2010 MOVIE LIST ... 119 & COUNTING!

It's back again and better than ever!

THE STANDOUTS (19) - This should go without saying, but these are all must-sees... yes, even the animated sequel, the comic book adaptation, the foreign-language films and the are-they-real-or-not documentaries!

The Social Network ***1/2
Kick-Ass ***1/2
Toy Story 3 ***1/2
Black Swan ***1/2
Blue Valentine ***1/2
The Fighter ***1/2
Catfish ***1/2
Mesrine (Part I: Killer Instinct and Part II: Public Enemy No. 1) ***
Never Let Me Go***
The Ghost Writer ***
Exit Through the Gift Shop ***
Biutiful ***
127 Hours ***
Rabbit Hole ***
The King's Speech ***
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer ***
Mother ***
Winter's Bone ***
Carlos ***

THE GOOD (19) - You could argue with the lower half of this list but I think these movies represent quality filmmaking all-around.

The Kids Are All Right ***
The Town ***
Cyrus ***
Let Me In ***
Greenberg ***
Cell 211 ***
Green Zone ***
I Love You Phillip Morris ***
The Square ***
The Disappearance of Alice Creed ***
The American ***
The Next Three Days ***
I'm Still Here ***
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work ***
The Book of Eli ***
Conviction ***
Youth in Revolt ***
Middle Men ***
Louis C.K.: Hilarious ***

THE GOOD... BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (18) - Why weren't these movies better? I don't really know. But they should be. Hence, the name of this section.

Shutter Island ***
The Red Riding Trilogy (1974, 1980 and 1983) ***
True Grit ***
Barney's Version ***
The Company Men ***
Animal Kingdom ***
Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World ***
Splice ***
Tiny Furniture ***
Due Date **1/2
Easy A **1/2
Secretariat **1/2
Stone **1/2
Paranormal Activity 2 **1/2
7 Days **1/2
The Greatest **1/2
Winnebago Man **1/2
Raging Boll **1/2

THE GUILTY PLEASURES (23) - I just added a dozen movies to this part of the list when I realized that they were guilty pleasures. I shouldn't like them but I do, whether it's because I love crazy horror movies, or enjoy Tom Cruise when he's allowed to be charming, or like spending 90 minutes with Sandler, Spade and Salma Hayek's cleavage. Anyone could poke holes in my arguments but it wouldn't change the fact that I would still recommend all of these movies to my friends or anyone else looking to be entertained, if you consider something as creepy as The Poughkeepsie Tapes to be entertainment. Also, please note that just because these are "guilty pleasures," doesn't mean they're not great films. For the record, I loved Salt, Frozen and The Karate Kid. I only feel ashamed because the Internet tells me I'm supposed to.

Salt ***
I Spit On Your Grave ***
Frozen ***
The Karate Kid ***
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane ***
The Human Centipede ***
Jackass 3D ***
Machete ***
The Poughkeepsie Tapes ***
MacGruber ***
Grown Ups ***
Piranha 3D ***
Knight and Day **1/2
The Other Guys **1/2
Predators **1/2
Devil **1/2
The Crazies **1/2
Little Fockers **1/2
Hot Tub Time Machine **1/2
Takers **1/2
The Expendables **1/2
The Sorceror's Apprentice **1/2
Saw 3D **

THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (29) - Chalk it up to expectations but these movies just didn't cut it. They were all missing something vital, from Inception's character development to Get Him to the Greek's third act, or from a threatening villain in Despicable Me to more Mel Gibson swearing in Edge of Darkness. I'm embarrassed to have Inception and Cop Out on the same section of this list but both were, to me, underwhelming disappointments. I mean, I still thought Inception was good, and perhaps it belongs atop the Good But Should've Been Betters, but going into it, I was expecting a capital-G Great movie, and it didn't deliver on this promise, IMHO. It probably deserves it's own WTF category, but that sounds too generous. BTW, my entire opinion on Inception is subject to change upon an upcoming second viewing.

Inception ***
Dogtooth **1/2
Enter the Void **1/2
Get Him to the Greek **1/2
Despicable Me **1/2
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo **1/2
The Way Back **1/2
Date Night **1/2
Iron Man 2 **1/2
The Losers **1/2
The Wolfman **1/2
Edge of Darkness **
All Good Things **
The Loved Ones **
The Girl Who Played With Fire **
Unstoppable **
It's Kind of a Funny Story **
44-Inch Chest **
Dinner for Schmucks **
Operation: Endgame (DVD) **
Cropsey **
Brooklyn's Finest **
Nowhere Boy **
Cop Out **
Case 39 (Delta) *1/2
Two Gates of Sleep (AFI) *1/2
Daybreakers *1/2
Defendor *1/2
Tell-Tale (DVD) *

THE BAD (10) - For better or worse, I just don't know what these movies were thinking. Just horrendous decisions at every turn. Johan Grimonprez's Double Take (an experimental film, mind you) was only 80 minutes, yet it was more grueling to sit through than the 146-minute estrogen marathon known as the Sex and the City sequel. Meanwhile, Tim Burton has officially lost his mind, Michael Winterbottom's movie was as schizophrenic as its two-faced protagonist, and I could tell within the first 30 seconds of Elm St.'s opening credits that the movie was going to be a completely vapid and utterly pointless remake. Hopefully, Platinum Dunes has learned something from the Elm St. nightmare and apply it to future remakes of movies that don't need to be remade. As for Buried, I admire the effort, but I thought Ryan Reynolds was way out of his element and ultimately, he wasn't able to make a torturous experience any less painful.

Tron: Legacy *1/2
Sex and the City 2 *1/2
City Island *1/2
The Killer Inside Me *
Repo Men *
Buried *
Double Take *
Alice in Wonderland *
Somewhere *
A Nightmare on Elm St. 1/2*

THE UNGRADEABLE (1) - I cannot, in good conscience, assign a star rating to A SERBIAN FILM. It is the most fucked up movie I have ever seen, and as such, cannot be graded on a traditional scale. If I was forced to rate it, it would be a lot closer to four stars than no stars. But like I said, a star rating wouldn't do this movie justice, and would serve no purpose, since it can't be compared to any other movie that I've ever seen, let alone any of the films on this year's list.

HAVE SCREENERS FOR (12): Howl (need to finish), Leaves of Grass (need to finish) Get Low, The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest, Restrepo, The Tillman Story, Valhalla Rising, Centurion, Solomon Kane, Frankie & Alice, Hereafter, I Am Love

STILL HAVEN'T SEEN (1): Another Year

OOPS... I MISSED (17): The Secret in Their Eyes, The Last Exorcism, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, Four Lions, Welcome to the Rileys, RED, Megamind, Fair Game, Inside Job, Monsters, Made in Dagenham, Casino Jack, The Tourist, How Do You Know, Love and Other Drugs, Morning Glory, Solitary Man

2011 GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Real quick, for the record.

Best Picture - Drama

Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical

Alice in Wonderland
Easy A
How Do You Know
The Kids Are All Right
Love and Other Drugs

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception

Best Actor - Drama

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Best Actress - Drama

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

Jim Carrey, I Love You Phillip Morris
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Robert Downey Jr., Due Date
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Ben Stiller, Greenberg

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Julia Roberts, Eat Pray Love
Emma Stone, Easy A

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer
Matt Damon, True Grit
Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy

Best Screenplay

Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Seidler, The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Best Animated Feature

Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Original Score

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Inception

The InSneider's FINAL 2010 Oscar Predictions

The time has come. The hour is upon us. The red carpet is ready for Louboutins. I'm hoping to go 24/24, but I'll be happy with 20 correct predictions. Looking forward to a fun show with hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, and praying that The Ten Experiment pays off for the underdog/frontrunner. Without further ado, here are The InSneider's FINAL 2010 Oscar Predictions. You can thank me later.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar - 30%
The Blind Side - 1%
District 9 - 1%
An Education - 1%
The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 5%
A Serious Man - 1%
Up - 1%
Up in the Air - 10%

WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins, it'll be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever, but it has been steamrolling through the pre-cursors and should reap the rewards of the preferential voting system. Forgive the pun, but it'll come down to the wire.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - The highest grossing movie of all-time also helped usher Hollywood into a new technological age. It's a bona fide worldwide sensation, but its detractors may be too loud to overcome on Oscar night.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Without question, it was the best movie of the year, with characters you actually manage to care about. The most suspenseful film of the last decade and a great, edge-of-your-seat war film to boot.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER A SINGLE MAN. Why do people keep drinking the Coen Brothers' Kool-Aid? Even when it's good, it's still unsatisfying. A Single Man had feeling where A Serious Man had only self-loathing and contempt. Just spare me next time, OK?

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker - 60%
James Cameron, Avatar - 30%
Lee Daniels, Precious - 2%
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air - 1%
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds - 7%

WILL WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She'll be the first female filmmaker to win the award, and it's about damn time.
COULD WIN: JAMES CAMERON - Even I recognize what Cameron accomplished with Avatar. It's a milestone in cinema. But his ex-wife will almost certainly have the last laugh.
SHOULD WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She put me right there, in the suit with Jeremy Renner, and her movie knocked my socks off. She deserves it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: NEVERMIND. I can actually live with this slate of nominees, although TOM FORD (A Single Man) or MARC WEBB (500 Days of Summer) would've been nice...

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart - 80%
George Clooney, Up in the Air - 5%
Colin Firth, A Single Man - 5%
Morgan Freeman, Invictus - 0%
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker - 10%

WILL WIN: JEFF BRIDGES - He was legitimately great in Crazy Heart, but this is more of a Lifetime Achievement Award than anything else. Everyone in Hollywood has worked with him and loves him accordingly though, so expect him to take the stage tonight.
COULD WIN: JEREMY RENNER - Gave an explosive performance in the year's most admired movie. He anchored The Hurt Locker and if there's an upset waiting to happen in this category, it'll be Renner who ascends to the podium.
SHOULD WIN: COLIN FIRTH - Gave the single-best performance of the year in A Single Man. Lost a lot of momentum to Bridges and never recovered in the race. It's a shame.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MORGAN FREEMAN OVER ADAM SANDLER (Funny People) and ROBIN WILLIAMS (World's Greatest Dad). That's right. These guys actually put themselves out there and did something different for a change. Freeman as Mandela sounds nice on paper but it wasn't nearly as compelling as we all imagined it would be.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side - 40%
Helen Mirren, The Last Station - 0%
Carey Mulligan, An Education - 15%
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious - 15%
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia - 30%

WILL WIN: SANDRA BULLOCK - This race is between Bullock and Streep, and I think America's Sweetheart Sandy has this one in the bag. The Blind Side had my bitch-ass in tears throughout, but those glistening drops of saltwater weren't because of Bullock's world-class emoting or anything like that. I thought her performance was better than it had any right to be, and she definitely impressed me, but it paled in comparison to Julia Roberts' fiery turn in that other 'true story,' Erin Brockovich. Still, this is Bullock's Oscar to lose and I understand why.
COULD WIN: MERYL STREEP - The Godmother of the Oscars was very good as Julia Child, making an otherwise mediocre film not only tolerable, but downright enjoyable. That said, to reward her for Julie & Julia over her turn in last year's Doubt would be as unspeakable a crime as the one at the center of the latter film. Surely, I'm making a bad joke, but seriously, to put Julie & Julia in the history books with Sophie's Choice and Kramer vs. Kramer would be as funny as any joke in that half-good movie.
SHOULD WIN: GABOUREY SIDIBE - To be honest, the best performances in this category belonged to the newcomers, Sidibe and Mulligan, and if the Academy had any balls at all, they'd put Sidibe up on that stage. Mulligan was the young, pretty darling of the Oscar season, but Sidibe's performance was the one that stuck with me and challenged my preconceptions the most. Mo'Nique wasn't alone in those nightmarish scenes. We felt for that girl, Precious, and that's due to the skill, grace and complexity of Sidibe's startling performance.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HELEN MIRREN OVER ZOE SALDANA (Avatar), by default. I haven't seen The Last Station so I won't bother arguing for or against Mirren's performance. I've heard she's as excellent as her reputation implies, outshining even Tolstoy/Dr. Parnassus himself, Christopher Plummer. But Saldana was the heart and soul of Avatar, if Avatar in fact had a soul. Her motion-captured performance is the finest I've yet seen birthed in that medium. I could feel the humanity and sensitivity in Neytiri thanks to her. In the $400 million world of Pandora, she's what stood out.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon, Invictus - 0%
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger - 5%
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station - 5%
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones - 0%
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds - 90%

WILL WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - He managed to be alternately terrifying and hilarious as The Jew Hunter in Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. He's as good a lock to win as the Lakers. As a lifelong Celtics fan, I'm ashamed to admit I just wrote that. Or did I?
COULD WIN: WOODY HARRELSON - Showed a sensitive side beneath his tough military man exterior in The Messenger, and had a solid commercial year with Zombieland and 2012, but he's no match for Waltz.
SHOULD WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - Somebody pour this guy a delicious glass of cold milk already!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MATT DAMON OVER ANTHONY MACKIE (The Hurt Locker). Seriously, that is the biggest travesty of this year's nominations. Damon made for one of the least-inspiring sports team captains I've ever seen, and his accent was In 'N Out like the fast-food joint. It was a complete shock to hear his name last month, and to ignore Mackie's contribution to The Hurt Locker is a slap in the face to that film. Rant over.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Nine - 0%
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air - 2%
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart - 1%
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air 2%
Mo’Nique, Precious - 95%

WILL WIN: MO'NIQUE - She totally let herself go for the role and embraced the nastiness of her character. Straight up, Mo'Nique deserves this Oscar. Four years ago, after seeing Lee Daniels' Shadowboxer, I would've bet One Meeeeeelllion Dollars that I'd never type that sentence in my lifetime, but here we are, and I for one, am happy as hell for this voluptuous woman.
COULD WIN: VERA FARMIGA - She's building up quite a resume but even if Mo'Nique weren't such a dominant force, she'd probably fall victim to a split vote with co-star Anna Kendrick.
SHOULD WIN: MO'NIQUE! Clap your hands everybody! Now everybody clap your hands!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL OVER MELANIE LAURENT (Inglourious Basterds) AND MARION COTILLARD (Nine/Public Enemies). How do you steal not one but TWO! movies and still manage to go unnoticed? Crazy Heart was a one-man show and Gyllenhaal was fairly miscast. I didn't leave the theater thinking about her, and she should've been snubbed along with Julianne Moore (A Single Man) accordingly.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 30%
The Messenger - 5%
A Serious Man - 5%
Up - 20%

WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Most web pundits have argued that this is the closest race of the night, but if The Hurt Locker is really as beloved as it seems, I don't see how even Quentin Tarantino, who has already won this award for Pulp Fiction, mind you, can derail that freight/gravy train. Boal worked his ass off and literally put his life on the line to write that script. How do you not honor that kind of commitment?
COULD WIN: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS - If anyone is going to steal Boal's Oscar, I want it to be Quentin, whose script managed to reinvent World War II and make a rag-tag group of Jewish soldiers look positively bad-ass.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker couldn't be the Best Picture of the year without an Oscar-worthy screenplay, now could it?
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER 500 DAYS OF SUMMER. The Clint Eastwood myth is not real. The Academy doesn't go for everything the guy does. They're WAY too busy going for everything the Coen Brothers do. I mean, are you shitting me? A Serious Man was a what-the-fuck kinda movie, as in, a movie you walk out of saying to your friend/date/whoever, 'what the fuck was that?' This is a Best Picture nominee with a 10-minute Yiddish prologue. 500 Days of Summer spoke to my generation. The generation that was raised thinking we'd find love like some dork on a sitcom, or in a movie. We were sold a pack of lies, and 500 Days of Summer exposes the sad, ugly truth. There may not be such a thing as a soulmate, and we might have to deal with that at some point. It doesn't mistake practicality for cynicism. If anything, it promotes realism, and what that means to two people looking at their relationship from two very different perspectives.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

District 9 - 5%
An Education - 15%
In the Loop - 5%
Precious - 25%
Up in the Air - 50%

WILL WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Has been losing altitude but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.
COULD WIN: PRECIOUS - Has maintained its momentum throughout the season, to the point where I could see an upset, but something tells me Fletcher is too much of a newcomer here to knock off Reitman.
SHOULD WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Think of it as a consolation prize for being relegated to the bench in the Best Picture discussion.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER A SINGLE MAN. All due respect to District 9, which I generally liked but thought was remarkably overpraised/overrated, but who left District 9 talking about the script. I loved the ending and I'll grant its enthusiasts that, but for me, District 9 didn't reinvent the wheel of anything. Anyone who had been following Hollywood for the past few years couldn't have been THAT surprised by its 'surprise' success. A Single Man used words like daggers. It was a screenplay with soul, that was responsible for the best performance of the year, bar none (Colin Firth's). Again, this race is between Up in the Air and Precious. The former has been losing altitude while the latter has maintained its momentum throughout the season. I could see an upset, but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coraline - 5%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 15%
The Princess and the Frog - 5%
The Secret of Kells - 5%
Up - 70%

WILL WIN: UP - It's the only animated nominee with Best Picture and Best Screenplay nominations. 'Nuff said.
COULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Its late surge actually came too early, and Clooney/Streep were too busy campaigning for their other movies. An Adapted Screenplay nom would've helped, and its other nomination, for Best Original Score, won't be enough to help pull off the upset.
SHOULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Up was great for 20 minutes and forgettable for the next 70. Fantastic Mr. Fox had more charm in its protagonist's tail than that talking dog had in his. Don't get me started on this one.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Who cares? Pixar wins. The fix is in and the Academy is down with Up.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Burma VJ - 5%
The Cove - 60%
Food Inc. - 20%
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - 10%
Which Way Home - 5%

WILL WIN: THE COVE - A great documentary that actually managed to make the world a better place. Oscar is going to swim with The Cove team this year, and rightfully so.
COULD WIN: FOOD INC. - Food Inc. wasn't half the documentary The Cove was, and sadly, I think that's its main competition.
SHOULD WIN: THE COVE
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ANYTHING BESIDES THE COVE OVER ANVIL: THE STORY OF ANVIL. The Anvil! documentary was awesome and if you haven't seen it, you had to add it to your Netflix queue or rent it from your local video store before they go out of business. It embodied the American dream. Come to think of it, I think the Oscars would've benefited from an Anvil performance.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ajami (Israel) - 5%
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) - 0%
A Prophet (France) - 30%
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina) - 35%
The White Ribbon (Germany) - 30%

WILL WIN: THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES - A Prophet and The White Ribbon are the two best-known films and thus, the front-runners, but The Secret in Their Eyes has been getting rave revieWs, and could pull off the upset. We'll see when Quentin opens that envelope...
COULD WIN: THE WHITE RIBBON - Michael Haneke's confusing bit of ominous German business might've rubbed some voters the wrong way.
SHOULD WIN: A PROPHET - A truly great prison movie that might be a tad too violent for the prudish Academy.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I didn't seen enough foreign films this year, outside of horror movies on DVD. Let's just be thankful that THOSE don't get nominated for Oscars and move along peacefully, shall we?

BEST ART DIRECTION

Avatar - 60%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 15%
Nine - 0%
Sherlock Holmes - 25%
The Young Victoria - 0%

WILL WIN: AVATAR - They designed a new world, and that's pretty cool.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Victorian London looked pretty gnarly.
SHOULD WIN: THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS - Gilliam's movie was a nightmare but it looked like a wonderful dream.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: WHO CARES? This category bores the shit out of me.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar - 30%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 15%
The White Ribbon - 20%

WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Ackroyd's work was masterful and put you right in the sweat-soaked middle of Iraq.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - There were some some gorgeous shots, especially of Jake Sully flying. The fact that some voters won't be able to separate its computerized contributions could hurt it.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Cinema verite at its finest.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HARRY POTTER 6 OVER A SINGLE MAN. The cinematography in A Single Man is both brilliant and breathtaking, with the camera's color filters changing in accordance with George's disposition. I didn't see Harry Potter 6 but did it really look all that much nicer than Harry Potter 4 or 5. I doubt it...

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Bright Star - 20%
Coco Before Chanel - 20%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 10%
Nine - 10%
The Young Victoria - 40%

WILL WIN: THE YOUNG VICTORIA - Because the Academy loves Sandy Powell and Emily Blunt is a bigger movie star than Abbie Cornish.
COULD WIN: BRIGHT STAR - Janet Patterson is well liked in the industry, but was the movie?
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I only saw Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither of those were particularly Oscar-worthy in any regard.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ALL OF THOSE OVER INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. I haven't seen the girly movies on this list like Bright Star, The Young Victoria or Coco Before Chanel, but I truly loved the costumes on display in Inglourious Basterds, especially Brad Pitt's white tuxedo and Melanie Laurent's red dress. Va-va-voom, Shoshanna!

BEST EDITING

Avatar - 35%
District 9 - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 45%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 10%

WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The movie is all about creating suspense and tension, and the editing is what ratchets those up to almost unbearable levels.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Did Avatar even have an editor?
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins early in the night, it's a good sign that The Hurt Locker will also win Best Picture.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER STAR TREK. I relished the editing in Star Trek, which seemed to move at light-speed and certainly felt like the fastest movie of the year. I actually loved Dana Glauberman's work in Up in the Air, too. Didn't love District 9 but at least it wasn't 3 hours like some other overrated sci-fi movie on this list. The Precious editing is a love-it-or-hate-it thing but I respect its inclusion in this category, as it married some ugly images that were nonetheless profound within their unfortunate context.

BEST MAKEUP

Il Divo - 20%
Star Trek - 70%
The Young Victoria - 10%

WILL WIN: STAR TREK - With no District 9 to compete with, this one should be a cakewalk.
COULD WIN: IL DIVO - The Academy loves its old-age makeup.
SHOULD WIN: STAR TREK - Those Romulans were far out, dude!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: When I start crying about Make-Up awards, unplug my laptop and delete my life, OK. Star Trek takes this one for giving Eric Bana pointy ears.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Avatar - 15%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 5%
The Hurt Locker - 15%
Sherlock Holmes - 20%
Up - 45%

WILL WIN: UP - Giacchino delivered a memorable, fanciful score that made its silent opening sequence pure cinematic joy.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Hans Zimmer is a beloved veteran, and his twangy Sherlock score brought a unique flavor to that film.
SHOULD WIN: UP - Don't question it, just go with it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Avatar over A SINGLE MAN. Abel Korzeniowski was robbed! The guy composes maybe the lushest musical score of the year and he can't even crack the top 5, nor can Marvin Hamlisch, who came out of retirement to do the witty score for The Informant!. They even denied Giacchino a dual nomination by ignoring his work on Star Trek, which boldly reinvented that theme and kept that film propelling that blockbuster from one set piece to the next. Oh well... the Academy will make it up to him with an Oscar for Up.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett - 75%
Nine - 'Take It All' by Maury Yeston - 5%
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname by Wagner/Thomas - 0%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman - 10%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Down in New Orleans' by Randy Newman - 10%

WILL WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - The song drives the movie, and it's a good song too. How unusual!
COULD WIN: 'Down in New Orleans' from THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - When New Orleans is involved, anything is possible. Remember the Super Bowl?
SHOULD WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - It's the only song I've heard but I dug it so I will it well.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I'm just relieved that 'Stu's Song,' Ed Helms' ridiculous piano-driven ditty from THE HANGOVER, didn't get nominated.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Avatar - 50%
The Hurt Locker - 25%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Up - 10%

WILL WIN: AVATAR - Avatar is a good bet anywhere below-the-line.
COULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker will challenge Avatar everywhere below-the-line, except for Visual Effects, of course.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I don't know enough about sound to have an opinion, but another Hurt Locker win sounds pretty good to me.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. The nominees and I have reached a peaceful understanding.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Avatar - 40%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 10%

WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Whoa! I'm predicting a split in the sound categories! Crazier things have happened...
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Coulda, woulda, shoulda and probably will, but I like to be a contrarian.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. My opinion on sound is moot. Hoping the Academy 'mixes' it up, and gives The Hurt Locker team another Oscar to add to its tally.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. If I'm OK with it, you're OK with it. Although Transformers 2 was a true piece of shit and no one who worked on it has any business being inside the Kodak on Oscar night. This is all about that dude, Greg Russell, who gets nominated every year and has the same number of Oscars as I do. ZERO! Though one could make the case that because I worked as a production assistant on The Departed for one day, that I share in its Best Picture win.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar - 98%
District 9 - 1%
Star Trek - 1%

WILL WIN: AVATAR - The single biggest lock of the night, even more so than in the acting categories. Changed the way movies are made. Consolation prize for losing Best Picture to The Hurt Locker... I hope.
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: AVATAR
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: For shits and giggles, I'll say DISTRICT 9 OVER 2012. But really, I could give a shit. I just thought 2012 had some sweet, End of the World CGI-mayhem, while none of the visuals in District 9 had me doing backflips on the way out of the theater.

SHORT CUTS: I haven't seen any of these 15 films so these predictions are just total shots in the dark.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

French Roast - 20%
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty - 10%
The Lady and the Reaper - 0%
Logorama - 25%
A Matter of Loaf and Death - 45%

WILL WIN: Logorama - The Academy has to be sick of Nick Park's Wallace and Gromit series by now, right?
COULD WIN: A Matter of Loaf and Death - Then again, who doesn't like Wallace and Gromit?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - 30%
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner - 5%
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - 40%
Music by Prudence - 5%
Rabbit a la Berlin - 20%

WILL WIN: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - Timely and decidedly American.
COULD WIN: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - Emotional subject matter with far-reaching implications.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The Door - 25%
Instead of Abracadabra - 5%
Kavi - 25%
Miracle Fish - 40%
The New Tenants - 5%

WILL WIN: Kavi - Because I like the name. Sue me.
COULD WIN: Miracle Fish - Because trusted prognosticator Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is...) is predicting this one.

Post your predictions in the comment section below, and if you beat The InSneider, I'll see to it that you win a prize to be named later! Enjoy Oscar night and GO HURT LOCKER!

The InSneider's 2010 OSCAR NOMINATION ANALYSIS

Here's my scorecard, with analysis for every category. Capitalized movies were nominated and movies in parentheses are those that I predicted would be nominated and were not. And let me hear how you did in the comments section below!

NOTE: * indicates my early projection to win the Academy Award

BEST PICTURE (9/10)

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A SERIOUS MAN (Star Trek)
Up
Up in the Air

I was humming along with 7 in a row, and I finished strong with the last 2, but it was #8 that proved to be an insurmountable obstacle. Hours before I made my FINAL predictions, I had A Serious Man locked in as a Best Picture nominee. Then I spoke with a girl I trust and she convinced me that The Blind Side would be nominated. Considering its impressive box office and late-season heat, it wasn't a bad gamble. Because Star Trek was one of the 2-3 standouts of the first half of 2009 and most people liked it, I thought it had a chance at beating out the Coens' love-it or hate-it A Serious Man, which had encountered its own backlash, facing accusations of anti-Semitism. But the Coens prevailed over Capt. Spock and the gang. I suppose it was wishful thinking on my part. The Academy going for 3 sci-fi movies would be unusual, even for them. This race is still Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker and it's looking like the little guy could actually pull off the "upset."

BEST DIRECTOR (5/5)

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

What more is there to say, really? This is between Bigelow and her ex-husband, Mr. James "self-proclaimed 'King of the World'" Cameron.

BEST ACTOR (5/5)

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart*
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

No surprises here. This is Bridges' Oscar to lose at this point.

BEST ACTRESS (5/5)

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side*
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Again, nothing to bat an eyelash over. It's Bullock vs. Streep all over again, although I do think that Sidibe and Mulligan will get a higher percentage of the votes than they did at the Golden Globes. This is the one acting category to keep your eye on. Things could get interesting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (4/5)

MATT DAMON, INVICTUS (Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker)
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*

Simply an instance of wishful thinking on my part. I wrote from my heart, rather than my head. Mackie turned in the 2nd best supporting performance of the year but somehow got snubbed in favor of a completely forgettable Matt Damon performance that barely registered in a dull, uneven movie. This is a black eye for the Academy. Ridiculous! I understand why Freeman had to be nominated for playing Mandela, but Damon? C'mon, AMPAS! Over Molina and Sarsgaard too? Unacceptable! Waltz will waltz away with this one, no contest.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (3/5)

PENELOPE CRUZ, NINE (Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds)
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL, CRAZY HEART (Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds)
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious*

A couple of surprises here. Predicting both Inglourious actresses was obviously a long-shot on my part, but I wasn't expecting both of them to be snubbed, let alone by someone from Nine not named Marion Cotillard, who was easily the best thing about that movie. Still, I suppose Cruz was the next best and she's obviously beloved by the Academy, since this is her 3rd nomination in 4 years. Fox Searchlight did such a great job with the Crazy Heart campaign that up until the last minute, I thought it had a legit chance at a Best Picture nom. Gyllenhaal has been snubbed before, for Secretary and Sherrybaby, so maybe this was the Academy's way of making it up to her. I do think that she was better than Samantha Morton and Julianne Moore, so I'm fine with her recognition despite my disappointment that both Basterdesses were left out in the cold. Regardless, Mo'Nique takes this award without much of a fight.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (4/5)

The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
THE MESSENGER (500 Days of Summer)
A Serious Man
Up

Along with Mackie, the exclusion of Summer writers Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber was the most heartbreaking for me. I loved their movie and I was very surprised to see them snubbed in a category that Fox Searclight has had success with young writers in before. See Little Miss Sunshine's Michael Arndt and Juno's Diablo Cody. I quite liked The Messenger and would've liked to have seen it nominated over A Serious Man or Up, but it knocked my second-favorite screenplay of the year out of contention, leaving that excellent film with no nominations, same as me. A shame, but congrats to Oren Moverman and Alessandro Camon. Shocked to see the Academy honor two war-themed movies (3 if you count Basterds) here but then again, they are very different depictions. Expect The Hurt Locker's Mark Boal to walk away with the gold statue.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5)

DISTRICT 9 (Crazy Heart)
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air*

Crazy Heart had the WGA and the Scripter on its side but in the end the movie with the Best Picture nomination won out. So happy to see In the Loop here. It looks like the Brit contingent stood up for themselves, and it's a well-deserved nomination. Sad for A Single Man's Tom Ford, who wrote a touching adapted screenplay with David Searce. There's been a lot of bad press swirling around Up in the Air's Jason Reitman but this award is his and Sheldon Turner's to lose.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (4/5)

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
THE SECRET OF KELLS (Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs)
Up*

Find me someone who went 5/5 in this category. I dare you. This was the biggest surprise of the morning. I don't even know what The Secret of Kells is! I thought it was a filler submission so there could be 5 nominees this year. Congrats to Tomm Moore I suppose! Pixar's Up still has this in the bag, although Wes Anderson's Fantastic Mr. Fox will give it a run for its money.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (2/5)

Burma VJ
The Cove*
FOOD, INC. (The Beaches of Agnes)
THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS (Every Little Step)
WHICH WAY HOME (Mugabe and the White African)

See what happens when you don't know the nominees? You get burned! I had a feeling that the Daniel Ellsberg documentary was going to get in. Should've gone with that over Mugabe and the White African. Really thought Every Little Step was going to make the cut here. Surprised to see Food, Inc. in the field. I did see that one and I had some problems with it. The Cove should swim away with Oscar gold on the big night.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (4/5)

Ajami - Israel
THE MILK OF SORROW - PERU (Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands)
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany*

The three locks delivered and Israel found the support it needed for Ajami. Winter in Wartime just got picked up by SPC which made me think it'd be a bit more accessible, which is exactly what I've heard The Milk of Sorrow wasn't. In the end, the Netherlands' loss was Peru's gain. It's always a tough category to predict, and Haneke isn't for everyone, but barring an upset, his White Ribbon has the Oscar wrapped up.

BEST ART DIRECTION (2/5)

Avatar*
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
NINE (Inglourious Basterds)
Sherlock Holmes
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (Star Trek)

Not one of my best categories. Dr. Parnassus was a trendy pick here early in the season and I don't know why I forgot about it. Oh wait, yes I do. It was a horrible movie. But I'm happy to give credit where credit is due and yes, Terry Gillim's movie looked great and brought the funky weirdness. Surprised to see The Young Victoria here and not Basterds but what do I know. The blockbuster guesses did not pay off. Tsk tsk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)

Avatar
HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE (Nine)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

I've never seen a Harry Potter movie and I don't care to start now. Hadn't really heard a single mention about the cinematography in the latest HP sequel. This one came completely out of left-field, but at least it bumped out Nine, which for all its bells and whistler, still looked visually drab and plastic. No clue who takes this award, other than I feel confident saying it won't be Harry Potter 6. A lot of different styles on display here. Good variety. A fun category that pits Avatar directly against The Hurt Locker.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5)

Bright Star*
COCO BEFORE CHANEL (Inglourious Basterds)
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Sherlock Holmes)
Nine
The Young Victoria

Not bad, although I'm puzzled as to why Inglourious Basterds isn't here. Then again, I've only seen Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither one was a good movie, so perhaps that's where my bias stems from. Still, all of these nominees seem awfully alike with the exception of the wacky Dr. Parnassus. A total toss-up for me.

BEST EDITING

Avatar
DISTRICT 9 (Star Trek)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
PRECIOUS (Up in the Air)

Kinda shocked to see Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman missing here. Thought she was a can't miss lock. Not surprised District 9 got the nod over Star Trek. Thought some of those cuts in Precious were a little curious to say the least, but I guess the Academy went for its daring choices and artistic flourishes.

BEST MAKEUP (1/3)

IL DIVO (District 9)
Star Trek*
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus)

The Young Victoria's inclusion here came as a surprise, more so than Il Divo, which I still have to see. Apparently Toni Servillo's aging is remarkable. I'll pass and revisit this category at a later date...

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (2/5)

Avatar
FANTASTIC MR. FOX (The Informant!)
THE HURT LOCKER (A Single Man)
SHERLOCK HOLMES (Star Trek)
Up*

So Giacchino didn't pull off the rare double nomination but he's still the front-runner for his wonderful work on Up. The Hurt Locker is the big surprise in this category. I've been a fan of Marco Beltrami's since the Scream days, right up to 3:10 to Yuma. He's paid his dues and it was nice to see him rewarded with a second nomination. He really added to the tension of Bigelow's film. This category could provide a minor surprise on Oscar night. Keep an ear out!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG (2/5)

Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett*
NINE - TAKE IT ALL BY MAURY YESTON (Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston)
PARIS 36 - LOIN DE PANAME BY WAGNER/THOMAS (Avatar - 'I See You' by L. Lewis/J. Horner)
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - 'DOWN IN NEW ORLEANS' BY RANDY NEWMAN (An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley)

I feign ignorance on Disney's The Princess and the Frog. Should've expected two nominations from that one. And I definitely haven't seen Paris 36, let alone listened to any original music from the movie. Picked the wrong song from Nine too. Tough category. Oh well. No U2 or Paul McCartney could leave the door open for a "crazy" win by Ryan Bingham and previous Oscar nominee T Bone Burnett.

BEST SOUND EDITING (3/5)

Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
UP (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)

I thought Up would get one of these nods, which is why I had it as the alternate pick in both categories. No idea why Basterds got these nods over District 9 and to be honest, I don't really care. The only people who do are sound editors and mixers. Avatar takes both of these, right?

BEST SOUND MIXING (4/5)

Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

See above.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3/3)

Avatar*
District 9
Star Trek

Avatar takes this in a cakewalk. It has a date with destiny in this category, I'm afraid.

The InSneider's FINAL 2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The Time is upon us. Nomination Tuesday. There may be a few laughs. There will probably be a few tears. There will definitely be a few surprises. But unfortunately, there will not be any blood, unless Twilight: New Moon is nominated for Best Picture. Then I might be compelled to kill indiscriminately.

For "reel" though folks, tomorrow's Best Picture nominees are anyone's guess. Guys like Kris Tapley, Steve Pond and Dave Karger know better than I, but the bottom line is that none of us have a vote, and with 10 Best Picture nominees this year and a new preferential voting system, the once-predictable Academy is capable of anything. So let's give it our best shot, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

ALT: The Hangover

I'd say there are 7 locks in this race and they're not who you might think. The vulnerable three are The Blind Side, Star Trek and oddly enough, Up, in that order from least to most. I really feel that District 9 is a lock and that Blomkamp is a Lee Daniels-backlash away from a Best Director nomination. It's Complicated, The Hangover, The Messenger, Invictus, Nine, The White Ribbon and (500) Days of Summer could all slide in here and shake up the landscape for the Big Prize. I think it really boils down to the consensus... what movies did everyone agree to like. A Serious Man is a polarizing film. Some love it, others hate it. That won't fly with Oscar... I think. Up wasn't nearly as beloved as Wall-E, which famously failed to land a nomination, bu the expansion to 10 nominees seems pre-designed to help Pixar escape the nomination ghetto.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9

This category is pretty much sewn up. I don't think Blomkamp will be nominated for his first feature, and even though Daniels hasn't won over many people on the publicity circuit, he deserves credit for pulling off a tricky adaptation of difficult material. If there's a dark horse, it's Austrian helmer Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon. An Education helmer Lone Scherfig is an ultra-long shot.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

ALT: Matt Damon, The Informant!

This one is all but set in stone. If there's a weak link, it's Morgan Freeman who seems content to coast on his reputation at this point in his career, but the lure of him as Mandela will be too strong for voters to resist. Some feel The Road's Viggo Mortensen or The Messenger's Ben Foster could pull off a surprise nomination but if anyone sneaks into the field, it'll be Damon, who has hasn't been nominated since Good Will Hunting despite 13 years of steadily impressive work.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Again, I think you can take this category to the bank. It's possible that a lot of voters didn't see The Last Station but I think Mirren has enough support in the ranks. It'll be close but she should hang on against young upstarts Blunt and Abbie Cornish.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

ALT: Alfred Molina, An Education

UPSET ALERT! The Academy, as a group, is not dumb, nor is it blind. To ignore Anthony Mackie's stellar work in The Hurt Locker would be a crime on par with the nomination of Johnny Depp for Best Actor in Pirates of the Caribbean. Jeremy Renner would never have given the performance that he did, if Mackie didn't push him in every scene. Kathryn Bigelow would not be winning all these awards if Mackie didn't bring his A-game to the set every day. I think the Academy ends up recognizing his invaluable contributions. Molina's heat has been fading fast, especially with his co-star Peter Sarsgaard also competing in the category. If anyone else slips in under the radar, it could be Christian McKay whose portrayal of Orson Welles in Me & Orson Welles won raves across the board. Alec Baldwin has also been popping up on some lists but I think they'll only capacity in which you'll see him at the Oscars will be as co-host with Steve Martin. It would be embarrassing if Matt Damon got nominated here for Invictus in the same year he gave a better performance in the superior film The Informant!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious

ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man

UPSET ALERT! This is me going way out on a limb. Kruger got the SAG nomination but Laurent was clearly the heart and soul of Inglourious Basterds. The two foreign actresses could cancel each other out, or support for Basterds could overwhelm the mighty trio of Moore, Crazy Heart's Maggie Gyllenhaal and The Messenger's Samantha Morton. Meanwhile, Nine and its lovely ladies, including Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz, seems to have fallen off dramatically. As much as I loved A Single Man, I just don't see what was so special about Moore's performance, but if she is nominated, it'll likely be over one of the Basterdesses and Oscar darling Samantha Morton.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

ALT: Avatar

UPSET ALERT! Why is it such a given that Pixar's Up will be nominated here? Outside of its first 10 minutes, it's a completely forgettable film. Will that heartbreaking first sequence be enough to overpower the box office behemoth known as Avatar. I'm also not sure why The Coen Brothers are considered locks, but if the film finds enough support for a Best Picture nomination, then that passion will carry over to this category. If not, we could see The Messenger, The White Ribbon or possibly The Hangover. History says that since James Cameron wasn't nominated for Titanic, he's liable to miss out again this year. Not surprising since Avatar's strong suit wasn't its screenplay. On the other hand, you don't make $2 billion worldwide with a shitty script...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

An Education
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

ALT: District 9

UPSET ALERT! Tough category. Crazy Heart and In the Loop are not sure bets at all, and A Single Man, District 9, Julie & Julia or Fantastic Mr. Fox could very well take one of those two spots. But something tells me the Brits will assert their influence in this category and give In the Loop the boost it needs, and none of the three sci-fi Best Picture nominees will score writing nods, but they'll all score visual effects nods. I don't think the Star Trek duo of Kurtzman and Orci should get there hopes up here despite scoring WGA nods, although that recognition is a good sign for Crazy Heart writer/director Scott Cooper.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

ALT: Ponyo

The Academy loves Miyazaki but something tells me that tomorrow's forecast will be Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which earned surprising critical acclaim and made a mint at the box office. Mary and Max and A Town Called Panic loom as long-shot contenders.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African

ALT: Food, Inc.

UPSET ALERT! I've got a feeling that Food Inc. will find itself on the outside looking in. The Daniel Ellsburg documentary could find its way into this field too. The Cove is the only real lock here but I admittedly haven't seen enough of the movies shortlisted for this award. Scott Feinberg is predicting four different movies in addition to The Cove, so clearly I know nothing.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ajami - Israel
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany
Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands

ALT: The Milk of Sorrow - Peru

Call it a hunch. This is as much about the movies as it is the countries submitting them, which makes me think Israel's Ajami will get a nomination over Peru's The Milk of Sorrow, which itself could invade The Netherlands' spot. But Winter in Wartime just got theatrical distribution which makes me think it will score a nod after all, plus I've read that Peru's entry is pretty abstract. A Prophet and The White Ribbon will surely make the cut, as should Argentina's entry The Secret in Their Eyes.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek

ALT: A Serious Man

Could The Lovely Bones finally find some love here? It's possible, but something tells me Avatar and Basterds are locked, and Sherlock Holmes is a strong #3. I expect Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek to show up before Jess Gonchor's solid work in A Serious Man, while District 9 remains a serious possibility here.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon

ALT: The Road

A Serious Man's Roger Deakins is always a threat here, and for my money, A Single Man featured the best cinematography of the year. But The Road's Javier Aguirresarobe could be the one who benefits if Nine registers as a zero with the Academy. It's definitely the one wearing the bulls-eye on its back in this category.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

ALT: Coco Before Chanel

Shame that A Single Man isn't getting more attention for its classy threads, but so it goes for a film that has been criminally ignored this season. The most memorable costumes of the year, in my opinion, were Melanie Laurent's red dress and Brad Pitt's white tux in Inglourious Basterds. The stars of Nine basked in the glow of its high fashion, while the other three nominees all satisfy the Victorian quotient.

BEST EDITING

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up in the Air

ALT: District 9

Something tells me that A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer will draw the short straws in this category, especially if all three of the sci-fi films score Best Picture nominations. I thought Alan Edward Bell did a great job handling Summer's unique structure and successfully charting the peaks and valleys of that doomed relationship. If the Coens are, for some reason, ignored in the Original Screenplay category, a consolation nomination could manifest itself here under their editing alias Roderick Jaynes. I give Star Trek the nod over District 9 because it felt like the fastest film of the year to me, although both could get in if Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke pays the price for his long, talky scenes. Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman is a well-respected pro so she's definitely in.

BEST MAKEUP

District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

ALT: Il Divo

Oscar loves its actors who age but the work in District 9 and Star Trek is too showy to be ignored, and I'd "imagine" Dr. Parnassus will steal that third spot thanks to Terry Gilliam's wacky vision.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up

ALT: Sherlock Holmes

UPSET ALERT! Another tricky category. I bet Michael Giacchino scores a well-deserved double nomination here for his work on Star Trek and Up, although the latter is the safer bet. Hans Zimmer was ineligible last year for The Dark Knight, so he could get some sympathy love for his work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat did some delightful work in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Hamlisch's marvelous score for The Informant! could be a critics-only thing but I think the veteran composer will hear his name, along with Abel Korzeniowski, whose work in A Single Man was the single best of the year. James Horner's Avatar score was actively forgettable but I doubt he'll be denied, especially since the Academy's orchestra will be playing his music all evening.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Avatar - 'I See You' by Leona Lewis and James Horner
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley
Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman

ALT: 'Down in New Orleans' from The Princess and the Frog

I really have no idea how this one goes, as the Music Branch is a fuckin' fickle bunch. If I was concerned about TV ratings, I would nominate U2 for singing "Happy Birthday" at this point. Crazy Heart's Bingham is guaranteed a nomination, as is Randy Newman, although I haven't heard any songs from that soundtrack so I'm not exactly a qualified expert. The Leona Lewis track at the end of Avatar was tacky and didn't really fit with the rest of the movie but Avatar has to get double-digit nominations somehow, right?

BEST SOUND EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

ALT: Up

Who knows? Who cares? This is for the stat-padders.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

ALT: Up

Ditto. Except for the ongoing story about Transformers mixer Greg Russell, who has been nominated something like 11 times without winning once.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

ALT: 2012

2012 featured non-stop mayhem but something tells me that black hole in Star Trek will be the difference. Plus it was, you know, a good movie. The flashy effects of Transformers 2 could also sneak in here over District 9.

APPRX. FINAL TALLY:

Avatar - 10
Inglourious Basterds - 10
The Hurt Locker - 9
Star Trek - 7
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 5
Precious - 5
An Education - 4
Up - 4
Crazy Heart - 3
Nine - 3
The Blind Side - 2
The Last Station - 2
The Princess and the Frog - 2
Sherlock Holmes - 2
A Single Man - 2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 2
The White Ribbon - 2
(500) Days of Summer - 1
Ajami - 1
The Beaches of Agnes - 1
Bright Star - 1
Burma VJ - 1
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - 1
Coraline - 1
The Cove - 1
Every Little Step - 1
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 1
The Informant! - 1
In the Loop - 1
Invictus - 1
Julie & Julia - 1
The Lovely Bones - 1
The Messenger - 1
Mugabe and the White Elephant - 1
A Prophet - 1
The Secret of Their Eyes - 1
A Serious Man - 1
Winter in Wartime - 1
The Young Victoria - 1

2009 MOVIE LIST... 132 and Counting

So we meet again, old friend...

THE STANDOUTS (16) - Just great movies that you'd have to be crazy to neither appreciate nor enjoy.

The Hurt Locker ***1/2
Inglourious Basterds ***1/2
500 Days of Summer ***1/2
A Single Man ***1/2
Anvil! The Story of Anvil ***1/2
Humpday ***1/2
Fish Tank ***1/2
Capitalism: A Love Story ***1/2
Where the Wild Things Are ***
The Cove ***
Up in the Air ***
Sugar ***
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire ***
Away We Go ***
Funny People ***
The Hangover ***

THE GOOD (31) - These movies met or exceeded my admittedly high expectations, whether those are unfair or not.

Brothers ***
The Road ***
The Messenger ***
Red Cliff (Part I - DVD Import) ***
Watchmen ***
More Than a Game ***
In the Loop ***
The Blind Side ***
The Soloist ***
Everybody's Fine ***
An Education ***
The Informant! ***
Paranormal Activity ***
Fantastic Mr. Fox ***
Taken ***
Star Trek ***
Rudo y Cursi ***
Zombieland ***
Adventureland ***
I Love You, Man ***
The Collector ***
The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans ***
The Girlfriend Experience ***
Collapse ***
Big Fan ***
State of Play ***
Bruno ***
The Escapist ***
Mystery Team ***
Lymelife ***
Black Dynamite ***

THE GOOD BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (23) - Enjoyable enough but missing some crucial element.

Avatar ***
The White Ribbon **1/2
Up ***
Crazy Heart ***
District 9 ***
The Chaser ***
The Baader Meinhof Complex ***
Public Enemies ***
That Evening Sun ***
Julie & Julia ***
Tyson **1/2
Moon **1/2
Tetro **1/2
The Burning Plain **1/2
Coraline **1/2
The Great Buck Howard **1/2
The International **1/2
Whip It **1/2
Jennifer's Body **1/2
Bronson **1/2
The House of the Devil **1/2
Food Inc. **1/2
The Missing Person **1/2

THE GUILTY PLEASURES (24) - Most people will rag on these but they exceeded my modest expectations.

Martyrs ***
The Informers ***
Sherlock Holmes ***
World's Greatest Dad **1/2
Antichrist **1/2
Surveillance **1/2
Fanboys **1/2
Land of the Lost **1/2
Orphan **1/2
Crank 2: High Voltage **1/2
Law Abiding Citizen **1/2
Obsessed **1/2
The Killing Room (DVD) **1/2
Next Day Air **1/2
G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra **1/2
X-Men Origins: Wolverine **1/2
The Last House on the Left **1/2
Spread **1/2
Extract **1/2
Surrogates **1/2
The Slammin' Salmon **
Weapons (DVD) **
Paul Blart: Mall Cop **
Fired Up **

THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (28) - Failed to meet my reasonable expectations, or just generally unsatisfying.

A Serious Man **1/2
The Lovely Bones **1/2
Nine **1/2
Observe and Report **1/2
Invictus **1/2
Duplicity **1/2
Taking Woodstock **1/2
Thirst **1/2
Armored **
Knowing **
Paper Heart **
Drag Me to Hell **
The Box **
Angels and Demons **
Monsters vs. Aliens **
A Perfect Getaway **
Friday the 13th **
The Taking of Pelham 123 **
Couples Retreat **
The Brothers Bloom **
Year One **
The Goods: Live Hard Sell Hard **
Whatever Works *1/2
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus *1/2
Grace *1/2
The Marc Pease Experience *1/2
Brief Interviews With Hideous Men *1/2
Bart Got a Room *1/2

THE ACTIVELY BAD (10) - Not good movies AT ALL, and anyone who tries to argue otherwise is WRONG.

2012 *1/2
My Bloody Valentine 3-D *1/2
Horsemen *1/2
The Stepfather *1/2
Terminator Salvation *1/2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen *1/2
Pandorum *
Halloween II *
Amusement (DVD) *
Balls Out: Gary the Tennis Coach (DVD) *

DVD - Direct-to-DVD title

COMING SOON (3): A Prophet, Saw VI, Franklyn (DVD)

THE INSNEIDER'S FINAL GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Better late than never, right?

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win But Shouldn't: Up in the Air
Definitely Won't Win: Precious
Comments: This is a tough race to call. Where the Oscars might be down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, it's true that Up in the Air is very much still in play for the HFPA. Furthermore, Precious, which might make more sense for the Oscar then the Globe, takes a clear backseat here to the European sensibilities of Inglourious Basterds, which looms on the outside as a dark horse waiting to again rewrite history.

BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL

(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Could Win But Shouldn't: Julie & Julia
Definitely Won't Win: The Hangover
Comments: This could be the toughest race of the night to call. I would expect the Meryl Streep movies to split the vote. Julie & Julia seemed to be the more critically acclaimed film, but It's Complicated received a screenplay nod. The Hangover made the most money and seems to be the best liked, but it's the only nominee without a Best Actor or Actress nomination, and how many 40+ foreign journalists would really vote it as one of the two best movies of the year. Nine could benefit from the Harvey Weinstein campaign, plus the fact that it's the only musical in the category. That said, I can't shake the feeling that (500) Days of Summer was CLEARLY the best film in this category, and Globes voters would have to be blind not to see that.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: James Cameron
Could Win But Shouldn't: Quentin Tarantino
Definitely Won't Win: Clint Eastwood
Comments: This is a 2-person race, between ex-spouses Bigelow and Cameron. Bigelow is expected to win but Avatar is a worldwide phenomenon and I'd expect the HFPA to honor Cameron and his box office behemoth here. His self-designation as King of the World may prove true tonight.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers

Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: George Clooney
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jeff Bridges
Definitely Won't Win: Tobey Maguire

Comments: As much as I hope that Firth or Bridges will take this award, there's no denying that the HFPA is an organization of starfuckers that won't be able to resist having Clooney take the stage for playing a slight variation of himself.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA

Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win But Shouldn't: Sandra Bullock
Definitely Won't Win: Emily Blunt
Comments: This is between Bullock and Mulligan. Something tells me Bullock may prevail on Oscar night, if not Sidibe. But for some reason, I expect the HFPA to want to honor Mulligan with her first "BIG" award. Plus a football drama with a Southern lead doesn't sound like the voters' cup of tea.

BEST ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL

Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man

Should Win: Matt Damon
Will Win: Matt Damon
Could Win But Shouldn't: Robert Downey Jr.
Definitely Won't Win: Michael Stuhlbarg
Comments: Day-Lewis always brings it but he almost made it look too easy. On the other hand, Damon gained a ton of weight and burrowed into the physical transformation required of his character. Gordon-Levitt was really excellent but it seems like the nomination could wind up being his reward. I think the HFPA would love to have Iron Man Downey Jr. on stage but Sherlock Holmes is probably too slight of an effort. Look for Damon, who is also nominated for Supporting Actor, to prevail, joining his Ocean's 11 pal Clooney in the winner's circle.

BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL

Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Could Win But Shouldn't: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Definitely Won't Win: Julia Roberts
Comments: This one is pretty much a lock. Cotillard was excellent but she wasn't in the movie that much. This is Streep's statue to lose. Her only competition is herself. Roberts led a non-starter of a movie. She's here for star appeal only. And Bullock will get a closer look for her performance in The Blind Side.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Could Win But Shouldn't: Woody Harrelson
Definitely Won't Win: Matt Damon
Comments: Lock it up. Nothing to say about this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Should Win: Mo'Nique
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Could Win But Shouldn't: Anna Kendrick
Definitely Won't Win: Julianne Moore
Comments: Ditto the above. It's a done deal, whether Mo'Nique likes it or not.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell - District 9
Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers - It's Complicated
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air

Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Definitely Won't Win: Nancy Meyers
Comments: This is a tough one. Up in the Air could pull it off, and don't count out Mark Boal. But something tells me it's Tarantino's turn. And frankly, he earned it.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
Could Win But Shouldn't: Coraline
Definitely Won't Win: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Comments: No contest. Fantastic Mr. Fox had a nice late surge but I don't think it will be enough to overthrow Pixar.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (La Nana) (Chile)
A Prophet (Un Prophete) (France)
The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band) (Germany)

Should Win: A Prophet
Will Win: A Prophet
Could Win But Shouldn't: The White Ribbon
Definitely Won't Win: Baaria
Comments: Never count out Pedro Almodovar but Broken Embraces never found awards traction stateside and A Prophet is a highly anticipated February release that won the Cannes Film Festival. The White Ribbon is a serious threat but something tells me that Haneke isn't for everyone.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Avatar - "I See You" by James Horner & Simon Franglen
Brothers - "Winter" by U2
Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind (Theme From 'Crazy Heart')" by Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Nine - "Cinema Italiano" by Maury Yeston
Everybody's Fine - "I Want To Come Home" by Paul McCartney

Should Win: Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Will Win: U2
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner & Simon Franglen
Definitely Won't Win: Maury Yeston
Comments: Will Globes voters be able to resist seeing U2 or Paul McCartnet onstage? I say no. Ryan Bingham's song is vital to Crazy Heart but country music may not be for most foreign journos. Avatar could definitely win even though Leona Lewis sings over the end credits and the song doesn't really match the rest of the movie.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Michael Giacchino - Up
Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant!
James Horner - Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski - A Single Man
Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are

Should Win: Abel Korzeniowski
Will Win: Michael Giacchino
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner
Definitely Won't Win: Karen O and Carter Burwell
Comments: I thought Avatar's score was particularly weak, while Korzeniowski's work sparkled in A Single Man. Horner is the heavy favorite but Giacchino is a rising superstar, and Up is just as well-liked as Avatar.

Agree? Disagree? Agree to disagree? Let me hear you in the comments below!

Predicting the WGA Nominations

I didn't bother to predict the DGA or PGA nominations because, frankly, who cares? But the WGAs have always been a bit more interesting to me so let's take a stab at them. But first, a look at the movies that are ineligible this year for one reason or another.

Original: Adam, Antichrist, Broken Embraces, Capitalism: A Love Story, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, Inglourious Basterds, The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond, Me and Orson Welles, Moon, Ponyo, The Princess and the Frog, Trucker, Up, The White Ribbon

Adapted: Angels & Demons, Coco Before Chanel, The Damned United, District 9, An Education, Everybody’s Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, In the Loop, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Red Cliff, The Road, A Single Man, That Evening Sun, A Woman in Berlin

With that settled, here are my predictions for Best Original Screenplay:

(500) Days of Summer - Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Bright Star - Jane Campion
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
A Serious Man - Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Sugar - Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden

It's tough to ignore the box office goliath that is Avatar here but James Cameron's screenplay isn't its strong suit. I realize that Titanic got a nomination here but that was a classy period piece. I think the WGA snubs Cameron and lets others have their day... Jon Lucas and Scott Moore's The Hangover is a close call but there were several other comedies this year with more graceful screenplays, such as Judd Apatow's Funny People, Greg Mottola's Adventureland, Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick's Zombieland and Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida's Away We Go. None of them had quite the same fresh perspective and perverse insight as (500) Days of Summer though... I gave Two Lovers some consideration, as well as The Messenger, with both being critics' darlings, but in the end, I gave that spot to Sugar. At the end of the day, it was the better movie. I think if The White Ribbon were eligible it would snag that 5th slot so instead I gave it to a wholly different foreign language film... If there are any other serious contenders, they'd have to be Nancy Meyers for It's Complicated, and Lynn Shelton for Humpday, which was rather brilliant. I think Bright Star gets a nod here since Campion has won the award before in 1993 for The Piano.

Moving on, here are my predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Blind Side - John Lee Hancock
Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher
Star Trek - Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Where the Wild Things Are - Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers

There's a lot of prestige sitting on the sidelines here but what can you do? Invictus, The Lovely Bones and Nine were all major letdowns, critically as much as commercially. The second tier of flopped "prestige" pics include Brothers and The Soloist... The Informant! is a close call here but that movie seems to have been forgotten, and those who remember immediately recall Matt Damon's performance before Scott Z. Burns' screenplay... The Last Station has to be in play here, as well as two more likely nominees in Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia, but for some reason, I think the WGA honors the moneymakers like The Blind Side and Star Trek. Where the Wild Things Are is my hip arthouse pick.

If I hit 7/10, I'll be happy. It's a very unpredictable field when you take into account all the ineligible screenplays. Best of luck to all the writers out there!

If I Had An OSCAR Ballot...

...It would look something like this. Please keep in mind that while I loved certain movies (like ANVIL! and HUMPDAY, which were two of the top-10 movies of 2009 in my humble opinion) there's no way I could legitimately vote for them for Best Picture. These have to be SOMEWHAT realistic choices, otherwise there would be no point to this exercise. Also, I have abstained from voting in categories which I am ill-informed about (like Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Makeup, Original Song) or could not find five choices for due to my lack of familiarity with the possible nominees (Foreign Language, all shorts categories). Feel free to show off your own Oscar ballot in the comments section below, and thanks in advance for reading. I hope you enjoy my picks.

Note: An asterisk (*) denotes my vote to WIN.

BEST PICTURE

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man
Sugar
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Tom Ford, A Single Man
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Adam Sandler, Funny People
Robin Williams, World's Greatest Dad

BEST ACTRESS

Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
Zoe Saldana, Avatar
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Michael Fassbender, Fish Tank
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard, Nine/Public Enemies
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious*

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(500) Days of Summer
Away We Go
Humpday
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

An Education
In the Loop
A Single Man*
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox*
Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Anvil! The Story of Anvil*
Capitalism: A Love Story
Collapse
The Cove
More Than a Game

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man*
The White Ribbon

BEST EDITING

(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek*
Up in the Air

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Inglourious Basterds*
Nine
A Single Man
Watchmen
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Hurt Locker
The Informant!
A Single Man*
Star Trek
Up

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar*
Star Trek
Watchmen

BEST ENSEMBLE (not an actual award)

Fish Tank
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
In the Loop
The White Ribbon

FINAL TALLY (out of 16):

Inglourious Basterds - 4 (Supp. Actor, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Ensemble)
A Single Man - 4 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score)
The Hurt Locker - 2 (Picture, Director)
Precious - 2 (Actress, Supp. Actress)
Anvil! The Story of Anvil - 1 (Documentary)
Avatar - 1 (Visual Effects)
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1 (Animated Feature)
Star Trek - 1 (Editing)

2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: NEW YEAR'S PULSE

It's 2010 and you know what that means... it's time to take the pulse of this year's Oscar race and revise my predictions accordingly. But first, here are the Top 5 Biggest Questions Heading Into the Home Stretch:

1. Q: Does Pixar's UP have a Best Picture nomination in the bag?
A: Beyond its first 20 minutes, I thought UP was pretty disappointing. It more or less already has the Oscar for Best Animated Feature (although FANTASTIC MR. FOX is coming on strong), so personally, I'd like to see another movie take its place in The Ten. That said, a Best Picture nomination is looking more and more likely as late releases like INVICTUS, NINE and THE LOVELY BONES are turning up DOA at the holiday box office.

2. Q: Can A SINGLE MAN win over enough voters to secure a Best Picture nomination?
A: God, I hope so... but probably not. I'm not hearing/seeing the traction it needs outside of Colin Firth's magnificent performance, which in my humble opinion is, without rival, the best of the year. The movie itself just isn't getting the attention it deserves. Harvey Weinstein should stop spending on NINE and start "paying" attention to Tom Ford's debut.

3. Q: What's the deal with THE LAST STATION? Did anybody actually see this movie? Are Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer both sure things?
A: I haven't seen THE LAST STATION but Mirren/Plummer are really messing up my predictions. Mirren I can live with because, well, she's Helen Mirren and I'm not that passionate about the lead actresses who would be left out (although I never saw Tilda Swinton in JULIA). But a "career achievement" nomination for Plummer? C'mon! There are a lot of deserving actors this year whose careers would definitely be helped by a supporting nomination. Can't we just pretend this movie never happened and nominate Emily Blunt or Abbie Cornish (or preferably Maya Rudolph from AWAY WE GO) for Best Actress and either Alfred Molina or Peter Sarsgaard from AN EDUCATION (or BROTHERS' Tobey Maguire or FISH TANK's Michael Fassbender)?

4. Q: Speaking of Best Supporting Actor, that's the deepest race this year. Can THE HURT LOCKER'S Anthony Mackie sneak in?
A: I think so. THE HURT LOCKER was by far the best movie of the year and Mackie was the cast's standout. Jeremy Renner may drive the movie's action but Mackie is the picture's heart and soul. It's a breakout performance that deserves to be properly recognized. But again, he's up against some tough competition, and the press seems to be seizing on Woody Harrelson and Alec Baldwin's late heat for THE MESSENGER and IT'S COMPLICATED, respectively.

5. Q: Does INVICTUS merit any attention outside of Morgan Freeman's lead performance, and is there any debate in the Best Actor category?
A: INVICTUS was a total rush job by Clint Eastwood that failed as a sports movie and as a movie about Nelson Mandela, so no, it deserves to be ignored with the exception of Freeman, who wasn't even that great as Mandela but nonetheless was good enough in a weak field. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis in NINE, but both awards season veterans should find enough good will to secure nominations. It'd be an Oscar travesty if Jeremy Renner isn't nominated for carrying THE HURT LOCKER. He's probably the last guy in but that's OK since there's not really a sixth man threatening his position. The predicted five should be safe.

Without further ado, here are The InSneider's latest predictions for the 82nd Academy Awards. Let's take a look, shall we?


BEST PICTURE

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

ALT: A Single Man

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

ALT: None

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

ALT: Tobey Maguire, Brothers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious

ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man

ALT: Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

An Education
District 9
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air

ALT: Julie & Julia

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

ALT: Ponyo

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African

ALT: Food, Inc.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man

ALT: The White Ribbon

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up

ALT: Sherlock Holmes

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
The Young Victoria

ALT: Public Enemies

BEST ART DIRECTION

The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
A Serious Man

ALT: Star Trek

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

ALT: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

The (Non-Doc/Foreign/Short) Contenders: 9, 500 Days of Summer, Amelia, An Education, Antichrist, Anvil: The Story of Anvil, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, The Boys Are Back, Bright Star, Broken Embraces, Bronson, Brothers, Bruno, Capitalism: A Love Story, Cheri, A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Coco Before Chanel, Collapse, Coraline, The Cove, Crazy Heart, Crude, The Damned United, District 9, Everybody's Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Fish Tank, Food Inc., Funny People, The Hangover, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Humpday, The Hurt Locker, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, The Informant!, Inglourious Basterds, In the Loop, Invictus, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Moon, Nine, Ponyo, Precious, The Princess and the Frog, Public Enemies, The Road, A Serious Man, A Single Man, Sin Nombre, The Soloist, Star Trek, The Stoning of Soraya M., Sugar, Taking Woodstock, Terminator Salvation, Tetro, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Up in the Air, Valentino: The Last Emperor, Watchmen, Whatever Works, Where the Wild Things Are, The White Ribbon, The Young Victoria