I've been putting off making this list because I consider these types of things so terribly final, when really they're just snapshots in time, as memories evolve. Sometimes you just happen to make up your mind 3 hours before you leave for Sundance, which really kicks off the new year in terms of moviegoing. Without further ado... here goes nothing. Send all hate mail to theinsneider@gmail.com, and please excuse the cop-outs.
10. (tie) ATTACK THE BLOCK and SUPER 8
Joe Cornish, come on down! You're the next contestant on MAJOR HOLLYWOOD DIRECTOR! I thought this movie was overhyped... and then I saw it. The classic movie it reminded me of? Ghostbusters. John Boyega is a star in the making. The Basement Jaxx score was sick! The monsters were simply designed yet they looked really cool. Just a wildly entertaining alien invasion movie set in a unique location. And it was made on the cheap, not that I think about a movie's budget while I watch.
On the other end of the spectrum lies Super 8, the movie Steven Spielberg probably wishes he directed this year, and I say that as a fan of War Horse. J.J. Abrams is batting .1000 in my book. While this movie had its share of 3rd act problems, everything around it was gold. Just pure cinema. Another movie about filmmaking involving kids, only unlike Hugo, it's actually fun to watch. Joel Courtney is a nice find & Elle Fanning was every bit as good as Shailene Woodley in The Descendants. Loved its opening frames, the train crash, the gas station scene, the projector scene, the love triangle, the friendships, the score. Hell, i even dug the locket device. Only next time J.J., cool it with those lens flares. Seriously.
9. (tie) BELLFLOWER and HESHER
Evan Glodell & Spencer Susser are filmmakers to watch, or rather, listen to, since they each have a unique voice. These movies are a little messy but life's edges are never smooth. Joseph Gordon-Levitt just goes for it in Hesher & Devin Brochu impressed the hell out of me considering how much is asked of him. Plus it featured music by Metallica, which is the quickest way to my heart.
Bellflower also features some bitchin' mood music. I had no idea what I was sitting down to see when I caught this at Sundance with my occasional Twitter sparring partner but eternal idol Drew McWeeny, and I think I can safely say that both of us were blown away. Just raw and real and bat-shit insane. I mean, it's protagonist is named Woodrow for fuck's sake! But I loved it. Long live Medusa!
8. CONTAGION
It played even better on second viewing. Loved the end, when Steven Soderbergh reveals how all the storylines tie together. It made me think, which is more than I can say about most movies. And that prom scene? Touching stuff. This was so much more than a star-studded disaster flick. Let's just pray it's not the future.
7. YOUNG ADULT
I'm not a huge Diablo Cody fan but I'll be damned if this isn't one of the best scripts of the year. I'll put it this way: This is my favorite movie from Jason Reitman, who has improved his storytelling skills with each movie he has made. Charlize Theron gives the best female performance I saw all year. Like she did in Monster, for which she won an Oscar, the South African beauty just goes for it here and plays the character as written, warts and all. Patton Oswalt has never been better and their odd couple relationship was genuinely affecting to watch, perhaps because I have a couple friendships like that, with girls who wouldn't give me the time of day back in high school. I'm glad some things change, even if the characters in this movie don't, which in my opinion, is the whole point.
6. MONEYBALL
Steven Soderbergh leaving to go direct like 4 other movies is the best thing that ever happened to this film, because director Bennett Miller knocked it out of the park. Easily my favorite film from a major studio this year. Glad to see Brad Pitt get some recognition for his tricky performance here, because I've long felt that he's an underrated actor overshadowed by his looks, which isn't as bad a problem as it sounds. He works wonders with the subtle nuances in this material and thank God that Jonah Hill was up to the challenge of standing toe-to-toe with him. Both these guys deserve Oscar nominations, and who would've said that 2 years ago? Even the dude who played David Justice was good! And that score is great in a Social Network kind of way.
5. 50/50
Not many movies can balance comedy and tragedy as skillfully as this. JGL once again stands out as a kid my age who's diagnosed with some crazy cancer. I was a little underwhelmed emotionally for the first hour as the main character tries to play it cool, but when the gravity of the situation hits him... it's simply devastating. Joe deserves the same Oscar nod Jesse Eisenberg earned last year. He's among the finest actors of his generation. I hear he owes it all to French Stewart. HA! Rogen and Bryce are great in supporting roles, and Anna Kendrick is still quite good as Anna Kendrick. Jonathan Levine continues to grow as a filmmaker and this is evidence of his eye-opening evolution. Let's give Will Reiser credit too. Not only did he write a script, he beat cancer! I smell awards in his future...
4. I SAW THE DEVIL
Forget The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, this is the best serial killer thriller of the year. It's a long subtitled movie but you never feel the running time. The violence comes fast and furious, but in order for it to have the impact it does, you have to be emotionally invested in the characters. Can't say enough good things about this one, which is crying out for an English-language remake at Warner Bros. with 2 of either Leo, Ben or Matt. Take your pick. Leo was supposed to play Patrick Bateman back in the day and is now developing a movie about H.H. Holmes, so clearly he's open to playing a serial killer. After all, Brad Pitt did it 20 years ago,,,
3. DRIVE
The coolest movie of the year starring the coolest actor of the year, who counts 3 solid movies and 1 broken-up fight on his 2011 resume. I went as Ryan Gosling's character Driver for Halloween. Albert Brooks was mahvelous playing against type. Oscar Isaac owns the screen during his limited screentime. Perlman has the perfect face to play such a menacing Joombah. Nicolas Winding Refn pulled off 2 of the best scenes of the year in addition to curating its best soundtrack, I've seen it 4 times and I'm already ready for #5. Now the $64,000 question: To sequel or not to sequel?
2. WIN WIN
Saw it at Sundance and it has stayed with me ever since. Tom McCarthy wrote the best screenplay of the year. Paul Giamatti is excellent, as usual (The Ides of March just missed the cut for this list), but Bobby Cannavale steals this movie along with naturalistic newcomer Alex Shaffer, who has a bright future ahead of him. This is a smartly observed slice of modern day life. Financial problems, family turmoil, and good old-fashioned wrestling. How can you not like this movie!
1, WARRIOR
There can only be one champion and this is undoubtedly it. I cried the first time and was still crying the 4th time. Maybe it's because I have 2 brothers but I found this sports story remarkably moving. Sure it's built on some classic cliches, but those exist for a reason. Tom Hardy is a certified star and his scene with a drunk Nick Nolte should be used for the latter's Oscar clip, provided he lands the nomination he deserves. The only problem with this movie are the cutaways to those annoying high school kids. Otherwise, it's an overlooked masterpiece of machismo. A stunning finale, which like Win Win, takes advantage of The National's strange power. Bravo to Gavin O'Connor! Rent it on DVD, since I doubt you caught it in theaters. It's inexplicable that this failed to catch on with mainstream audiences. I loved it.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
BRETT RATNER'S OPEN LETTER TO HOLLYWOOD
Dear Colleagues,
Over the last few days, I’ve gotten a well-deserved earful from many of the people I admire most
in this industry expressing their outrage and disappointment over the hurtful and stupid things I
said in a number of recent media appearances. To them, and to everyone I’ve hurt and
offended, I’d like to apologize publicly and unreservedly.
As difficult as the last few days have been for me, they cannot compare to the experience of any
young man or woman who has been the target of offensive slurs or derogatory comments. And
they pale in comparison to what any gay, lesbian, or transgender individual must deal with as
they confront the many inequalities that continue to plague our world.
So many artists and craftspeople in our business are members of the LGBT community, and it
pains me deeply that I may have hurt them. I should have known this all along, but at least I
know it now: words do matter. Having love in your heart doesn’t count for much if what comes
out of your mouth is ugly and bigoted. With this in mind, and to all those who understandably
feel that apologies are not enough, please know that I will be taking real action over the coming
weeks and months in an effort to do everything I can both professionally and personally to help
stamp out the kind of thoughtless bigotry I’ve so foolishly perpetuated.
As a first step, I called Tom Sherak this morning and resigned as a producer of the 84th
Academy Awards telecast. Being asked to help put on the Oscar show was the proudest
moment of my career. But as painful as this may be for me, it would be worse if my association
with the show were to be a distraction from the Academy and the high ideals it represents.
I am grateful to GLAAD for engaging me in a dialogue about what we can do together to
increase awareness of the important and troubling issues this episode has raised and I look
forward to working with them. I am incredibly lucky to have a career in this business that I love
with all of my heart and to be able to work alongside so many of my heroes. I deeply regret my
actions and I am determined to learn from this experience.
Sincerely,
Brett Ratner
Over the last few days, I’ve gotten a well-deserved earful from many of the people I admire most
in this industry expressing their outrage and disappointment over the hurtful and stupid things I
said in a number of recent media appearances. To them, and to everyone I’ve hurt and
offended, I’d like to apologize publicly and unreservedly.
As difficult as the last few days have been for me, they cannot compare to the experience of any
young man or woman who has been the target of offensive slurs or derogatory comments. And
they pale in comparison to what any gay, lesbian, or transgender individual must deal with as
they confront the many inequalities that continue to plague our world.
So many artists and craftspeople in our business are members of the LGBT community, and it
pains me deeply that I may have hurt them. I should have known this all along, but at least I
know it now: words do matter. Having love in your heart doesn’t count for much if what comes
out of your mouth is ugly and bigoted. With this in mind, and to all those who understandably
feel that apologies are not enough, please know that I will be taking real action over the coming
weeks and months in an effort to do everything I can both professionally and personally to help
stamp out the kind of thoughtless bigotry I’ve so foolishly perpetuated.
As a first step, I called Tom Sherak this morning and resigned as a producer of the 84th
Academy Awards telecast. Being asked to help put on the Oscar show was the proudest
moment of my career. But as painful as this may be for me, it would be worse if my association
with the show were to be a distraction from the Academy and the high ideals it represents.
I am grateful to GLAAD for engaging me in a dialogue about what we can do together to
increase awareness of the important and troubling issues this episode has raised and I look
forward to working with them. I am incredibly lucky to have a career in this business that I love
with all of my heart and to be able to work alongside so many of my heroes. I deeply regret my
actions and I am determined to learn from this experience.
Sincerely,
Brett Ratner
Sunday, February 27, 2011
The InSneider's Top 10 and Worst 10 of 2010
Earlier this evening, Entertainment Weekly's John Young posted a Top 10 list that reminded me I hadn't formally posted one of my own.
Seven of John's Top 10 films made my own list, and I haven't seen I AM LOVE (his #10) or WAITING FOR SUPERMAN (his #8), though I have screeners of both. Clearly we have very similar taste in movies, as the only one we seem to disagree on is INCEPTION. While I admire Christopher Nolan's mind-bending original vision, I can't say I was a huge fan of his multi-layered narrative, which ultimately left me cold.
Without further ado, here are The InSneider's Top 10 Films of 2010, as well as the Worst 10 Films of 2010. Feel free to weigh in with your own in the comments section.
TOP 10
Honorable Mention: THE KING'S SPEECH, A SERBIAN FILM and MESRINE (PART I: KILLER INSTINCT & PART II: PUBLIC ENEMY NO. 1)
10. THE GHOST WRITER
9. EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP
8. NEVER LET ME GO
7. CATFISH
6. THE FIGHTER
5. BLUE VALENTINE
4. BLACK SWAN
3. TOY STORY 3
2. KICK-ASS
1. THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WORST 10
Dishonorable Mention: DEFENDOR, DAYBREAKERS and CASE 39
10. TRON: LEGACY
9. SEX AND THE CITY 2
8. CITY ISLAND
7. THE KILLER INSIDE ME
6. REPO MEN
5. BURIED
4. DOUBLE TAKE
3. ALICE IN WONDERLAND
2. SOMEWHERE
1. A NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET
Seven of John's Top 10 films made my own list, and I haven't seen I AM LOVE (his #10) or WAITING FOR SUPERMAN (his #8), though I have screeners of both. Clearly we have very similar taste in movies, as the only one we seem to disagree on is INCEPTION. While I admire Christopher Nolan's mind-bending original vision, I can't say I was a huge fan of his multi-layered narrative, which ultimately left me cold.
Without further ado, here are The InSneider's Top 10 Films of 2010, as well as the Worst 10 Films of 2010. Feel free to weigh in with your own in the comments section.
TOP 10
Honorable Mention: THE KING'S SPEECH, A SERBIAN FILM and MESRINE (PART I: KILLER INSTINCT & PART II: PUBLIC ENEMY NO. 1)
10. THE GHOST WRITER
9. EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP
8. NEVER LET ME GO
7. CATFISH
6. THE FIGHTER
5. BLUE VALENTINE
4. BLACK SWAN
3. TOY STORY 3
2. KICK-ASS
1. THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WORST 10
Dishonorable Mention: DEFENDOR, DAYBREAKERS and CASE 39
10. TRON: LEGACY
9. SEX AND THE CITY 2
8. CITY ISLAND
7. THE KILLER INSIDE ME
6. REPO MEN
5. BURIED
4. DOUBLE TAKE
3. ALICE IN WONDERLAND
2. SOMEWHERE
1. A NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
FINAL 2011 OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Live from Sundance for the record...
BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
ALT: Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
ALT: Jeff Bridges, True Grit
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
ALT: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
ALT: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
ALT: Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
ALT: Rabbit Hole
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
ALT: The Illusionist
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Client 9
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
ALT: Waste Land
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
ALT: 127 Hours
BEST EDITING
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
ALT: How to Train Your Dragon
BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
ALT: Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
ALT: Jeff Bridges, True Grit
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
ALT: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
ALT: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
ALT: Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
ALT: Rabbit Hole
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
ALT: The Illusionist
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Client 9
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
ALT: Waste Land
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
ALT: 127 Hours
BEST EDITING
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
ALT: Blue Valentine
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
ALT: How to Train Your Dragon
Friday, December 31, 2010
2010 MOVIE LIST ... 119 & COUNTING!
It's back again and better than ever!
THE STANDOUTS (19) - This should go without saying, but these are all must-sees... yes, even the animated sequel, the comic book adaptation, the foreign-language films and the are-they-real-or-not documentaries!
The Social Network ***1/2
Kick-Ass ***1/2
Toy Story 3 ***1/2
Black Swan ***1/2
Blue Valentine ***1/2
The Fighter ***1/2
Catfish ***1/2
Mesrine (Part I: Killer Instinct and Part II: Public Enemy No. 1) ***
Never Let Me Go***
The Ghost Writer ***
Exit Through the Gift Shop ***
Biutiful ***
127 Hours ***
Rabbit Hole ***
The King's Speech ***
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer ***
Mother ***
Winter's Bone ***
Carlos ***
THE GOOD (19) - You could argue with the lower half of this list but I think these movies represent quality filmmaking all-around.
The Kids Are All Right ***
The Town ***
Cyrus ***
Let Me In ***
Greenberg ***
Cell 211 ***
Green Zone ***
I Love You Phillip Morris ***
The Square ***
The Disappearance of Alice Creed ***
The American ***
The Next Three Days ***
I'm Still Here ***
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work ***
The Book of Eli ***
Conviction ***
Youth in Revolt ***
Middle Men ***
Louis C.K.: Hilarious ***
THE GOOD... BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (18) - Why weren't these movies better? I don't really know. But they should be. Hence, the name of this section.
Shutter Island ***
The Red Riding Trilogy (1974, 1980 and 1983) ***
True Grit ***
Barney's Version ***
The Company Men ***
Animal Kingdom ***
Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World ***
Splice ***
Tiny Furniture ***
Due Date **1/2
Easy A **1/2
Secretariat **1/2
Stone **1/2
Paranormal Activity 2 **1/2
7 Days **1/2
The Greatest **1/2
Winnebago Man **1/2
Raging Boll **1/2
THE GUILTY PLEASURES (23) - I just added a dozen movies to this part of the list when I realized that they were guilty pleasures. I shouldn't like them but I do, whether it's because I love crazy horror movies, or enjoy Tom Cruise when he's allowed to be charming, or like spending 90 minutes with Sandler, Spade and Salma Hayek's cleavage. Anyone could poke holes in my arguments but it wouldn't change the fact that I would still recommend all of these movies to my friends or anyone else looking to be entertained, if you consider something as creepy as The Poughkeepsie Tapes to be entertainment. Also, please note that just because these are "guilty pleasures," doesn't mean they're not great films. For the record, I loved Salt, Frozen and The Karate Kid. I only feel ashamed because the Internet tells me I'm supposed to.
Salt ***
I Spit On Your Grave ***
Frozen ***
The Karate Kid ***
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane ***
The Human Centipede ***
Jackass 3D ***
Machete ***
The Poughkeepsie Tapes ***
MacGruber ***
Grown Ups ***
Piranha 3D ***
Knight and Day **1/2
The Other Guys **1/2
Predators **1/2
Devil **1/2
The Crazies **1/2
Little Fockers **1/2
Hot Tub Time Machine **1/2
Takers **1/2
The Expendables **1/2
The Sorceror's Apprentice **1/2
Saw 3D **
THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (29) - Chalk it up to expectations but these movies just didn't cut it. They were all missing something vital, from Inception's character development to Get Him to the Greek's third act, or from a threatening villain in Despicable Me to more Mel Gibson swearing in Edge of Darkness. I'm embarrassed to have Inception and Cop Out on the same section of this list but both were, to me, underwhelming disappointments. I mean, I still thought Inception was good, and perhaps it belongs atop the Good But Should've Been Betters, but going into it, I was expecting a capital-G Great movie, and it didn't deliver on this promise, IMHO. It probably deserves it's own WTF category, but that sounds too generous. BTW, my entire opinion on Inception is subject to change upon an upcoming second viewing.
Inception ***
Dogtooth **1/2
Enter the Void **1/2
Get Him to the Greek **1/2
Despicable Me **1/2
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo **1/2
The Way Back **1/2
Date Night **1/2
Iron Man 2 **1/2
The Losers **1/2
The Wolfman **1/2
Edge of Darkness **
All Good Things **
The Loved Ones **
The Girl Who Played With Fire **
Unstoppable **
It's Kind of a Funny Story **
44-Inch Chest **
Dinner for Schmucks **
Operation: Endgame (DVD) **
Cropsey **
Brooklyn's Finest **
Nowhere Boy **
Cop Out **
Case 39 (Delta) *1/2
Two Gates of Sleep (AFI) *1/2
Daybreakers *1/2
Defendor *1/2
Tell-Tale (DVD) *
THE BAD (10) - For better or worse, I just don't know what these movies were thinking. Just horrendous decisions at every turn. Johan Grimonprez's Double Take (an experimental film, mind you) was only 80 minutes, yet it was more grueling to sit through than the 146-minute estrogen marathon known as the Sex and the City sequel. Meanwhile, Tim Burton has officially lost his mind, Michael Winterbottom's movie was as schizophrenic as its two-faced protagonist, and I could tell within the first 30 seconds of Elm St.'s opening credits that the movie was going to be a completely vapid and utterly pointless remake. Hopefully, Platinum Dunes has learned something from the Elm St. nightmare and apply it to future remakes of movies that don't need to be remade. As for Buried, I admire the effort, but I thought Ryan Reynolds was way out of his element and ultimately, he wasn't able to make a torturous experience any less painful.
Tron: Legacy *1/2
Sex and the City 2 *1/2
City Island *1/2
The Killer Inside Me *
Repo Men *
Buried *
Double Take *
Alice in Wonderland *
Somewhere *
A Nightmare on Elm St. 1/2*
THE UNGRADEABLE (1) - I cannot, in good conscience, assign a star rating to A SERBIAN FILM. It is the most fucked up movie I have ever seen, and as such, cannot be graded on a traditional scale. If I was forced to rate it, it would be a lot closer to four stars than no stars. But like I said, a star rating wouldn't do this movie justice, and would serve no purpose, since it can't be compared to any other movie that I've ever seen, let alone any of the films on this year's list.
HAVE SCREENERS FOR (12): Howl (need to finish), Leaves of Grass (need to finish) Get Low, The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest, Restrepo, The Tillman Story, Valhalla Rising, Centurion, Solomon Kane, Frankie & Alice, Hereafter, I Am Love
STILL HAVEN'T SEEN (1): Another Year
OOPS... I MISSED (17): The Secret in Their Eyes, The Last Exorcism, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, Four Lions, Welcome to the Rileys, RED, Megamind, Fair Game, Inside Job, Monsters, Made in Dagenham, Casino Jack, The Tourist, How Do You Know, Love and Other Drugs, Morning Glory, Solitary Man
THE STANDOUTS (19) - This should go without saying, but these are all must-sees... yes, even the animated sequel, the comic book adaptation, the foreign-language films and the are-they-real-or-not documentaries!
The Social Network ***1/2
Kick-Ass ***1/2
Toy Story 3 ***1/2
Black Swan ***1/2
Blue Valentine ***1/2
The Fighter ***1/2
Catfish ***1/2
Mesrine (Part I: Killer Instinct and Part II: Public Enemy No. 1) ***
Never Let Me Go***
The Ghost Writer ***
Exit Through the Gift Shop ***
Biutiful ***
127 Hours ***
Rabbit Hole ***
The King's Speech ***
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer ***
Mother ***
Winter's Bone ***
Carlos ***
THE GOOD (19) - You could argue with the lower half of this list but I think these movies represent quality filmmaking all-around.
The Kids Are All Right ***
The Town ***
Cyrus ***
Let Me In ***
Greenberg ***
Cell 211 ***
Green Zone ***
I Love You Phillip Morris ***
The Square ***
The Disappearance of Alice Creed ***
The American ***
The Next Three Days ***
I'm Still Here ***
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work ***
The Book of Eli ***
Conviction ***
Youth in Revolt ***
Middle Men ***
Louis C.K.: Hilarious ***
THE GOOD... BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (18) - Why weren't these movies better? I don't really know. But they should be. Hence, the name of this section.
Shutter Island ***
The Red Riding Trilogy (1974, 1980 and 1983) ***
True Grit ***
Barney's Version ***
The Company Men ***
Animal Kingdom ***
Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World ***
Splice ***
Tiny Furniture ***
Due Date **1/2
Easy A **1/2
Secretariat **1/2
Stone **1/2
Paranormal Activity 2 **1/2
7 Days **1/2
The Greatest **1/2
Winnebago Man **1/2
Raging Boll **1/2
THE GUILTY PLEASURES (23) - I just added a dozen movies to this part of the list when I realized that they were guilty pleasures. I shouldn't like them but I do, whether it's because I love crazy horror movies, or enjoy Tom Cruise when he's allowed to be charming, or like spending 90 minutes with Sandler, Spade and Salma Hayek's cleavage. Anyone could poke holes in my arguments but it wouldn't change the fact that I would still recommend all of these movies to my friends or anyone else looking to be entertained, if you consider something as creepy as The Poughkeepsie Tapes to be entertainment. Also, please note that just because these are "guilty pleasures," doesn't mean they're not great films. For the record, I loved Salt, Frozen and The Karate Kid. I only feel ashamed because the Internet tells me I'm supposed to.
Salt ***
I Spit On Your Grave ***
Frozen ***
The Karate Kid ***
All the Boys Love Mandy Lane ***
The Human Centipede ***
Jackass 3D ***
Machete ***
The Poughkeepsie Tapes ***
MacGruber ***
Grown Ups ***
Piranha 3D ***
Knight and Day **1/2
The Other Guys **1/2
Predators **1/2
Devil **1/2
The Crazies **1/2
Little Fockers **1/2
Hot Tub Time Machine **1/2
Takers **1/2
The Expendables **1/2
The Sorceror's Apprentice **1/2
Saw 3D **
THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (29) - Chalk it up to expectations but these movies just didn't cut it. They were all missing something vital, from Inception's character development to Get Him to the Greek's third act, or from a threatening villain in Despicable Me to more Mel Gibson swearing in Edge of Darkness. I'm embarrassed to have Inception and Cop Out on the same section of this list but both were, to me, underwhelming disappointments. I mean, I still thought Inception was good, and perhaps it belongs atop the Good But Should've Been Betters, but going into it, I was expecting a capital-G Great movie, and it didn't deliver on this promise, IMHO. It probably deserves it's own WTF category, but that sounds too generous. BTW, my entire opinion on Inception is subject to change upon an upcoming second viewing.
Inception ***
Dogtooth **1/2
Enter the Void **1/2
Get Him to the Greek **1/2
Despicable Me **1/2
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo **1/2
The Way Back **1/2
Date Night **1/2
Iron Man 2 **1/2
The Losers **1/2
The Wolfman **1/2
Edge of Darkness **
All Good Things **
The Loved Ones **
The Girl Who Played With Fire **
Unstoppable **
It's Kind of a Funny Story **
44-Inch Chest **
Dinner for Schmucks **
Operation: Endgame (DVD) **
Cropsey **
Brooklyn's Finest **
Nowhere Boy **
Cop Out **
Case 39 (Delta) *1/2
Two Gates of Sleep (AFI) *1/2
Daybreakers *1/2
Defendor *1/2
Tell-Tale (DVD) *
THE BAD (10) - For better or worse, I just don't know what these movies were thinking. Just horrendous decisions at every turn. Johan Grimonprez's Double Take (an experimental film, mind you) was only 80 minutes, yet it was more grueling to sit through than the 146-minute estrogen marathon known as the Sex and the City sequel. Meanwhile, Tim Burton has officially lost his mind, Michael Winterbottom's movie was as schizophrenic as its two-faced protagonist, and I could tell within the first 30 seconds of Elm St.'s opening credits that the movie was going to be a completely vapid and utterly pointless remake. Hopefully, Platinum Dunes has learned something from the Elm St. nightmare and apply it to future remakes of movies that don't need to be remade. As for Buried, I admire the effort, but I thought Ryan Reynolds was way out of his element and ultimately, he wasn't able to make a torturous experience any less painful.
Tron: Legacy *1/2
Sex and the City 2 *1/2
City Island *1/2
The Killer Inside Me *
Repo Men *
Buried *
Double Take *
Alice in Wonderland *
Somewhere *
A Nightmare on Elm St. 1/2*
THE UNGRADEABLE (1) - I cannot, in good conscience, assign a star rating to A SERBIAN FILM. It is the most fucked up movie I have ever seen, and as such, cannot be graded on a traditional scale. If I was forced to rate it, it would be a lot closer to four stars than no stars. But like I said, a star rating wouldn't do this movie justice, and would serve no purpose, since it can't be compared to any other movie that I've ever seen, let alone any of the films on this year's list.
HAVE SCREENERS FOR (12): Howl (need to finish), Leaves of Grass (need to finish) Get Low, The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest, Restrepo, The Tillman Story, Valhalla Rising, Centurion, Solomon Kane, Frankie & Alice, Hereafter, I Am Love
STILL HAVEN'T SEEN (1): Another Year
OOPS... I MISSED (17): The Secret in Their Eyes, The Last Exorcism, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, Four Lions, Welcome to the Rileys, RED, Megamind, Fair Game, Inside Job, Monsters, Made in Dagenham, Casino Jack, The Tourist, How Do You Know, Love and Other Drugs, Morning Glory, Solitary Man
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
2011 GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Real quick, for the record.
Best Picture - Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Alice in Wonderland
Easy A
How Do You Know
The Kids Are All Right
Love and Other Drugs
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Best Actor - Drama
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress - Drama
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
Jim Carrey, I Love You Phillip Morris
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Robert Downey Jr., Due Date
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Julia Roberts, Eat Pray Love
Emma Stone, Easy A
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer
Matt Damon, True Grit
Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy
Best Screenplay
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Seidler, The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Inception
Best Picture - Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Alice in Wonderland
Easy A
How Do You Know
The Kids Are All Right
Love and Other Drugs
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Best Actor - Drama
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress - Drama
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
Jim Carrey, I Love You Phillip Morris
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Robert Downey Jr., Due Date
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Julia Roberts, Eat Pray Love
Emma Stone, Easy A
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Pierce Brosnan, The Ghost Writer
Matt Damon, True Grit
Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy
Best Screenplay
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Seidler, The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Inception
Sunday, March 7, 2010
The InSneider's FINAL 2010 Oscar Predictions
The time has come. The hour is upon us. The red carpet is ready for Louboutins. I'm hoping to go 24/24, but I'll be happy with 20 correct predictions. Looking forward to a fun show with hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, and praying that The Ten Experiment pays off for the underdog/frontrunner. Without further ado, here are The InSneider's FINAL 2010 Oscar Predictions. You can thank me later.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar - 30%
The Blind Side - 1%
District 9 - 1%
An Education - 1%
The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 5%
A Serious Man - 1%
Up - 1%
Up in the Air - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins, it'll be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever, but it has been steamrolling through the pre-cursors and should reap the rewards of the preferential voting system. Forgive the pun, but it'll come down to the wire.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - The highest grossing movie of all-time also helped usher Hollywood into a new technological age. It's a bona fide worldwide sensation, but its detractors may be too loud to overcome on Oscar night.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Without question, it was the best movie of the year, with characters you actually manage to care about. The most suspenseful film of the last decade and a great, edge-of-your-seat war film to boot.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER A SINGLE MAN. Why do people keep drinking the Coen Brothers' Kool-Aid? Even when it's good, it's still unsatisfying. A Single Man had feeling where A Serious Man had only self-loathing and contempt. Just spare me next time, OK?
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker - 60%
James Cameron, Avatar - 30%
Lee Daniels, Precious - 2%
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air - 1%
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds - 7%
WILL WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She'll be the first female filmmaker to win the award, and it's about damn time.
COULD WIN: JAMES CAMERON - Even I recognize what Cameron accomplished with Avatar. It's a milestone in cinema. But his ex-wife will almost certainly have the last laugh.
SHOULD WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She put me right there, in the suit with Jeremy Renner, and her movie knocked my socks off. She deserves it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: NEVERMIND. I can actually live with this slate of nominees, although TOM FORD (A Single Man) or MARC WEBB (500 Days of Summer) would've been nice...
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart - 80%
George Clooney, Up in the Air - 5%
Colin Firth, A Single Man - 5%
Morgan Freeman, Invictus - 0%
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker - 10%
WILL WIN: JEFF BRIDGES - He was legitimately great in Crazy Heart, but this is more of a Lifetime Achievement Award than anything else. Everyone in Hollywood has worked with him and loves him accordingly though, so expect him to take the stage tonight.
COULD WIN: JEREMY RENNER - Gave an explosive performance in the year's most admired movie. He anchored The Hurt Locker and if there's an upset waiting to happen in this category, it'll be Renner who ascends to the podium.
SHOULD WIN: COLIN FIRTH - Gave the single-best performance of the year in A Single Man. Lost a lot of momentum to Bridges and never recovered in the race. It's a shame.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MORGAN FREEMAN OVER ADAM SANDLER (Funny People) and ROBIN WILLIAMS (World's Greatest Dad). That's right. These guys actually put themselves out there and did something different for a change. Freeman as Mandela sounds nice on paper but it wasn't nearly as compelling as we all imagined it would be.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side - 40%
Helen Mirren, The Last Station - 0%
Carey Mulligan, An Education - 15%
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious - 15%
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia - 30%
WILL WIN: SANDRA BULLOCK - This race is between Bullock and Streep, and I think America's Sweetheart Sandy has this one in the bag. The Blind Side had my bitch-ass in tears throughout, but those glistening drops of saltwater weren't because of Bullock's world-class emoting or anything like that. I thought her performance was better than it had any right to be, and she definitely impressed me, but it paled in comparison to Julia Roberts' fiery turn in that other 'true story,' Erin Brockovich. Still, this is Bullock's Oscar to lose and I understand why.
COULD WIN: MERYL STREEP - The Godmother of the Oscars was very good as Julia Child, making an otherwise mediocre film not only tolerable, but downright enjoyable. That said, to reward her for Julie & Julia over her turn in last year's Doubt would be as unspeakable a crime as the one at the center of the latter film. Surely, I'm making a bad joke, but seriously, to put Julie & Julia in the history books with Sophie's Choice and Kramer vs. Kramer would be as funny as any joke in that half-good movie.
SHOULD WIN: GABOUREY SIDIBE - To be honest, the best performances in this category belonged to the newcomers, Sidibe and Mulligan, and if the Academy had any balls at all, they'd put Sidibe up on that stage. Mulligan was the young, pretty darling of the Oscar season, but Sidibe's performance was the one that stuck with me and challenged my preconceptions the most. Mo'Nique wasn't alone in those nightmarish scenes. We felt for that girl, Precious, and that's due to the skill, grace and complexity of Sidibe's startling performance.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HELEN MIRREN OVER ZOE SALDANA (Avatar), by default. I haven't seen The Last Station so I won't bother arguing for or against Mirren's performance. I've heard she's as excellent as her reputation implies, outshining even Tolstoy/Dr. Parnassus himself, Christopher Plummer. But Saldana was the heart and soul of Avatar, if Avatar in fact had a soul. Her motion-captured performance is the finest I've yet seen birthed in that medium. I could feel the humanity and sensitivity in Neytiri thanks to her. In the $400 million world of Pandora, she's what stood out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus - 0%
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger - 5%
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station - 5%
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones - 0%
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds - 90%
WILL WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - He managed to be alternately terrifying and hilarious as The Jew Hunter in Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. He's as good a lock to win as the Lakers. As a lifelong Celtics fan, I'm ashamed to admit I just wrote that. Or did I?
COULD WIN: WOODY HARRELSON - Showed a sensitive side beneath his tough military man exterior in The Messenger, and had a solid commercial year with Zombieland and 2012, but he's no match for Waltz.
SHOULD WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - Somebody pour this guy a delicious glass of cold milk already!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MATT DAMON OVER ANTHONY MACKIE (The Hurt Locker). Seriously, that is the biggest travesty of this year's nominations. Damon made for one of the least-inspiring sports team captains I've ever seen, and his accent was In 'N Out like the fast-food joint. It was a complete shock to hear his name last month, and to ignore Mackie's contribution to The Hurt Locker is a slap in the face to that film. Rant over.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine - 0%
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air - 2%
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart - 1%
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air 2%
Mo’Nique, Precious - 95%
WILL WIN: MO'NIQUE - She totally let herself go for the role and embraced the nastiness of her character. Straight up, Mo'Nique deserves this Oscar. Four years ago, after seeing Lee Daniels' Shadowboxer, I would've bet One Meeeeeelllion Dollars that I'd never type that sentence in my lifetime, but here we are, and I for one, am happy as hell for this voluptuous woman.
COULD WIN: VERA FARMIGA - She's building up quite a resume but even if Mo'Nique weren't such a dominant force, she'd probably fall victim to a split vote with co-star Anna Kendrick.
SHOULD WIN: MO'NIQUE! Clap your hands everybody! Now everybody clap your hands!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL OVER MELANIE LAURENT (Inglourious Basterds) AND MARION COTILLARD (Nine/Public Enemies). How do you steal not one but TWO! movies and still manage to go unnoticed? Crazy Heart was a one-man show and Gyllenhaal was fairly miscast. I didn't leave the theater thinking about her, and she should've been snubbed along with Julianne Moore (A Single Man) accordingly.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 30%
The Messenger - 5%
A Serious Man - 5%
Up - 20%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Most web pundits have argued that this is the closest race of the night, but if The Hurt Locker is really as beloved as it seems, I don't see how even Quentin Tarantino, who has already won this award for Pulp Fiction, mind you, can derail that freight/gravy train. Boal worked his ass off and literally put his life on the line to write that script. How do you not honor that kind of commitment?
COULD WIN: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS - If anyone is going to steal Boal's Oscar, I want it to be Quentin, whose script managed to reinvent World War II and make a rag-tag group of Jewish soldiers look positively bad-ass.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker couldn't be the Best Picture of the year without an Oscar-worthy screenplay, now could it?
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER 500 DAYS OF SUMMER. The Clint Eastwood myth is not real. The Academy doesn't go for everything the guy does. They're WAY too busy going for everything the Coen Brothers do. I mean, are you shitting me? A Serious Man was a what-the-fuck kinda movie, as in, a movie you walk out of saying to your friend/date/whoever, 'what the fuck was that?' This is a Best Picture nominee with a 10-minute Yiddish prologue. 500 Days of Summer spoke to my generation. The generation that was raised thinking we'd find love like some dork on a sitcom, or in a movie. We were sold a pack of lies, and 500 Days of Summer exposes the sad, ugly truth. There may not be such a thing as a soulmate, and we might have to deal with that at some point. It doesn't mistake practicality for cynicism. If anything, it promotes realism, and what that means to two people looking at their relationship from two very different perspectives.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9 - 5%
An Education - 15%
In the Loop - 5%
Precious - 25%
Up in the Air - 50%
WILL WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Has been losing altitude but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.
COULD WIN: PRECIOUS - Has maintained its momentum throughout the season, to the point where I could see an upset, but something tells me Fletcher is too much of a newcomer here to knock off Reitman.
SHOULD WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Think of it as a consolation prize for being relegated to the bench in the Best Picture discussion.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER A SINGLE MAN. All due respect to District 9, which I generally liked but thought was remarkably overpraised/overrated, but who left District 9 talking about the script. I loved the ending and I'll grant its enthusiasts that, but for me, District 9 didn't reinvent the wheel of anything. Anyone who had been following Hollywood for the past few years couldn't have been THAT surprised by its 'surprise' success. A Single Man used words like daggers. It was a screenplay with soul, that was responsible for the best performance of the year, bar none (Colin Firth's). Again, this race is between Up in the Air and Precious. The former has been losing altitude while the latter has maintained its momentum throughout the season. I could see an upset, but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline - 5%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 15%
The Princess and the Frog - 5%
The Secret of Kells - 5%
Up - 70%
WILL WIN: UP - It's the only animated nominee with Best Picture and Best Screenplay nominations. 'Nuff said.
COULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Its late surge actually came too early, and Clooney/Streep were too busy campaigning for their other movies. An Adapted Screenplay nom would've helped, and its other nomination, for Best Original Score, won't be enough to help pull off the upset.
SHOULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Up was great for 20 minutes and forgettable for the next 70. Fantastic Mr. Fox had more charm in its protagonist's tail than that talking dog had in his. Don't get me started on this one.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Who cares? Pixar wins. The fix is in and the Academy is down with Up.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Burma VJ - 5%
The Cove - 60%
Food Inc. - 20%
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - 10%
Which Way Home - 5%
WILL WIN: THE COVE - A great documentary that actually managed to make the world a better place. Oscar is going to swim with The Cove team this year, and rightfully so.
COULD WIN: FOOD INC. - Food Inc. wasn't half the documentary The Cove was, and sadly, I think that's its main competition.
SHOULD WIN: THE COVE
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ANYTHING BESIDES THE COVE OVER ANVIL: THE STORY OF ANVIL. The Anvil! documentary was awesome and if you haven't seen it, you had to add it to your Netflix queue or rent it from your local video store before they go out of business. It embodied the American dream. Come to think of it, I think the Oscars would've benefited from an Anvil performance.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami (Israel) - 5%
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) - 0%
A Prophet (France) - 30%
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina) - 35%
The White Ribbon (Germany) - 30%
WILL WIN: THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES - A Prophet and The White Ribbon are the two best-known films and thus, the front-runners, but The Secret in Their Eyes has been getting rave revieWs, and could pull off the upset. We'll see when Quentin opens that envelope...
COULD WIN: THE WHITE RIBBON - Michael Haneke's confusing bit of ominous German business might've rubbed some voters the wrong way.
SHOULD WIN: A PROPHET - A truly great prison movie that might be a tad too violent for the prudish Academy.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I didn't seen enough foreign films this year, outside of horror movies on DVD. Let's just be thankful that THOSE don't get nominated for Oscars and move along peacefully, shall we?
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar - 60%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 15%
Nine - 0%
Sherlock Holmes - 25%
The Young Victoria - 0%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - They designed a new world, and that's pretty cool.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Victorian London looked pretty gnarly.
SHOULD WIN: THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS - Gilliam's movie was a nightmare but it looked like a wonderful dream.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: WHO CARES? This category bores the shit out of me.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar - 30%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 15%
The White Ribbon - 20%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Ackroyd's work was masterful and put you right in the sweat-soaked middle of Iraq.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - There were some some gorgeous shots, especially of Jake Sully flying. The fact that some voters won't be able to separate its computerized contributions could hurt it.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Cinema verite at its finest.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HARRY POTTER 6 OVER A SINGLE MAN. The cinematography in A Single Man is both brilliant and breathtaking, with the camera's color filters changing in accordance with George's disposition. I didn't see Harry Potter 6 but did it really look all that much nicer than Harry Potter 4 or 5. I doubt it...
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star - 20%
Coco Before Chanel - 20%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 10%
Nine - 10%
The Young Victoria - 40%
WILL WIN: THE YOUNG VICTORIA - Because the Academy loves Sandy Powell and Emily Blunt is a bigger movie star than Abbie Cornish.
COULD WIN: BRIGHT STAR - Janet Patterson is well liked in the industry, but was the movie?
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I only saw Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither of those were particularly Oscar-worthy in any regard.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ALL OF THOSE OVER INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. I haven't seen the girly movies on this list like Bright Star, The Young Victoria or Coco Before Chanel, but I truly loved the costumes on display in Inglourious Basterds, especially Brad Pitt's white tuxedo and Melanie Laurent's red dress. Va-va-voom, Shoshanna!
BEST EDITING
Avatar - 35%
District 9 - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 45%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The movie is all about creating suspense and tension, and the editing is what ratchets those up to almost unbearable levels.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Did Avatar even have an editor?
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins early in the night, it's a good sign that The Hurt Locker will also win Best Picture.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER STAR TREK. I relished the editing in Star Trek, which seemed to move at light-speed and certainly felt like the fastest movie of the year. I actually loved Dana Glauberman's work in Up in the Air, too. Didn't love District 9 but at least it wasn't 3 hours like some other overrated sci-fi movie on this list. The Precious editing is a love-it-or-hate-it thing but I respect its inclusion in this category, as it married some ugly images that were nonetheless profound within their unfortunate context.
BEST MAKEUP
Il Divo - 20%
Star Trek - 70%
The Young Victoria - 10%
WILL WIN: STAR TREK - With no District 9 to compete with, this one should be a cakewalk.
COULD WIN: IL DIVO - The Academy loves its old-age makeup.
SHOULD WIN: STAR TREK - Those Romulans were far out, dude!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: When I start crying about Make-Up awards, unplug my laptop and delete my life, OK. Star Trek takes this one for giving Eric Bana pointy ears.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar - 15%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 5%
The Hurt Locker - 15%
Sherlock Holmes - 20%
Up - 45%
WILL WIN: UP - Giacchino delivered a memorable, fanciful score that made its silent opening sequence pure cinematic joy.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Hans Zimmer is a beloved veteran, and his twangy Sherlock score brought a unique flavor to that film.
SHOULD WIN: UP - Don't question it, just go with it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Avatar over A SINGLE MAN. Abel Korzeniowski was robbed! The guy composes maybe the lushest musical score of the year and he can't even crack the top 5, nor can Marvin Hamlisch, who came out of retirement to do the witty score for The Informant!. They even denied Giacchino a dual nomination by ignoring his work on Star Trek, which boldly reinvented that theme and kept that film propelling that blockbuster from one set piece to the next. Oh well... the Academy will make it up to him with an Oscar for Up.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett - 75%
Nine - 'Take It All' by Maury Yeston - 5%
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname by Wagner/Thomas - 0%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman - 10%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Down in New Orleans' by Randy Newman - 10%
WILL WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - The song drives the movie, and it's a good song too. How unusual!
COULD WIN: 'Down in New Orleans' from THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - When New Orleans is involved, anything is possible. Remember the Super Bowl?
SHOULD WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - It's the only song I've heard but I dug it so I will it well.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I'm just relieved that 'Stu's Song,' Ed Helms' ridiculous piano-driven ditty from THE HANGOVER, didn't get nominated.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar - 50%
The Hurt Locker - 25%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Up - 10%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - Avatar is a good bet anywhere below-the-line.
COULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker will challenge Avatar everywhere below-the-line, except for Visual Effects, of course.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I don't know enough about sound to have an opinion, but another Hurt Locker win sounds pretty good to me.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. The nominees and I have reached a peaceful understanding.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar - 40%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Whoa! I'm predicting a split in the sound categories! Crazier things have happened...
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Coulda, woulda, shoulda and probably will, but I like to be a contrarian.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. My opinion on sound is moot. Hoping the Academy 'mixes' it up, and gives The Hurt Locker team another Oscar to add to its tally.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. If I'm OK with it, you're OK with it. Although Transformers 2 was a true piece of shit and no one who worked on it has any business being inside the Kodak on Oscar night. This is all about that dude, Greg Russell, who gets nominated every year and has the same number of Oscars as I do. ZERO! Though one could make the case that because I worked as a production assistant on The Departed for one day, that I share in its Best Picture win.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar - 98%
District 9 - 1%
Star Trek - 1%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - The single biggest lock of the night, even more so than in the acting categories. Changed the way movies are made. Consolation prize for losing Best Picture to The Hurt Locker... I hope.
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: AVATAR
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: For shits and giggles, I'll say DISTRICT 9 OVER 2012. But really, I could give a shit. I just thought 2012 had some sweet, End of the World CGI-mayhem, while none of the visuals in District 9 had me doing backflips on the way out of the theater.
SHORT CUTS: I haven't seen any of these 15 films so these predictions are just total shots in the dark.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
French Roast - 20%
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty - 10%
The Lady and the Reaper - 0%
Logorama - 25%
A Matter of Loaf and Death - 45%
WILL WIN: Logorama - The Academy has to be sick of Nick Park's Wallace and Gromit series by now, right?
COULD WIN: A Matter of Loaf and Death - Then again, who doesn't like Wallace and Gromit?
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - 30%
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner - 5%
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - 40%
Music by Prudence - 5%
Rabbit a la Berlin - 20%
WILL WIN: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - Timely and decidedly American.
COULD WIN: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - Emotional subject matter with far-reaching implications.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Door - 25%
Instead of Abracadabra - 5%
Kavi - 25%
Miracle Fish - 40%
The New Tenants - 5%
WILL WIN: Kavi - Because I like the name. Sue me.
COULD WIN: Miracle Fish - Because trusted prognosticator Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is...) is predicting this one.
Post your predictions in the comment section below, and if you beat The InSneider, I'll see to it that you win a prize to be named later! Enjoy Oscar night and GO HURT LOCKER!
BEST PICTURE
Avatar - 30%
The Blind Side - 1%
District 9 - 1%
An Education - 1%
The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 5%
A Serious Man - 1%
Up - 1%
Up in the Air - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins, it'll be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever, but it has been steamrolling through the pre-cursors and should reap the rewards of the preferential voting system. Forgive the pun, but it'll come down to the wire.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - The highest grossing movie of all-time also helped usher Hollywood into a new technological age. It's a bona fide worldwide sensation, but its detractors may be too loud to overcome on Oscar night.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Without question, it was the best movie of the year, with characters you actually manage to care about. The most suspenseful film of the last decade and a great, edge-of-your-seat war film to boot.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER A SINGLE MAN. Why do people keep drinking the Coen Brothers' Kool-Aid? Even when it's good, it's still unsatisfying. A Single Man had feeling where A Serious Man had only self-loathing and contempt. Just spare me next time, OK?
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker - 60%
James Cameron, Avatar - 30%
Lee Daniels, Precious - 2%
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air - 1%
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds - 7%
WILL WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She'll be the first female filmmaker to win the award, and it's about damn time.
COULD WIN: JAMES CAMERON - Even I recognize what Cameron accomplished with Avatar. It's a milestone in cinema. But his ex-wife will almost certainly have the last laugh.
SHOULD WIN: KATHRYN BIGELOW - She put me right there, in the suit with Jeremy Renner, and her movie knocked my socks off. She deserves it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: NEVERMIND. I can actually live with this slate of nominees, although TOM FORD (A Single Man) or MARC WEBB (500 Days of Summer) would've been nice...
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart - 80%
George Clooney, Up in the Air - 5%
Colin Firth, A Single Man - 5%
Morgan Freeman, Invictus - 0%
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker - 10%
WILL WIN: JEFF BRIDGES - He was legitimately great in Crazy Heart, but this is more of a Lifetime Achievement Award than anything else. Everyone in Hollywood has worked with him and loves him accordingly though, so expect him to take the stage tonight.
COULD WIN: JEREMY RENNER - Gave an explosive performance in the year's most admired movie. He anchored The Hurt Locker and if there's an upset waiting to happen in this category, it'll be Renner who ascends to the podium.
SHOULD WIN: COLIN FIRTH - Gave the single-best performance of the year in A Single Man. Lost a lot of momentum to Bridges and never recovered in the race. It's a shame.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MORGAN FREEMAN OVER ADAM SANDLER (Funny People) and ROBIN WILLIAMS (World's Greatest Dad). That's right. These guys actually put themselves out there and did something different for a change. Freeman as Mandela sounds nice on paper but it wasn't nearly as compelling as we all imagined it would be.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side - 40%
Helen Mirren, The Last Station - 0%
Carey Mulligan, An Education - 15%
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious - 15%
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia - 30%
WILL WIN: SANDRA BULLOCK - This race is between Bullock and Streep, and I think America's Sweetheart Sandy has this one in the bag. The Blind Side had my bitch-ass in tears throughout, but those glistening drops of saltwater weren't because of Bullock's world-class emoting or anything like that. I thought her performance was better than it had any right to be, and she definitely impressed me, but it paled in comparison to Julia Roberts' fiery turn in that other 'true story,' Erin Brockovich. Still, this is Bullock's Oscar to lose and I understand why.
COULD WIN: MERYL STREEP - The Godmother of the Oscars was very good as Julia Child, making an otherwise mediocre film not only tolerable, but downright enjoyable. That said, to reward her for Julie & Julia over her turn in last year's Doubt would be as unspeakable a crime as the one at the center of the latter film. Surely, I'm making a bad joke, but seriously, to put Julie & Julia in the history books with Sophie's Choice and Kramer vs. Kramer would be as funny as any joke in that half-good movie.
SHOULD WIN: GABOUREY SIDIBE - To be honest, the best performances in this category belonged to the newcomers, Sidibe and Mulligan, and if the Academy had any balls at all, they'd put Sidibe up on that stage. Mulligan was the young, pretty darling of the Oscar season, but Sidibe's performance was the one that stuck with me and challenged my preconceptions the most. Mo'Nique wasn't alone in those nightmarish scenes. We felt for that girl, Precious, and that's due to the skill, grace and complexity of Sidibe's startling performance.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HELEN MIRREN OVER ZOE SALDANA (Avatar), by default. I haven't seen The Last Station so I won't bother arguing for or against Mirren's performance. I've heard she's as excellent as her reputation implies, outshining even Tolstoy/Dr. Parnassus himself, Christopher Plummer. But Saldana was the heart and soul of Avatar, if Avatar in fact had a soul. Her motion-captured performance is the finest I've yet seen birthed in that medium. I could feel the humanity and sensitivity in Neytiri thanks to her. In the $400 million world of Pandora, she's what stood out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus - 0%
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger - 5%
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station - 5%
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones - 0%
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds - 90%
WILL WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - He managed to be alternately terrifying and hilarious as The Jew Hunter in Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. He's as good a lock to win as the Lakers. As a lifelong Celtics fan, I'm ashamed to admit I just wrote that. Or did I?
COULD WIN: WOODY HARRELSON - Showed a sensitive side beneath his tough military man exterior in The Messenger, and had a solid commercial year with Zombieland and 2012, but he's no match for Waltz.
SHOULD WIN: CHRISTOPH WALTZ - Somebody pour this guy a delicious glass of cold milk already!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MATT DAMON OVER ANTHONY MACKIE (The Hurt Locker). Seriously, that is the biggest travesty of this year's nominations. Damon made for one of the least-inspiring sports team captains I've ever seen, and his accent was In 'N Out like the fast-food joint. It was a complete shock to hear his name last month, and to ignore Mackie's contribution to The Hurt Locker is a slap in the face to that film. Rant over.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine - 0%
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air - 2%
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart - 1%
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air 2%
Mo’Nique, Precious - 95%
WILL WIN: MO'NIQUE - She totally let herself go for the role and embraced the nastiness of her character. Straight up, Mo'Nique deserves this Oscar. Four years ago, after seeing Lee Daniels' Shadowboxer, I would've bet One Meeeeeelllion Dollars that I'd never type that sentence in my lifetime, but here we are, and I for one, am happy as hell for this voluptuous woman.
COULD WIN: VERA FARMIGA - She's building up quite a resume but even if Mo'Nique weren't such a dominant force, she'd probably fall victim to a split vote with co-star Anna Kendrick.
SHOULD WIN: MO'NIQUE! Clap your hands everybody! Now everybody clap your hands!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL OVER MELANIE LAURENT (Inglourious Basterds) AND MARION COTILLARD (Nine/Public Enemies). How do you steal not one but TWO! movies and still manage to go unnoticed? Crazy Heart was a one-man show and Gyllenhaal was fairly miscast. I didn't leave the theater thinking about her, and she should've been snubbed along with Julianne Moore (A Single Man) accordingly.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker - 40%
Inglourious Basterds - 30%
The Messenger - 5%
A Serious Man - 5%
Up - 20%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Most web pundits have argued that this is the closest race of the night, but if The Hurt Locker is really as beloved as it seems, I don't see how even Quentin Tarantino, who has already won this award for Pulp Fiction, mind you, can derail that freight/gravy train. Boal worked his ass off and literally put his life on the line to write that script. How do you not honor that kind of commitment?
COULD WIN: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS - If anyone is going to steal Boal's Oscar, I want it to be Quentin, whose script managed to reinvent World War II and make a rag-tag group of Jewish soldiers look positively bad-ass.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker couldn't be the Best Picture of the year without an Oscar-worthy screenplay, now could it?
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: A SERIOUS MAN OVER 500 DAYS OF SUMMER. The Clint Eastwood myth is not real. The Academy doesn't go for everything the guy does. They're WAY too busy going for everything the Coen Brothers do. I mean, are you shitting me? A Serious Man was a what-the-fuck kinda movie, as in, a movie you walk out of saying to your friend/date/whoever, 'what the fuck was that?' This is a Best Picture nominee with a 10-minute Yiddish prologue. 500 Days of Summer spoke to my generation. The generation that was raised thinking we'd find love like some dork on a sitcom, or in a movie. We were sold a pack of lies, and 500 Days of Summer exposes the sad, ugly truth. There may not be such a thing as a soulmate, and we might have to deal with that at some point. It doesn't mistake practicality for cynicism. If anything, it promotes realism, and what that means to two people looking at their relationship from two very different perspectives.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9 - 5%
An Education - 15%
In the Loop - 5%
Precious - 25%
Up in the Air - 50%
WILL WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Has been losing altitude but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.
COULD WIN: PRECIOUS - Has maintained its momentum throughout the season, to the point where I could see an upset, but something tells me Fletcher is too much of a newcomer here to knock off Reitman.
SHOULD WIN: UP IN THE AIR - Think of it as a consolation prize for being relegated to the bench in the Best Picture discussion.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER A SINGLE MAN. All due respect to District 9, which I generally liked but thought was remarkably overpraised/overrated, but who left District 9 talking about the script. I loved the ending and I'll grant its enthusiasts that, but for me, District 9 didn't reinvent the wheel of anything. Anyone who had been following Hollywood for the past few years couldn't have been THAT surprised by its 'surprise' success. A Single Man used words like daggers. It was a screenplay with soul, that was responsible for the best performance of the year, bar none (Colin Firth's). Again, this race is between Up in the Air and Precious. The former has been losing altitude while the latter has maintained its momentum throughout the season. I could see an upset, but I'll go with the safe landing and pick the writing non-team of Reitman and Turner to win the gold.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline - 5%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 15%
The Princess and the Frog - 5%
The Secret of Kells - 5%
Up - 70%
WILL WIN: UP - It's the only animated nominee with Best Picture and Best Screenplay nominations. 'Nuff said.
COULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Its late surge actually came too early, and Clooney/Streep were too busy campaigning for their other movies. An Adapted Screenplay nom would've helped, and its other nomination, for Best Original Score, won't be enough to help pull off the upset.
SHOULD WIN: FANTASTIC MR. FOX - Up was great for 20 minutes and forgettable for the next 70. Fantastic Mr. Fox had more charm in its protagonist's tail than that talking dog had in his. Don't get me started on this one.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Who cares? Pixar wins. The fix is in and the Academy is down with Up.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Burma VJ - 5%
The Cove - 60%
Food Inc. - 20%
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers - 10%
Which Way Home - 5%
WILL WIN: THE COVE - A great documentary that actually managed to make the world a better place. Oscar is going to swim with The Cove team this year, and rightfully so.
COULD WIN: FOOD INC. - Food Inc. wasn't half the documentary The Cove was, and sadly, I think that's its main competition.
SHOULD WIN: THE COVE
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ANYTHING BESIDES THE COVE OVER ANVIL: THE STORY OF ANVIL. The Anvil! documentary was awesome and if you haven't seen it, you had to add it to your Netflix queue or rent it from your local video store before they go out of business. It embodied the American dream. Come to think of it, I think the Oscars would've benefited from an Anvil performance.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami (Israel) - 5%
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) - 0%
A Prophet (France) - 30%
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina) - 35%
The White Ribbon (Germany) - 30%
WILL WIN: THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES - A Prophet and The White Ribbon are the two best-known films and thus, the front-runners, but The Secret in Their Eyes has been getting rave revieWs, and could pull off the upset. We'll see when Quentin opens that envelope...
COULD WIN: THE WHITE RIBBON - Michael Haneke's confusing bit of ominous German business might've rubbed some voters the wrong way.
SHOULD WIN: A PROPHET - A truly great prison movie that might be a tad too violent for the prudish Academy.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I didn't seen enough foreign films this year, outside of horror movies on DVD. Let's just be thankful that THOSE don't get nominated for Oscars and move along peacefully, shall we?
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar - 60%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 15%
Nine - 0%
Sherlock Holmes - 25%
The Young Victoria - 0%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - They designed a new world, and that's pretty cool.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Victorian London looked pretty gnarly.
SHOULD WIN: THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS - Gilliam's movie was a nightmare but it looked like a wonderful dream.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: WHO CARES? This category bores the shit out of me.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar - 30%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 15%
The White Ribbon - 20%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Ackroyd's work was masterful and put you right in the sweat-soaked middle of Iraq.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - There were some some gorgeous shots, especially of Jake Sully flying. The fact that some voters won't be able to separate its computerized contributions could hurt it.
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Cinema verite at its finest.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: HARRY POTTER 6 OVER A SINGLE MAN. The cinematography in A Single Man is both brilliant and breathtaking, with the camera's color filters changing in accordance with George's disposition. I didn't see Harry Potter 6 but did it really look all that much nicer than Harry Potter 4 or 5. I doubt it...
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star - 20%
Coco Before Chanel - 20%
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 10%
Nine - 10%
The Young Victoria - 40%
WILL WIN: THE YOUNG VICTORIA - Because the Academy loves Sandy Powell and Emily Blunt is a bigger movie star than Abbie Cornish.
COULD WIN: BRIGHT STAR - Janet Patterson is well liked in the industry, but was the movie?
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I only saw Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither of those were particularly Oscar-worthy in any regard.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: ALL OF THOSE OVER INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. I haven't seen the girly movies on this list like Bright Star, The Young Victoria or Coco Before Chanel, but I truly loved the costumes on display in Inglourious Basterds, especially Brad Pitt's white tuxedo and Melanie Laurent's red dress. Va-va-voom, Shoshanna!
BEST EDITING
Avatar - 35%
District 9 - 0%
The Hurt Locker - 45%
Inglourious Basterds - 10%
Precious - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The movie is all about creating suspense and tension, and the editing is what ratchets those up to almost unbearable levels.
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Did Avatar even have an editor?
SHOULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - If it wins early in the night, it's a good sign that The Hurt Locker will also win Best Picture.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: DISTRICT 9 OVER STAR TREK. I relished the editing in Star Trek, which seemed to move at light-speed and certainly felt like the fastest movie of the year. I actually loved Dana Glauberman's work in Up in the Air, too. Didn't love District 9 but at least it wasn't 3 hours like some other overrated sci-fi movie on this list. The Precious editing is a love-it-or-hate-it thing but I respect its inclusion in this category, as it married some ugly images that were nonetheless profound within their unfortunate context.
BEST MAKEUP
Il Divo - 20%
Star Trek - 70%
The Young Victoria - 10%
WILL WIN: STAR TREK - With no District 9 to compete with, this one should be a cakewalk.
COULD WIN: IL DIVO - The Academy loves its old-age makeup.
SHOULD WIN: STAR TREK - Those Romulans were far out, dude!
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: When I start crying about Make-Up awards, unplug my laptop and delete my life, OK. Star Trek takes this one for giving Eric Bana pointy ears.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar - 15%
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 5%
The Hurt Locker - 15%
Sherlock Holmes - 20%
Up - 45%
WILL WIN: UP - Giacchino delivered a memorable, fanciful score that made its silent opening sequence pure cinematic joy.
COULD WIN: SHERLOCK HOLMES - Hans Zimmer is a beloved veteran, and his twangy Sherlock score brought a unique flavor to that film.
SHOULD WIN: UP - Don't question it, just go with it.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: Avatar over A SINGLE MAN. Abel Korzeniowski was robbed! The guy composes maybe the lushest musical score of the year and he can't even crack the top 5, nor can Marvin Hamlisch, who came out of retirement to do the witty score for The Informant!. They even denied Giacchino a dual nomination by ignoring his work on Star Trek, which boldly reinvented that theme and kept that film propelling that blockbuster from one set piece to the next. Oh well... the Academy will make it up to him with an Oscar for Up.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett - 75%
Nine - 'Take It All' by Maury Yeston - 5%
Paris 36 - Loin de Paname by Wagner/Thomas - 0%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman - 10%
The Princess and the Frog - 'Down in New Orleans' by Randy Newman - 10%
WILL WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - The song drives the movie, and it's a good song too. How unusual!
COULD WIN: 'Down in New Orleans' from THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - When New Orleans is involved, anything is possible. Remember the Super Bowl?
SHOULD WIN: 'The Weary Kind' from CRAZY HEART - It's the only song I've heard but I dug it so I will it well.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. I'm just relieved that 'Stu's Song,' Ed Helms' ridiculous piano-driven ditty from THE HANGOVER, didn't get nominated.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar - 50%
The Hurt Locker - 25%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Up - 10%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - Avatar is a good bet anywhere below-the-line.
COULD WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - The Hurt Locker will challenge Avatar everywhere below-the-line, except for Visual Effects, of course.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. I don't know enough about sound to have an opinion, but another Hurt Locker win sounds pretty good to me.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. The nominees and I have reached a peaceful understanding.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar - 40%
The Hurt Locker - 35%
Inglourious Basterds - 5%
Star Trek - 10%
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 10%
WILL WIN: THE HURT LOCKER - Whoa! I'm predicting a split in the sound categories! Crazier things have happened...
COULD WIN: AVATAR - Coulda, woulda, shoulda and probably will, but I like to be a contrarian.
SHOULD WIN: N/A. My opinion on sound is moot. Hoping the Academy 'mixes' it up, and gives The Hurt Locker team another Oscar to add to its tally.
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: N/A. If I'm OK with it, you're OK with it. Although Transformers 2 was a true piece of shit and no one who worked on it has any business being inside the Kodak on Oscar night. This is all about that dude, Greg Russell, who gets nominated every year and has the same number of Oscars as I do. ZERO! Though one could make the case that because I worked as a production assistant on The Departed for one day, that I share in its Best Picture win.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar - 98%
District 9 - 1%
Star Trek - 1%
WILL WIN: AVATAR - The single biggest lock of the night, even more so than in the acting categories. Changed the way movies are made. Consolation prize for losing Best Picture to The Hurt Locker... I hope.
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: AVATAR
HOW DARE THEY NOMINATE: For shits and giggles, I'll say DISTRICT 9 OVER 2012. But really, I could give a shit. I just thought 2012 had some sweet, End of the World CGI-mayhem, while none of the visuals in District 9 had me doing backflips on the way out of the theater.
SHORT CUTS: I haven't seen any of these 15 films so these predictions are just total shots in the dark.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
French Roast - 20%
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty - 10%
The Lady and the Reaper - 0%
Logorama - 25%
A Matter of Loaf and Death - 45%
WILL WIN: Logorama - The Academy has to be sick of Nick Park's Wallace and Gromit series by now, right?
COULD WIN: A Matter of Loaf and Death - Then again, who doesn't like Wallace and Gromit?
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - 30%
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner - 5%
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - 40%
Music by Prudence - 5%
Rabbit a la Berlin - 20%
WILL WIN: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant - Timely and decidedly American.
COULD WIN: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province - Emotional subject matter with far-reaching implications.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Door - 25%
Instead of Abracadabra - 5%
Kavi - 25%
Miracle Fish - 40%
The New Tenants - 5%
WILL WIN: Kavi - Because I like the name. Sue me.
COULD WIN: Miracle Fish - Because trusted prognosticator Scott Feinberg (And the Winner Is...) is predicting this one.
Post your predictions in the comment section below, and if you beat The InSneider, I'll see to it that you win a prize to be named later! Enjoy Oscar night and GO HURT LOCKER!
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