Sunday, January 17, 2010


Better late than never, right?


The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win But Shouldn't: Up in the Air
Definitely Won't Win: Precious
Comments: This is a tough race to call. Where the Oscars might be down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, it's true that Up in the Air is very much still in play for the HFPA. Furthermore, Precious, which might make more sense for the Oscar then the Globe, takes a clear backseat here to the European sensibilities of Inglourious Basterds, which looms on the outside as a dark horse waiting to again rewrite history.


(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia

Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Could Win But Shouldn't: Julie & Julia
Definitely Won't Win: The Hangover
Comments: This could be the toughest race of the night to call. I would expect the Meryl Streep movies to split the vote. Julie & Julia seemed to be the more critically acclaimed film, but It's Complicated received a screenplay nod. The Hangover made the most money and seems to be the best liked, but it's the only nominee without a Best Actor or Actress nomination, and how many 40+ foreign journalists would really vote it as one of the two best movies of the year. Nine could benefit from the Harvey Weinstein campaign, plus the fact that it's the only musical in the category. That said, I can't shake the feeling that (500) Days of Summer was CLEARLY the best film in this category, and Globes voters would have to be blind not to see that.


Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: James Cameron
Could Win But Shouldn't: Quentin Tarantino
Definitely Won't Win: Clint Eastwood
Comments: This is a 2-person race, between ex-spouses Bigelow and Cameron. Bigelow is expected to win but Avatar is a worldwide phenomenon and I'd expect the HFPA to honor Cameron and his box office behemoth here. His self-designation as King of the World may prove true tonight.


Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers

Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: George Clooney
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jeff Bridges
Definitely Won't Win: Tobey Maguire

Comments: As much as I hope that Firth or Bridges will take this award, there's no denying that the HFPA is an organization of starfuckers that won't be able to resist having Clooney take the stage for playing a slight variation of himself.


Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win But Shouldn't: Sandra Bullock
Definitely Won't Win: Emily Blunt
Comments: This is between Bullock and Mulligan. Something tells me Bullock may prevail on Oscar night, if not Sidibe. But for some reason, I expect the HFPA to want to honor Mulligan with her first "BIG" award. Plus a football drama with a Southern lead doesn't sound like the voters' cup of tea.


Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man

Should Win: Matt Damon
Will Win: Matt Damon
Could Win But Shouldn't: Robert Downey Jr.
Definitely Won't Win: Michael Stuhlbarg
Comments: Day-Lewis always brings it but he almost made it look too easy. On the other hand, Damon gained a ton of weight and burrowed into the physical transformation required of his character. Gordon-Levitt was really excellent but it seems like the nomination could wind up being his reward. I think the HFPA would love to have Iron Man Downey Jr. on stage but Sherlock Holmes is probably too slight of an effort. Look for Damon, who is also nominated for Supporting Actor, to prevail, joining his Ocean's 11 pal Clooney in the winner's circle.


Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Could Win But Shouldn't: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Definitely Won't Win: Julia Roberts
Comments: This one is pretty much a lock. Cotillard was excellent but she wasn't in the movie that much. This is Streep's statue to lose. Her only competition is herself. Roberts led a non-starter of a movie. She's here for star appeal only. And Bullock will get a closer look for her performance in The Blind Side.


Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Could Win But Shouldn't: Woody Harrelson
Definitely Won't Win: Matt Damon
Comments: Lock it up. Nothing to say about this one.


Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Should Win: Mo'Nique
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Could Win But Shouldn't: Anna Kendrick
Definitely Won't Win: Julianne Moore
Comments: Ditto the above. It's a done deal, whether Mo'Nique likes it or not.


Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell - District 9
Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers - It's Complicated
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Definitely Won't Win: Nancy Meyers
Comments: This is a tough one. Up in the Air could pull it off, and don't count out Mark Boal. But something tells me it's Tarantino's turn. And frankly, he earned it.


Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog

Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
Could Win But Shouldn't: Coraline
Definitely Won't Win: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Comments: No contest. Fantastic Mr. Fox had a nice late surge but I don't think it will be enough to overthrow Pixar.


Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (La Nana) (Chile)
A Prophet (Un Prophete) (France)
The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band) (Germany)

Should Win: A Prophet
Will Win: A Prophet
Could Win But Shouldn't: The White Ribbon
Definitely Won't Win: Baaria
Comments: Never count out Pedro Almodovar but Broken Embraces never found awards traction stateside and A Prophet is a highly anticipated February release that won the Cannes Film Festival. The White Ribbon is a serious threat but something tells me that Haneke isn't for everyone.


Avatar - "I See You" by James Horner & Simon Franglen
Brothers - "Winter" by U2
Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind (Theme From 'Crazy Heart')" by Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Nine - "Cinema Italiano" by Maury Yeston
Everybody's Fine - "I Want To Come Home" by Paul McCartney

Should Win: Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Will Win: U2
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner & Simon Franglen
Definitely Won't Win: Maury Yeston
Comments: Will Globes voters be able to resist seeing U2 or Paul McCartnet onstage? I say no. Ryan Bingham's song is vital to Crazy Heart but country music may not be for most foreign journos. Avatar could definitely win even though Leona Lewis sings over the end credits and the song doesn't really match the rest of the movie.


Michael Giacchino - Up
Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant!
James Horner - Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski - A Single Man
Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are

Should Win: Abel Korzeniowski
Will Win: Michael Giacchino
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner
Definitely Won't Win: Karen O and Carter Burwell
Comments: I thought Avatar's score was particularly weak, while Korzeniowski's work sparkled in A Single Man. Horner is the heavy favorite but Giacchino is a rising superstar, and Up is just as well-liked as Avatar.

Agree? Disagree? Agree to disagree? Let me hear you in the comments below!

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