Monday, January 21, 2008

The OFFICIAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

Our Oscar nomination predictions for Variety's office pool were due on Friday so here's what I submitted. Keep in mind, this is what I think will be nominated on Tuesday, not what SHOULD be nominated. Every year prognosticators offer up their expert predictions and every year Oscar yields plenty of surprises, so I tried to account for that unpredictable thinking with my picks. There were no alternates allowed on the sheet but I decided to offer them up for fun anyways. I'm also offering up a No, Really? nominee in selected categories for nominees that for some reason or other I don't think should be nominated. Here goes nothing. Oh, and an asterisk (*) indicates what I think will eventually win come Oscar night.

Best Picture:
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood*

Alt: Michael Clayton
No, Really?: Juno (box office leader but there's a well-deserved backlash)

Best Director (same 5 as Best Picture)
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*
Joe Wright, Atonement

Alt: David Fincher, Zodiac
No, Really?: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton (first movie and it was a little slow)

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood*
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Alt: James McAvoy, Atonement
No, Really?: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises (way better in A History of Violence)

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en rose*
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

Alt: Laura Linney, The Savages
No, Really?: Keira Knightley, Atonement (pretty face but a surface-level performance)

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men*
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Alt: Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No, Really?: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War (one great scene, not much else)

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There*
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Alt: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
No, Really?: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild (c'mon, are you kidding me? brian dierker outshone her)

Best Adapted Screenplay (same 5 as Best Picture)
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly*
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Alt: James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
No, Really?: Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War (the very definition of an uneven movie)

Best Original Screenplay
Brad Bird, Ratatouille*
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Alt: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Jason Schwartzman, The Darjeeling Limited
No, Really?: Steve Zaillian, American Gangster (classic example of a good but not great movie, and the script was painted in broad strokes)

Best Original Score (NOTE: The Academy has disqualified There Will Be Blood and Into the Wild so I have amended their inclusion. Such a shame...)
Dario Marianelli, Atonement*
Paul Cantelon, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
Alexandre Desplat, Lust, Caution
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille

Alt: Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma
No, Really?: Howard Shore, Eastern Promises (forgettable)



Best Costume Design
Atonement*
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Lust, Caution
Sweeney Todd

Alt: La Vie en rose
No, Really?: Across the Universe (even the costumes couldn't distract me from the mess onscreen)

Best Editing
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men*
There Will Be Blood

Alt: The Assassination of Jesse James...
No, Really?: The Bourne Ultimatum (slow down there Chris, let my eyes process what the hell I'm seeing before you cut to another shot for .0001 seconds)

Tiebreakers (total nominations WITHOUT GOING OVER):

Sweeney Todd: 4
Atonement: 6
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: 4
Michael Clayton: 6

2 comments:

Daniel G. said...

Wow, great call on Brian Dierker. I forgot about him, but you're right. I still think Keener was good enough, though.

JB said...

interesting jeff... check my timestamp, i come here first after the nominations come out. you are my hollywood insider. nice looking stuff, but a lotta your not reallys hit. but at least you had them on the radar.

lets get some reax to the actual nominations later today