Here's my scorecard, with analysis for every category. Capitalized movies were nominated and movies in parentheses are those that I predicted would be nominated and were not. And let me hear how you did in the comments section below!
NOTE: * indicates my early projection to win the Academy Award
BEST PICTURE (9/10)
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A SERIOUS MAN (Star Trek)
Up
Up in the Air
I was humming along with 7 in a row, and I finished strong with the last 2, but it was #8 that proved to be an insurmountable obstacle. Hours before I made my FINAL predictions, I had A Serious Man locked in as a Best Picture nominee. Then I spoke with a girl I trust and she convinced me that The Blind Side would be nominated. Considering its impressive box office and late-season heat, it wasn't a bad gamble. Because Star Trek was one of the 2-3 standouts of the first half of 2009 and most people liked it, I thought it had a chance at beating out the Coens' love-it or hate-it A Serious Man, which had encountered its own backlash, facing accusations of anti-Semitism. But the Coens prevailed over Capt. Spock and the gang. I suppose it was wishful thinking on my part. The Academy going for 3 sci-fi movies would be unusual, even for them. This race is still Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker and it's looking like the little guy could actually pull off the "upset."
BEST DIRECTOR (5/5)
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
What more is there to say, really? This is between Bigelow and her ex-husband, Mr. James "self-proclaimed 'King of the World'" Cameron.
BEST ACTOR (5/5)
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart*
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
No surprises here. This is Bridges' Oscar to lose at this point.
BEST ACTRESS (5/5)
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side*
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Again, nothing to bat an eyelash over. It's Bullock vs. Streep all over again, although I do think that Sidibe and Mulligan will get a higher percentage of the votes than they did at the Golden Globes. This is the one acting category to keep your eye on. Things could get interesting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (4/5)
MATT DAMON, INVICTUS (Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker)
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*
Simply an instance of wishful thinking on my part. I wrote from my heart, rather than my head. Mackie turned in the 2nd best supporting performance of the year but somehow got snubbed in favor of a completely forgettable Matt Damon performance that barely registered in a dull, uneven movie. This is a black eye for the Academy. Ridiculous! I understand why Freeman had to be nominated for playing Mandela, but Damon? C'mon, AMPAS! Over Molina and Sarsgaard too? Unacceptable! Waltz will waltz away with this one, no contest.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (3/5)
PENELOPE CRUZ, NINE (Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds)
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL, CRAZY HEART (Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds)
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious*
A couple of surprises here. Predicting both Inglourious actresses was obviously a long-shot on my part, but I wasn't expecting both of them to be snubbed, let alone by someone from Nine not named Marion Cotillard, who was easily the best thing about that movie. Still, I suppose Cruz was the next best and she's obviously beloved by the Academy, since this is her 3rd nomination in 4 years. Fox Searchlight did such a great job with the Crazy Heart campaign that up until the last minute, I thought it had a legit chance at a Best Picture nom. Gyllenhaal has been snubbed before, for Secretary and Sherrybaby, so maybe this was the Academy's way of making it up to her. I do think that she was better than Samantha Morton and Julianne Moore, so I'm fine with her recognition despite my disappointment that both Basterdesses were left out in the cold. Regardless, Mo'Nique takes this award without much of a fight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (4/5)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
THE MESSENGER (500 Days of Summer)
A Serious Man
Up
Along with Mackie, the exclusion of Summer writers Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber was the most heartbreaking for me. I loved their movie and I was very surprised to see them snubbed in a category that Fox Searclight has had success with young writers in before. See Little Miss Sunshine's Michael Arndt and Juno's Diablo Cody. I quite liked The Messenger and would've liked to have seen it nominated over A Serious Man or Up, but it knocked my second-favorite screenplay of the year out of contention, leaving that excellent film with no nominations, same as me. A shame, but congrats to Oren Moverman and Alessandro Camon. Shocked to see the Academy honor two war-themed movies (3 if you count Basterds) here but then again, they are very different depictions. Expect The Hurt Locker's Mark Boal to walk away with the gold statue.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5)
DISTRICT 9 (Crazy Heart)
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air*
Crazy Heart had the WGA and the Scripter on its side but in the end the movie with the Best Picture nomination won out. So happy to see In the Loop here. It looks like the Brit contingent stood up for themselves, and it's a well-deserved nomination. Sad for A Single Man's Tom Ford, who wrote a touching adapted screenplay with David Searce. There's been a lot of bad press swirling around Up in the Air's Jason Reitman but this award is his and Sheldon Turner's to lose.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (4/5)
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
THE SECRET OF KELLS (Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs)
Up*
Find me someone who went 5/5 in this category. I dare you. This was the biggest surprise of the morning. I don't even know what The Secret of Kells is! I thought it was a filler submission so there could be 5 nominees this year. Congrats to Tomm Moore I suppose! Pixar's Up still has this in the bag, although Wes Anderson's Fantastic Mr. Fox will give it a run for its money.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (2/5)
Burma VJ
The Cove*
FOOD, INC. (The Beaches of Agnes)
THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS (Every Little Step)
WHICH WAY HOME (Mugabe and the White African)
See what happens when you don't know the nominees? You get burned! I had a feeling that the Daniel Ellsberg documentary was going to get in. Should've gone with that over Mugabe and the White African. Really thought Every Little Step was going to make the cut here. Surprised to see Food, Inc. in the field. I did see that one and I had some problems with it. The Cove should swim away with Oscar gold on the big night.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (4/5)
Ajami - Israel
THE MILK OF SORROW - PERU (Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands)
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany*
The three locks delivered and Israel found the support it needed for Ajami. Winter in Wartime just got picked up by SPC which made me think it'd be a bit more accessible, which is exactly what I've heard The Milk of Sorrow wasn't. In the end, the Netherlands' loss was Peru's gain. It's always a tough category to predict, and Haneke isn't for everyone, but barring an upset, his White Ribbon has the Oscar wrapped up.
BEST ART DIRECTION (2/5)
Avatar*
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
NINE (Inglourious Basterds)
Sherlock Holmes
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (Star Trek)
Not one of my best categories. Dr. Parnassus was a trendy pick here early in the season and I don't know why I forgot about it. Oh wait, yes I do. It was a horrible movie. But I'm happy to give credit where credit is due and yes, Terry Gillim's movie looked great and brought the funky weirdness. Surprised to see The Young Victoria here and not Basterds but what do I know. The blockbuster guesses did not pay off. Tsk tsk.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)
Avatar
HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE (Nine)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
I've never seen a Harry Potter movie and I don't care to start now. Hadn't really heard a single mention about the cinematography in the latest HP sequel. This one came completely out of left-field, but at least it bumped out Nine, which for all its bells and whistler, still looked visually drab and plastic. No clue who takes this award, other than I feel confident saying it won't be Harry Potter 6. A lot of different styles on display here. Good variety. A fun category that pits Avatar directly against The Hurt Locker.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5)
Bright Star*
COCO BEFORE CHANEL (Inglourious Basterds)
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Sherlock Holmes)
Nine
The Young Victoria
Not bad, although I'm puzzled as to why Inglourious Basterds isn't here. Then again, I've only seen Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither one was a good movie, so perhaps that's where my bias stems from. Still, all of these nominees seem awfully alike with the exception of the wacky Dr. Parnassus. A total toss-up for me.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
DISTRICT 9 (Star Trek)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
PRECIOUS (Up in the Air)
Kinda shocked to see Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman missing here. Thought she was a can't miss lock. Not surprised District 9 got the nod over Star Trek. Thought some of those cuts in Precious were a little curious to say the least, but I guess the Academy went for its daring choices and artistic flourishes.
BEST MAKEUP (1/3)
IL DIVO (District 9)
Star Trek*
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus)
The Young Victoria's inclusion here came as a surprise, more so than Il Divo, which I still have to see. Apparently Toni Servillo's aging is remarkable. I'll pass and revisit this category at a later date...
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (2/5)
Avatar
FANTASTIC MR. FOX (The Informant!)
THE HURT LOCKER (A Single Man)
SHERLOCK HOLMES (Star Trek)
Up*
So Giacchino didn't pull off the rare double nomination but he's still the front-runner for his wonderful work on Up. The Hurt Locker is the big surprise in this category. I've been a fan of Marco Beltrami's since the Scream days, right up to 3:10 to Yuma. He's paid his dues and it was nice to see him rewarded with a second nomination. He really added to the tension of Bigelow's film. This category could provide a minor surprise on Oscar night. Keep an ear out!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG (2/5)
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett*
NINE - TAKE IT ALL BY MAURY YESTON (Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston)
PARIS 36 - LOIN DE PANAME BY WAGNER/THOMAS (Avatar - 'I See You' by L. Lewis/J. Horner)
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - 'DOWN IN NEW ORLEANS' BY RANDY NEWMAN (An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley)
I feign ignorance on Disney's The Princess and the Frog. Should've expected two nominations from that one. And I definitely haven't seen Paris 36, let alone listened to any original music from the movie. Picked the wrong song from Nine too. Tough category. Oh well. No U2 or Paul McCartney could leave the door open for a "crazy" win by Ryan Bingham and previous Oscar nominee T Bone Burnett.
BEST SOUND EDITING (3/5)
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
UP (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)
I thought Up would get one of these nods, which is why I had it as the alternate pick in both categories. No idea why Basterds got these nods over District 9 and to be honest, I don't really care. The only people who do are sound editors and mixers. Avatar takes both of these, right?
BEST SOUND MIXING (4/5)
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
See above.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3/3)
Avatar*
District 9
Star Trek
Avatar takes this in a cakewalk. It has a date with destiny in this category, I'm afraid.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The InSneider's FINAL 2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
The Time is upon us. Nomination Tuesday. There may be a few laughs. There will probably be a few tears. There will definitely be a few surprises. But unfortunately, there will not be any blood, unless Twilight: New Moon is nominated for Best Picture. Then I might be compelled to kill indiscriminately.
For "reel" though folks, tomorrow's Best Picture nominees are anyone's guess. Guys like Kris Tapley, Steve Pond and Dave Karger know better than I, but the bottom line is that none of us have a vote, and with 10 Best Picture nominees this year and a new preferential voting system, the once-predictable Academy is capable of anything. So let's give it our best shot, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: The Hangover
I'd say there are 7 locks in this race and they're not who you might think. The vulnerable three are The Blind Side, Star Trek and oddly enough, Up, in that order from least to most. I really feel that District 9 is a lock and that Blomkamp is a Lee Daniels-backlash away from a Best Director nomination. It's Complicated, The Hangover, The Messenger, Invictus, Nine, The White Ribbon and (500) Days of Summer could all slide in here and shake up the landscape for the Big Prize. I think it really boils down to the consensus... what movies did everyone agree to like. A Serious Man is a polarizing film. Some love it, others hate it. That won't fly with Oscar... I think. Up wasn't nearly as beloved as Wall-E, which famously failed to land a nomination, bu the expansion to 10 nominees seems pre-designed to help Pixar escape the nomination ghetto.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
This category is pretty much sewn up. I don't think Blomkamp will be nominated for his first feature, and even though Daniels hasn't won over many people on the publicity circuit, he deserves credit for pulling off a tricky adaptation of difficult material. If there's a dark horse, it's Austrian helmer Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon. An Education helmer Lone Scherfig is an ultra-long shot.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: Matt Damon, The Informant!
This one is all but set in stone. If there's a weak link, it's Morgan Freeman who seems content to coast on his reputation at this point in his career, but the lure of him as Mandela will be too strong for voters to resist. Some feel The Road's Viggo Mortensen or The Messenger's Ben Foster could pull off a surprise nomination but if anyone sneaks into the field, it'll be Damon, who has hasn't been nominated since Good Will Hunting despite 13 years of steadily impressive work.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Again, I think you can take this category to the bank. It's possible that a lot of voters didn't see The Last Station but I think Mirren has enough support in the ranks. It'll be close but she should hang on against young upstarts Blunt and Abbie Cornish.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Alfred Molina, An Education
UPSET ALERT! The Academy, as a group, is not dumb, nor is it blind. To ignore Anthony Mackie's stellar work in The Hurt Locker would be a crime on par with the nomination of Johnny Depp for Best Actor in Pirates of the Caribbean. Jeremy Renner would never have given the performance that he did, if Mackie didn't push him in every scene. Kathryn Bigelow would not be winning all these awards if Mackie didn't bring his A-game to the set every day. I think the Academy ends up recognizing his invaluable contributions. Molina's heat has been fading fast, especially with his co-star Peter Sarsgaard also competing in the category. If anyone else slips in under the radar, it could be Christian McKay whose portrayal of Orson Welles in Me & Orson Welles won raves across the board. Alec Baldwin has also been popping up on some lists but I think they'll only capacity in which you'll see him at the Oscars will be as co-host with Steve Martin. It would be embarrassing if Matt Damon got nominated here for Invictus in the same year he gave a better performance in the superior film The Informant!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
UPSET ALERT! This is me going way out on a limb. Kruger got the SAG nomination but Laurent was clearly the heart and soul of Inglourious Basterds. The two foreign actresses could cancel each other out, or support for Basterds could overwhelm the mighty trio of Moore, Crazy Heart's Maggie Gyllenhaal and The Messenger's Samantha Morton. Meanwhile, Nine and its lovely ladies, including Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz, seems to have fallen off dramatically. As much as I loved A Single Man, I just don't see what was so special about Moore's performance, but if she is nominated, it'll likely be over one of the Basterdesses and Oscar darling Samantha Morton.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
ALT: Avatar
UPSET ALERT! Why is it such a given that Pixar's Up will be nominated here? Outside of its first 10 minutes, it's a completely forgettable film. Will that heartbreaking first sequence be enough to overpower the box office behemoth known as Avatar. I'm also not sure why The Coen Brothers are considered locks, but if the film finds enough support for a Best Picture nomination, then that passion will carry over to this category. If not, we could see The Messenger, The White Ribbon or possibly The Hangover. History says that since James Cameron wasn't nominated for Titanic, he's liable to miss out again this year. Not surprising since Avatar's strong suit wasn't its screenplay. On the other hand, you don't make $2 billion worldwide with a shitty script...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
UPSET ALERT! Tough category. Crazy Heart and In the Loop are not sure bets at all, and A Single Man, District 9, Julie & Julia or Fantastic Mr. Fox could very well take one of those two spots. But something tells me the Brits will assert their influence in this category and give In the Loop the boost it needs, and none of the three sci-fi Best Picture nominees will score writing nods, but they'll all score visual effects nods. I don't think the Star Trek duo of Kurtzman and Orci should get there hopes up here despite scoring WGA nods, although that recognition is a good sign for Crazy Heart writer/director Scott Cooper.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
The Academy loves Miyazaki but something tells me that tomorrow's forecast will be Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which earned surprising critical acclaim and made a mint at the box office. Mary and Max and A Town Called Panic loom as long-shot contenders.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
UPSET ALERT! I've got a feeling that Food Inc. will find itself on the outside looking in. The Daniel Ellsburg documentary could find its way into this field too. The Cove is the only real lock here but I admittedly haven't seen enough of the movies shortlisted for this award. Scott Feinberg is predicting four different movies in addition to The Cove, so clearly I know nothing.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami - Israel
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany
Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands
ALT: The Milk of Sorrow - Peru
Call it a hunch. This is as much about the movies as it is the countries submitting them, which makes me think Israel's Ajami will get a nomination over Peru's The Milk of Sorrow, which itself could invade The Netherlands' spot. But Winter in Wartime just got theatrical distribution which makes me think it will score a nod after all, plus I've read that Peru's entry is pretty abstract. A Prophet and The White Ribbon will surely make the cut, as should Argentina's entry The Secret in Their Eyes.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
ALT: A Serious Man
Could The Lovely Bones finally find some love here? It's possible, but something tells me Avatar and Basterds are locked, and Sherlock Holmes is a strong #3. I expect Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek to show up before Jess Gonchor's solid work in A Serious Man, while District 9 remains a serious possibility here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon
ALT: The Road
A Serious Man's Roger Deakins is always a threat here, and for my money, A Single Man featured the best cinematography of the year. But The Road's Javier Aguirresarobe could be the one who benefits if Nine registers as a zero with the Academy. It's definitely the one wearing the bulls-eye on its back in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
ALT: Coco Before Chanel
Shame that A Single Man isn't getting more attention for its classy threads, but so it goes for a film that has been criminally ignored this season. The most memorable costumes of the year, in my opinion, were Melanie Laurent's red dress and Brad Pitt's white tux in Inglourious Basterds. The stars of Nine basked in the glow of its high fashion, while the other three nominees all satisfy the Victorian quotient.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
Something tells me that A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer will draw the short straws in this category, especially if all three of the sci-fi films score Best Picture nominations. I thought Alan Edward Bell did a great job handling Summer's unique structure and successfully charting the peaks and valleys of that doomed relationship. If the Coens are, for some reason, ignored in the Original Screenplay category, a consolation nomination could manifest itself here under their editing alias Roderick Jaynes. I give Star Trek the nod over District 9 because it felt like the fastest film of the year to me, although both could get in if Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke pays the price for his long, talky scenes. Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman is a well-respected pro so she's definitely in.
BEST MAKEUP
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek
ALT: Il Divo
Oscar loves its actors who age but the work in District 9 and Star Trek is too showy to be ignored, and I'd "imagine" Dr. Parnassus will steal that third spot thanks to Terry Gilliam's wacky vision.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
UPSET ALERT! Another tricky category. I bet Michael Giacchino scores a well-deserved double nomination here for his work on Star Trek and Up, although the latter is the safer bet. Hans Zimmer was ineligible last year for The Dark Knight, so he could get some sympathy love for his work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat did some delightful work in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Hamlisch's marvelous score for The Informant! could be a critics-only thing but I think the veteran composer will hear his name, along with Abel Korzeniowski, whose work in A Single Man was the single best of the year. James Horner's Avatar score was actively forgettable but I doubt he'll be denied, especially since the Academy's orchestra will be playing his music all evening.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - 'I See You' by Leona Lewis and James Horner
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley
Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
ALT: 'Down in New Orleans' from The Princess and the Frog
I really have no idea how this one goes, as the Music Branch is a fuckin' fickle bunch. If I was concerned about TV ratings, I would nominate U2 for singing "Happy Birthday" at this point. Crazy Heart's Bingham is guaranteed a nomination, as is Randy Newman, although I haven't heard any songs from that soundtrack so I'm not exactly a qualified expert. The Leona Lewis track at the end of Avatar was tacky and didn't really fit with the rest of the movie but Avatar has to get double-digit nominations somehow, right?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Who knows? Who cares? This is for the stat-padders.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Ditto. Except for the ongoing story about Transformers mixer Greg Russell, who has been nominated something like 11 times without winning once.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: 2012
2012 featured non-stop mayhem but something tells me that black hole in Star Trek will be the difference. Plus it was, you know, a good movie. The flashy effects of Transformers 2 could also sneak in here over District 9.
APPRX. FINAL TALLY:
Avatar - 10
Inglourious Basterds - 10
The Hurt Locker - 9
Star Trek - 7
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 5
Precious - 5
An Education - 4
Up - 4
Crazy Heart - 3
Nine - 3
The Blind Side - 2
The Last Station - 2
The Princess and the Frog - 2
Sherlock Holmes - 2
A Single Man - 2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 2
The White Ribbon - 2
(500) Days of Summer - 1
Ajami - 1
The Beaches of Agnes - 1
Bright Star - 1
Burma VJ - 1
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - 1
Coraline - 1
The Cove - 1
Every Little Step - 1
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 1
The Informant! - 1
In the Loop - 1
Invictus - 1
Julie & Julia - 1
The Lovely Bones - 1
The Messenger - 1
Mugabe and the White Elephant - 1
A Prophet - 1
The Secret of Their Eyes - 1
A Serious Man - 1
Winter in Wartime - 1
The Young Victoria - 1
For "reel" though folks, tomorrow's Best Picture nominees are anyone's guess. Guys like Kris Tapley, Steve Pond and Dave Karger know better than I, but the bottom line is that none of us have a vote, and with 10 Best Picture nominees this year and a new preferential voting system, the once-predictable Academy is capable of anything. So let's give it our best shot, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: The Hangover
I'd say there are 7 locks in this race and they're not who you might think. The vulnerable three are The Blind Side, Star Trek and oddly enough, Up, in that order from least to most. I really feel that District 9 is a lock and that Blomkamp is a Lee Daniels-backlash away from a Best Director nomination. It's Complicated, The Hangover, The Messenger, Invictus, Nine, The White Ribbon and (500) Days of Summer could all slide in here and shake up the landscape for the Big Prize. I think it really boils down to the consensus... what movies did everyone agree to like. A Serious Man is a polarizing film. Some love it, others hate it. That won't fly with Oscar... I think. Up wasn't nearly as beloved as Wall-E, which famously failed to land a nomination, bu the expansion to 10 nominees seems pre-designed to help Pixar escape the nomination ghetto.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
This category is pretty much sewn up. I don't think Blomkamp will be nominated for his first feature, and even though Daniels hasn't won over many people on the publicity circuit, he deserves credit for pulling off a tricky adaptation of difficult material. If there's a dark horse, it's Austrian helmer Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon. An Education helmer Lone Scherfig is an ultra-long shot.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: Matt Damon, The Informant!
This one is all but set in stone. If there's a weak link, it's Morgan Freeman who seems content to coast on his reputation at this point in his career, but the lure of him as Mandela will be too strong for voters to resist. Some feel The Road's Viggo Mortensen or The Messenger's Ben Foster could pull off a surprise nomination but if anyone sneaks into the field, it'll be Damon, who has hasn't been nominated since Good Will Hunting despite 13 years of steadily impressive work.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Again, I think you can take this category to the bank. It's possible that a lot of voters didn't see The Last Station but I think Mirren has enough support in the ranks. It'll be close but she should hang on against young upstarts Blunt and Abbie Cornish.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Alfred Molina, An Education
UPSET ALERT! The Academy, as a group, is not dumb, nor is it blind. To ignore Anthony Mackie's stellar work in The Hurt Locker would be a crime on par with the nomination of Johnny Depp for Best Actor in Pirates of the Caribbean. Jeremy Renner would never have given the performance that he did, if Mackie didn't push him in every scene. Kathryn Bigelow would not be winning all these awards if Mackie didn't bring his A-game to the set every day. I think the Academy ends up recognizing his invaluable contributions. Molina's heat has been fading fast, especially with his co-star Peter Sarsgaard also competing in the category. If anyone else slips in under the radar, it could be Christian McKay whose portrayal of Orson Welles in Me & Orson Welles won raves across the board. Alec Baldwin has also been popping up on some lists but I think they'll only capacity in which you'll see him at the Oscars will be as co-host with Steve Martin. It would be embarrassing if Matt Damon got nominated here for Invictus in the same year he gave a better performance in the superior film The Informant!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
UPSET ALERT! This is me going way out on a limb. Kruger got the SAG nomination but Laurent was clearly the heart and soul of Inglourious Basterds. The two foreign actresses could cancel each other out, or support for Basterds could overwhelm the mighty trio of Moore, Crazy Heart's Maggie Gyllenhaal and The Messenger's Samantha Morton. Meanwhile, Nine and its lovely ladies, including Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz, seems to have fallen off dramatically. As much as I loved A Single Man, I just don't see what was so special about Moore's performance, but if she is nominated, it'll likely be over one of the Basterdesses and Oscar darling Samantha Morton.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
ALT: Avatar
UPSET ALERT! Why is it such a given that Pixar's Up will be nominated here? Outside of its first 10 minutes, it's a completely forgettable film. Will that heartbreaking first sequence be enough to overpower the box office behemoth known as Avatar. I'm also not sure why The Coen Brothers are considered locks, but if the film finds enough support for a Best Picture nomination, then that passion will carry over to this category. If not, we could see The Messenger, The White Ribbon or possibly The Hangover. History says that since James Cameron wasn't nominated for Titanic, he's liable to miss out again this year. Not surprising since Avatar's strong suit wasn't its screenplay. On the other hand, you don't make $2 billion worldwide with a shitty script...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
UPSET ALERT! Tough category. Crazy Heart and In the Loop are not sure bets at all, and A Single Man, District 9, Julie & Julia or Fantastic Mr. Fox could very well take one of those two spots. But something tells me the Brits will assert their influence in this category and give In the Loop the boost it needs, and none of the three sci-fi Best Picture nominees will score writing nods, but they'll all score visual effects nods. I don't think the Star Trek duo of Kurtzman and Orci should get there hopes up here despite scoring WGA nods, although that recognition is a good sign for Crazy Heart writer/director Scott Cooper.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
The Academy loves Miyazaki but something tells me that tomorrow's forecast will be Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which earned surprising critical acclaim and made a mint at the box office. Mary and Max and A Town Called Panic loom as long-shot contenders.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
UPSET ALERT! I've got a feeling that Food Inc. will find itself on the outside looking in. The Daniel Ellsburg documentary could find its way into this field too. The Cove is the only real lock here but I admittedly haven't seen enough of the movies shortlisted for this award. Scott Feinberg is predicting four different movies in addition to The Cove, so clearly I know nothing.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami - Israel
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany
Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands
ALT: The Milk of Sorrow - Peru
Call it a hunch. This is as much about the movies as it is the countries submitting them, which makes me think Israel's Ajami will get a nomination over Peru's The Milk of Sorrow, which itself could invade The Netherlands' spot. But Winter in Wartime just got theatrical distribution which makes me think it will score a nod after all, plus I've read that Peru's entry is pretty abstract. A Prophet and The White Ribbon will surely make the cut, as should Argentina's entry The Secret in Their Eyes.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
ALT: A Serious Man
Could The Lovely Bones finally find some love here? It's possible, but something tells me Avatar and Basterds are locked, and Sherlock Holmes is a strong #3. I expect Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek to show up before Jess Gonchor's solid work in A Serious Man, while District 9 remains a serious possibility here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon
ALT: The Road
A Serious Man's Roger Deakins is always a threat here, and for my money, A Single Man featured the best cinematography of the year. But The Road's Javier Aguirresarobe could be the one who benefits if Nine registers as a zero with the Academy. It's definitely the one wearing the bulls-eye on its back in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
ALT: Coco Before Chanel
Shame that A Single Man isn't getting more attention for its classy threads, but so it goes for a film that has been criminally ignored this season. The most memorable costumes of the year, in my opinion, were Melanie Laurent's red dress and Brad Pitt's white tux in Inglourious Basterds. The stars of Nine basked in the glow of its high fashion, while the other three nominees all satisfy the Victorian quotient.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
Something tells me that A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer will draw the short straws in this category, especially if all three of the sci-fi films score Best Picture nominations. I thought Alan Edward Bell did a great job handling Summer's unique structure and successfully charting the peaks and valleys of that doomed relationship. If the Coens are, for some reason, ignored in the Original Screenplay category, a consolation nomination could manifest itself here under their editing alias Roderick Jaynes. I give Star Trek the nod over District 9 because it felt like the fastest film of the year to me, although both could get in if Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke pays the price for his long, talky scenes. Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman is a well-respected pro so she's definitely in.
BEST MAKEUP
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek
ALT: Il Divo
Oscar loves its actors who age but the work in District 9 and Star Trek is too showy to be ignored, and I'd "imagine" Dr. Parnassus will steal that third spot thanks to Terry Gilliam's wacky vision.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
UPSET ALERT! Another tricky category. I bet Michael Giacchino scores a well-deserved double nomination here for his work on Star Trek and Up, although the latter is the safer bet. Hans Zimmer was ineligible last year for The Dark Knight, so he could get some sympathy love for his work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat did some delightful work in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Hamlisch's marvelous score for The Informant! could be a critics-only thing but I think the veteran composer will hear his name, along with Abel Korzeniowski, whose work in A Single Man was the single best of the year. James Horner's Avatar score was actively forgettable but I doubt he'll be denied, especially since the Academy's orchestra will be playing his music all evening.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - 'I See You' by Leona Lewis and James Horner
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley
Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
ALT: 'Down in New Orleans' from The Princess and the Frog
I really have no idea how this one goes, as the Music Branch is a fuckin' fickle bunch. If I was concerned about TV ratings, I would nominate U2 for singing "Happy Birthday" at this point. Crazy Heart's Bingham is guaranteed a nomination, as is Randy Newman, although I haven't heard any songs from that soundtrack so I'm not exactly a qualified expert. The Leona Lewis track at the end of Avatar was tacky and didn't really fit with the rest of the movie but Avatar has to get double-digit nominations somehow, right?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Who knows? Who cares? This is for the stat-padders.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Ditto. Except for the ongoing story about Transformers mixer Greg Russell, who has been nominated something like 11 times without winning once.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: 2012
2012 featured non-stop mayhem but something tells me that black hole in Star Trek will be the difference. Plus it was, you know, a good movie. The flashy effects of Transformers 2 could also sneak in here over District 9.
APPRX. FINAL TALLY:
Avatar - 10
Inglourious Basterds - 10
The Hurt Locker - 9
Star Trek - 7
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 5
Precious - 5
An Education - 4
Up - 4
Crazy Heart - 3
Nine - 3
The Blind Side - 2
The Last Station - 2
The Princess and the Frog - 2
Sherlock Holmes - 2
A Single Man - 2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 2
The White Ribbon - 2
(500) Days of Summer - 1
Ajami - 1
The Beaches of Agnes - 1
Bright Star - 1
Burma VJ - 1
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - 1
Coraline - 1
The Cove - 1
Every Little Step - 1
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 1
The Informant! - 1
In the Loop - 1
Invictus - 1
Julie & Julia - 1
The Lovely Bones - 1
The Messenger - 1
Mugabe and the White Elephant - 1
A Prophet - 1
The Secret of Their Eyes - 1
A Serious Man - 1
Winter in Wartime - 1
The Young Victoria - 1
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
2009 MOVIE LIST... 132 and Counting
So we meet again, old friend...
THE STANDOUTS (16) - Just great movies that you'd have to be crazy to neither appreciate nor enjoy.
The Hurt Locker ***1/2
Inglourious Basterds ***1/2
500 Days of Summer ***1/2
A Single Man ***1/2
Anvil! The Story of Anvil ***1/2
Humpday ***1/2
Fish Tank ***1/2
Capitalism: A Love Story ***1/2
Where the Wild Things Are ***
The Cove ***
Up in the Air ***
Sugar ***
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire ***
Away We Go ***
Funny People ***
The Hangover ***
THE GOOD (31) - These movies met or exceeded my admittedly high expectations, whether those are unfair or not.
Brothers ***
The Road ***
The Messenger ***
Red Cliff (Part I - DVD Import) ***
Watchmen ***
More Than a Game ***
In the Loop ***
The Blind Side ***
The Soloist ***
Everybody's Fine ***
An Education ***
The Informant! ***
Paranormal Activity ***
Fantastic Mr. Fox ***
Taken ***
Star Trek ***
Rudo y Cursi ***
Zombieland ***
Adventureland ***
I Love You, Man ***
The Collector ***
The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans ***
The Girlfriend Experience ***
Collapse ***
Big Fan ***
State of Play ***
Bruno ***
The Escapist ***
Mystery Team ***
Lymelife ***
Black Dynamite ***
THE GOOD BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (23) - Enjoyable enough but missing some crucial element.
Avatar ***
The White Ribbon **1/2
Up ***
Crazy Heart ***
District 9 ***
The Chaser ***
The Baader Meinhof Complex ***
Public Enemies ***
That Evening Sun ***
Julie & Julia ***
Tyson **1/2
Moon **1/2
Tetro **1/2
The Burning Plain **1/2
Coraline **1/2
The Great Buck Howard **1/2
The International **1/2
Whip It **1/2
Jennifer's Body **1/2
Bronson **1/2
The House of the Devil **1/2
Food Inc. **1/2
The Missing Person **1/2
THE GUILTY PLEASURES (24) - Most people will rag on these but they exceeded my modest expectations.
Martyrs ***
The Informers ***
Sherlock Holmes ***
World's Greatest Dad **1/2
Antichrist **1/2
Surveillance **1/2
Fanboys **1/2
Land of the Lost **1/2
Orphan **1/2
Crank 2: High Voltage **1/2
Law Abiding Citizen **1/2
Obsessed **1/2
The Killing Room (DVD) **1/2
Next Day Air **1/2
G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra **1/2
X-Men Origins: Wolverine **1/2
The Last House on the Left **1/2
Spread **1/2
Extract **1/2
Surrogates **1/2
The Slammin' Salmon **
Weapons (DVD) **
Paul Blart: Mall Cop **
Fired Up **
THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (28) - Failed to meet my reasonable expectations, or just generally unsatisfying.
A Serious Man **1/2
The Lovely Bones **1/2
Nine **1/2
Observe and Report **1/2
Invictus **1/2
Duplicity **1/2
Taking Woodstock **1/2
Thirst **1/2
Armored **
Knowing **
Paper Heart **
Drag Me to Hell **
The Box **
Angels and Demons **
Monsters vs. Aliens **
A Perfect Getaway **
Friday the 13th **
The Taking of Pelham 123 **
Couples Retreat **
The Brothers Bloom **
Year One **
The Goods: Live Hard Sell Hard **
Whatever Works *1/2
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus *1/2
Grace *1/2
The Marc Pease Experience *1/2
Brief Interviews With Hideous Men *1/2
Bart Got a Room *1/2
THE ACTIVELY BAD (10) - Not good movies AT ALL, and anyone who tries to argue otherwise is WRONG.
2012 *1/2
My Bloody Valentine 3-D *1/2
Horsemen *1/2
The Stepfather *1/2
Terminator Salvation *1/2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen *1/2
Pandorum *
Halloween II *
Amusement (DVD) *
Balls Out: Gary the Tennis Coach (DVD) *
DVD - Direct-to-DVD title
COMING SOON (3): A Prophet, Saw VI, Franklyn (DVD)
THE STANDOUTS (16) - Just great movies that you'd have to be crazy to neither appreciate nor enjoy.
The Hurt Locker ***1/2
Inglourious Basterds ***1/2
500 Days of Summer ***1/2
A Single Man ***1/2
Anvil! The Story of Anvil ***1/2
Humpday ***1/2
Fish Tank ***1/2
Capitalism: A Love Story ***1/2
Where the Wild Things Are ***
The Cove ***
Up in the Air ***
Sugar ***
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire ***
Away We Go ***
Funny People ***
The Hangover ***
THE GOOD (31) - These movies met or exceeded my admittedly high expectations, whether those are unfair or not.
Brothers ***
The Road ***
The Messenger ***
Red Cliff (Part I - DVD Import) ***
Watchmen ***
More Than a Game ***
In the Loop ***
The Blind Side ***
The Soloist ***
Everybody's Fine ***
An Education ***
The Informant! ***
Paranormal Activity ***
Fantastic Mr. Fox ***
Taken ***
Star Trek ***
Rudo y Cursi ***
Zombieland ***
Adventureland ***
I Love You, Man ***
The Collector ***
The Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans ***
The Girlfriend Experience ***
Collapse ***
Big Fan ***
State of Play ***
Bruno ***
The Escapist ***
Mystery Team ***
Lymelife ***
Black Dynamite ***
THE GOOD BUT SHOULD'VE BEEN BETTERS (23) - Enjoyable enough but missing some crucial element.
Avatar ***
The White Ribbon **1/2
Up ***
Crazy Heart ***
District 9 ***
The Chaser ***
The Baader Meinhof Complex ***
Public Enemies ***
That Evening Sun ***
Julie & Julia ***
Tyson **1/2
Moon **1/2
Tetro **1/2
The Burning Plain **1/2
Coraline **1/2
The Great Buck Howard **1/2
The International **1/2
Whip It **1/2
Jennifer's Body **1/2
Bronson **1/2
The House of the Devil **1/2
Food Inc. **1/2
The Missing Person **1/2
THE GUILTY PLEASURES (24) - Most people will rag on these but they exceeded my modest expectations.
Martyrs ***
The Informers ***
Sherlock Holmes ***
World's Greatest Dad **1/2
Antichrist **1/2
Surveillance **1/2
Fanboys **1/2
Land of the Lost **1/2
Orphan **1/2
Crank 2: High Voltage **1/2
Law Abiding Citizen **1/2
Obsessed **1/2
The Killing Room (DVD) **1/2
Next Day Air **1/2
G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra **1/2
X-Men Origins: Wolverine **1/2
The Last House on the Left **1/2
Spread **1/2
Extract **1/2
Surrogates **1/2
The Slammin' Salmon **
Weapons (DVD) **
Paul Blart: Mall Cop **
Fired Up **
THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (28) - Failed to meet my reasonable expectations, or just generally unsatisfying.
A Serious Man **1/2
The Lovely Bones **1/2
Nine **1/2
Observe and Report **1/2
Invictus **1/2
Duplicity **1/2
Taking Woodstock **1/2
Thirst **1/2
Armored **
Knowing **
Paper Heart **
Drag Me to Hell **
The Box **
Angels and Demons **
Monsters vs. Aliens **
A Perfect Getaway **
Friday the 13th **
The Taking of Pelham 123 **
Couples Retreat **
The Brothers Bloom **
Year One **
The Goods: Live Hard Sell Hard **
Whatever Works *1/2
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus *1/2
Grace *1/2
The Marc Pease Experience *1/2
Brief Interviews With Hideous Men *1/2
Bart Got a Room *1/2
THE ACTIVELY BAD (10) - Not good movies AT ALL, and anyone who tries to argue otherwise is WRONG.
2012 *1/2
My Bloody Valentine 3-D *1/2
Horsemen *1/2
The Stepfather *1/2
Terminator Salvation *1/2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen *1/2
Pandorum *
Halloween II *
Amusement (DVD) *
Balls Out: Gary the Tennis Coach (DVD) *
DVD - Direct-to-DVD title
COMING SOON (3): A Prophet, Saw VI, Franklyn (DVD)
Sunday, January 17, 2010
THE INSNEIDER'S FINAL GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS
Better late than never, right?
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win But Shouldn't: Up in the Air
Definitely Won't Win: Precious
Comments: This is a tough race to call. Where the Oscars might be down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, it's true that Up in the Air is very much still in play for the HFPA. Furthermore, Precious, which might make more sense for the Oscar then the Globe, takes a clear backseat here to the European sensibilities of Inglourious Basterds, which looms on the outside as a dark horse waiting to again rewrite history.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine
Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Could Win But Shouldn't: Julie & Julia
Definitely Won't Win: The Hangover
Comments: This could be the toughest race of the night to call. I would expect the Meryl Streep movies to split the vote. Julie & Julia seemed to be the more critically acclaimed film, but It's Complicated received a screenplay nod. The Hangover made the most money and seems to be the best liked, but it's the only nominee without a Best Actor or Actress nomination, and how many 40+ foreign journalists would really vote it as one of the two best movies of the year. Nine could benefit from the Harvey Weinstein campaign, plus the fact that it's the only musical in the category. That said, I can't shake the feeling that (500) Days of Summer was CLEARLY the best film in this category, and Globes voters would have to be blind not to see that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: James Cameron
Could Win But Shouldn't: Quentin Tarantino
Definitely Won't Win: Clint Eastwood
Comments: This is a 2-person race, between ex-spouses Bigelow and Cameron. Bigelow is expected to win but Avatar is a worldwide phenomenon and I'd expect the HFPA to honor Cameron and his box office behemoth here. His self-designation as King of the World may prove true tonight.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers
Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: George Clooney
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jeff Bridges
Definitely Won't Win: Tobey Maguire
Comments: As much as I hope that Firth or Bridges will take this award, there's no denying that the HFPA is an organization of starfuckers that won't be able to resist having Clooney take the stage for playing a slight variation of himself.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win But Shouldn't: Sandra Bullock
Definitely Won't Win: Emily Blunt
Comments: This is between Bullock and Mulligan. Something tells me Bullock may prevail on Oscar night, if not Sidibe. But for some reason, I expect the HFPA to want to honor Mulligan with her first "BIG" award. Plus a football drama with a Southern lead doesn't sound like the voters' cup of tea.
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
Should Win: Matt Damon
Will Win: Matt Damon
Could Win But Shouldn't: Robert Downey Jr.
Definitely Won't Win: Michael Stuhlbarg
Comments: Day-Lewis always brings it but he almost made it look too easy. On the other hand, Damon gained a ton of weight and burrowed into the physical transformation required of his character. Gordon-Levitt was really excellent but it seems like the nomination could wind up being his reward. I think the HFPA would love to have Iron Man Downey Jr. on stage but Sherlock Holmes is probably too slight of an effort. Look for Damon, who is also nominated for Supporting Actor, to prevail, joining his Ocean's 11 pal Clooney in the winner's circle.
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Could Win But Shouldn't: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Definitely Won't Win: Julia Roberts
Comments: This one is pretty much a lock. Cotillard was excellent but she wasn't in the movie that much. This is Streep's statue to lose. Her only competition is herself. Roberts led a non-starter of a movie. She's here for star appeal only. And Bullock will get a closer look for her performance in The Blind Side.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Could Win But Shouldn't: Woody Harrelson
Definitely Won't Win: Matt Damon
Comments: Lock it up. Nothing to say about this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Should Win: Mo'Nique
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Could Win But Shouldn't: Anna Kendrick
Definitely Won't Win: Julianne Moore
Comments: Ditto the above. It's a done deal, whether Mo'Nique likes it or not.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell - District 9
Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers - It's Complicated
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Definitely Won't Win: Nancy Meyers
Comments: This is a tough one. Up in the Air could pull it off, and don't count out Mark Boal. But something tells me it's Tarantino's turn. And frankly, he earned it.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
Could Win But Shouldn't: Coraline
Definitely Won't Win: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Comments: No contest. Fantastic Mr. Fox had a nice late surge but I don't think it will be enough to overthrow Pixar.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (La Nana) (Chile)
A Prophet (Un Prophete) (France)
The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band) (Germany)
Should Win: A Prophet
Will Win: A Prophet
Could Win But Shouldn't: The White Ribbon
Definitely Won't Win: Baaria
Comments: Never count out Pedro Almodovar but Broken Embraces never found awards traction stateside and A Prophet is a highly anticipated February release that won the Cannes Film Festival. The White Ribbon is a serious threat but something tells me that Haneke isn't for everyone.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - "I See You" by James Horner & Simon Franglen
Brothers - "Winter" by U2
Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind (Theme From 'Crazy Heart')" by Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Nine - "Cinema Italiano" by Maury Yeston
Everybody's Fine - "I Want To Come Home" by Paul McCartney
Should Win: Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Will Win: U2
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner & Simon Franglen
Definitely Won't Win: Maury Yeston
Comments: Will Globes voters be able to resist seeing U2 or Paul McCartnet onstage? I say no. Ryan Bingham's song is vital to Crazy Heart but country music may not be for most foreign journos. Avatar could definitely win even though Leona Lewis sings over the end credits and the song doesn't really match the rest of the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Michael Giacchino - Up
Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant!
James Horner - Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski - A Single Man
Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are
Should Win: Abel Korzeniowski
Will Win: Michael Giacchino
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner
Definitely Won't Win: Karen O and Carter Burwell
Comments: I thought Avatar's score was particularly weak, while Korzeniowski's work sparkled in A Single Man. Horner is the heavy favorite but Giacchino is a rising superstar, and Up is just as well-liked as Avatar.
Agree? Disagree? Agree to disagree? Let me hear you in the comments below!
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win But Shouldn't: Up in the Air
Definitely Won't Win: Precious
Comments: This is a tough race to call. Where the Oscars might be down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, it's true that Up in the Air is very much still in play for the HFPA. Furthermore, Precious, which might make more sense for the Oscar then the Globe, takes a clear backseat here to the European sensibilities of Inglourious Basterds, which looms on the outside as a dark horse waiting to again rewrite history.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine
Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Could Win But Shouldn't: Julie & Julia
Definitely Won't Win: The Hangover
Comments: This could be the toughest race of the night to call. I would expect the Meryl Streep movies to split the vote. Julie & Julia seemed to be the more critically acclaimed film, but It's Complicated received a screenplay nod. The Hangover made the most money and seems to be the best liked, but it's the only nominee without a Best Actor or Actress nomination, and how many 40+ foreign journalists would really vote it as one of the two best movies of the year. Nine could benefit from the Harvey Weinstein campaign, plus the fact that it's the only musical in the category. That said, I can't shake the feeling that (500) Days of Summer was CLEARLY the best film in this category, and Globes voters would have to be blind not to see that.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: James Cameron
Could Win But Shouldn't: Quentin Tarantino
Definitely Won't Win: Clint Eastwood
Comments: This is a 2-person race, between ex-spouses Bigelow and Cameron. Bigelow is expected to win but Avatar is a worldwide phenomenon and I'd expect the HFPA to honor Cameron and his box office behemoth here. His self-designation as King of the World may prove true tonight.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers
Should Win: Colin Firth
Will Win: George Clooney
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jeff Bridges
Definitely Won't Win: Tobey Maguire
Comments: As much as I hope that Firth or Bridges will take this award, there's no denying that the HFPA is an organization of starfuckers that won't be able to resist having Clooney take the stage for playing a slight variation of himself.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win But Shouldn't: Sandra Bullock
Definitely Won't Win: Emily Blunt
Comments: This is between Bullock and Mulligan. Something tells me Bullock may prevail on Oscar night, if not Sidibe. But for some reason, I expect the HFPA to want to honor Mulligan with her first "BIG" award. Plus a football drama with a Southern lead doesn't sound like the voters' cup of tea.
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
Should Win: Matt Damon
Will Win: Matt Damon
Could Win But Shouldn't: Robert Downey Jr.
Definitely Won't Win: Michael Stuhlbarg
Comments: Day-Lewis always brings it but he almost made it look too easy. On the other hand, Damon gained a ton of weight and burrowed into the physical transformation required of his character. Gordon-Levitt was really excellent but it seems like the nomination could wind up being his reward. I think the HFPA would love to have Iron Man Downey Jr. on stage but Sherlock Holmes is probably too slight of an effort. Look for Damon, who is also nominated for Supporting Actor, to prevail, joining his Ocean's 11 pal Clooney in the winner's circle.
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Could Win But Shouldn't: Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Definitely Won't Win: Julia Roberts
Comments: This one is pretty much a lock. Cotillard was excellent but she wasn't in the movie that much. This is Streep's statue to lose. Her only competition is herself. Roberts led a non-starter of a movie. She's here for star appeal only. And Bullock will get a closer look for her performance in The Blind Side.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Could Win But Shouldn't: Woody Harrelson
Definitely Won't Win: Matt Damon
Comments: Lock it up. Nothing to say about this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
Should Win: Mo'Nique
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Could Win But Shouldn't: Anna Kendrick
Definitely Won't Win: Julianne Moore
Comments: Ditto the above. It's a done deal, whether Mo'Nique likes it or not.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell - District 9
Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Nancy Meyers - It's Complicated
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino
Could Win But Shouldn't: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Definitely Won't Win: Nancy Meyers
Comments: This is a tough one. Up in the Air could pull it off, and don't count out Mark Boal. But something tells me it's Tarantino's turn. And frankly, he earned it.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
Could Win But Shouldn't: Coraline
Definitely Won't Win: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Comments: No contest. Fantastic Mr. Fox had a nice late surge but I don't think it will be enough to overthrow Pixar.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (La Nana) (Chile)
A Prophet (Un Prophete) (France)
The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band) (Germany)
Should Win: A Prophet
Will Win: A Prophet
Could Win But Shouldn't: The White Ribbon
Definitely Won't Win: Baaria
Comments: Never count out Pedro Almodovar but Broken Embraces never found awards traction stateside and A Prophet is a highly anticipated February release that won the Cannes Film Festival. The White Ribbon is a serious threat but something tells me that Haneke isn't for everyone.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - "I See You" by James Horner & Simon Franglen
Brothers - "Winter" by U2
Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind (Theme From 'Crazy Heart')" by Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Nine - "Cinema Italiano" by Maury Yeston
Everybody's Fine - "I Want To Come Home" by Paul McCartney
Should Win: Ryan Bingham & T Bone Burnett
Will Win: U2
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner & Simon Franglen
Definitely Won't Win: Maury Yeston
Comments: Will Globes voters be able to resist seeing U2 or Paul McCartnet onstage? I say no. Ryan Bingham's song is vital to Crazy Heart but country music may not be for most foreign journos. Avatar could definitely win even though Leona Lewis sings over the end credits and the song doesn't really match the rest of the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Michael Giacchino - Up
Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant!
James Horner - Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski - A Single Man
Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are
Should Win: Abel Korzeniowski
Will Win: Michael Giacchino
Could Win But Shouldn't: James Horner
Definitely Won't Win: Karen O and Carter Burwell
Comments: I thought Avatar's score was particularly weak, while Korzeniowski's work sparkled in A Single Man. Horner is the heavy favorite but Giacchino is a rising superstar, and Up is just as well-liked as Avatar.
Agree? Disagree? Agree to disagree? Let me hear you in the comments below!
Monday, January 11, 2010
Predicting the WGA Nominations
I didn't bother to predict the DGA or PGA nominations because, frankly, who cares? But the WGAs have always been a bit more interesting to me so let's take a stab at them. But first, a look at the movies that are ineligible this year for one reason or another.
Original: Adam, Antichrist, Broken Embraces, Capitalism: A Love Story, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, Inglourious Basterds, The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond, Me and Orson Welles, Moon, Ponyo, The Princess and the Frog, Trucker, Up, The White Ribbon
Adapted: Angels & Demons, Coco Before Chanel, The Damned United, District 9, An Education, Everybody’s Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, In the Loop, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Red Cliff, The Road, A Single Man, That Evening Sun, A Woman in Berlin
With that settled, here are my predictions for Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer - Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Bright Star - Jane Campion
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
A Serious Man - Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Sugar - Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden
It's tough to ignore the box office goliath that is Avatar here but James Cameron's screenplay isn't its strong suit. I realize that Titanic got a nomination here but that was a classy period piece. I think the WGA snubs Cameron and lets others have their day... Jon Lucas and Scott Moore's The Hangover is a close call but there were several other comedies this year with more graceful screenplays, such as Judd Apatow's Funny People, Greg Mottola's Adventureland, Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick's Zombieland and Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida's Away We Go. None of them had quite the same fresh perspective and perverse insight as (500) Days of Summer though... I gave Two Lovers some consideration, as well as The Messenger, with both being critics' darlings, but in the end, I gave that spot to Sugar. At the end of the day, it was the better movie. I think if The White Ribbon were eligible it would snag that 5th slot so instead I gave it to a wholly different foreign language film... If there are any other serious contenders, they'd have to be Nancy Meyers for It's Complicated, and Lynn Shelton for Humpday, which was rather brilliant. I think Bright Star gets a nod here since Campion has won the award before in 1993 for The Piano.
Moving on, here are my predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Blind Side - John Lee Hancock
Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher
Star Trek - Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Where the Wild Things Are - Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers
There's a lot of prestige sitting on the sidelines here but what can you do? Invictus, The Lovely Bones and Nine were all major letdowns, critically as much as commercially. The second tier of flopped "prestige" pics include Brothers and The Soloist... The Informant! is a close call here but that movie seems to have been forgotten, and those who remember immediately recall Matt Damon's performance before Scott Z. Burns' screenplay... The Last Station has to be in play here, as well as two more likely nominees in Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia, but for some reason, I think the WGA honors the moneymakers like The Blind Side and Star Trek. Where the Wild Things Are is my hip arthouse pick.
If I hit 7/10, I'll be happy. It's a very unpredictable field when you take into account all the ineligible screenplays. Best of luck to all the writers out there!
Original: Adam, Antichrist, Broken Embraces, Capitalism: A Love Story, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, Inglourious Basterds, The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond, Me and Orson Welles, Moon, Ponyo, The Princess and the Frog, Trucker, Up, The White Ribbon
Adapted: Angels & Demons, Coco Before Chanel, The Damned United, District 9, An Education, Everybody’s Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, In the Loop, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Red Cliff, The Road, A Single Man, That Evening Sun, A Woman in Berlin
With that settled, here are my predictions for Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer - Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Bright Star - Jane Campion
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
A Serious Man - Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Sugar - Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden
It's tough to ignore the box office goliath that is Avatar here but James Cameron's screenplay isn't its strong suit. I realize that Titanic got a nomination here but that was a classy period piece. I think the WGA snubs Cameron and lets others have their day... Jon Lucas and Scott Moore's The Hangover is a close call but there were several other comedies this year with more graceful screenplays, such as Judd Apatow's Funny People, Greg Mottola's Adventureland, Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick's Zombieland and Dave Eggers & Vendela Vida's Away We Go. None of them had quite the same fresh perspective and perverse insight as (500) Days of Summer though... I gave Two Lovers some consideration, as well as The Messenger, with both being critics' darlings, but in the end, I gave that spot to Sugar. At the end of the day, it was the better movie. I think if The White Ribbon were eligible it would snag that 5th slot so instead I gave it to a wholly different foreign language film... If there are any other serious contenders, they'd have to be Nancy Meyers for It's Complicated, and Lynn Shelton for Humpday, which was rather brilliant. I think Bright Star gets a nod here since Campion has won the award before in 1993 for The Piano.
Moving on, here are my predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Blind Side - John Lee Hancock
Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher
Star Trek - Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Where the Wild Things Are - Spike Jonze and Dave Eggers
There's a lot of prestige sitting on the sidelines here but what can you do? Invictus, The Lovely Bones and Nine were all major letdowns, critically as much as commercially. The second tier of flopped "prestige" pics include Brothers and The Soloist... The Informant! is a close call here but that movie seems to have been forgotten, and those who remember immediately recall Matt Damon's performance before Scott Z. Burns' screenplay... The Last Station has to be in play here, as well as two more likely nominees in Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia, but for some reason, I think the WGA honors the moneymakers like The Blind Side and Star Trek. Where the Wild Things Are is my hip arthouse pick.
If I hit 7/10, I'll be happy. It's a very unpredictable field when you take into account all the ineligible screenplays. Best of luck to all the writers out there!
Friday, January 8, 2010
If I Had An OSCAR Ballot...
...It would look something like this. Please keep in mind that while I loved certain movies (like ANVIL! and HUMPDAY, which were two of the top-10 movies of 2009 in my humble opinion) there's no way I could legitimately vote for them for Best Picture. These have to be SOMEWHAT realistic choices, otherwise there would be no point to this exercise. Also, I have abstained from voting in categories which I am ill-informed about (like Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Makeup, Original Song) or could not find five choices for due to my lack of familiarity with the possible nominees (Foreign Language, all shorts categories). Feel free to show off your own Oscar ballot in the comments section below, and thanks in advance for reading. I hope you enjoy my picks.
Note: An asterisk (*) denotes my vote to WIN.
BEST PICTURE
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man
Sugar
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Tom Ford, A Single Man
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Adam Sandler, Funny People
Robin Williams, World's Greatest Dad
BEST ACTRESS
Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
Zoe Saldana, Avatar
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious*
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender, Fish Tank
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine/Public Enemies
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious*
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
Away We Go
Humpday
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
In the Loop
A Single Man*
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox*
Up
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Anvil! The Story of Anvil*
Capitalism: A Love Story
Collapse
The Cove
More Than a Game
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man*
The White Ribbon
BEST EDITING
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek*
Up in the Air
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Inglourious Basterds*
Nine
A Single Man
Watchmen
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Hurt Locker
The Informant!
A Single Man*
Star Trek
Up
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar*
Star Trek
Watchmen
BEST ENSEMBLE (not an actual award)
Fish Tank
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
In the Loop
The White Ribbon
FINAL TALLY (out of 16):
Inglourious Basterds - 4 (Supp. Actor, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Ensemble)
A Single Man - 4 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score)
The Hurt Locker - 2 (Picture, Director)
Precious - 2 (Actress, Supp. Actress)
Anvil! The Story of Anvil - 1 (Documentary)
Avatar - 1 (Visual Effects)
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1 (Animated Feature)
Star Trek - 1 (Editing)
Note: An asterisk (*) denotes my vote to WIN.
BEST PICTURE
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man
Sugar
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Tom Ford, A Single Man
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Adam Sandler, Funny People
Robin Williams, World's Greatest Dad
BEST ACTRESS
Katie Jarvis, Fish Tank
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
Zoe Saldana, Avatar
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious*
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender, Fish Tank
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine/Public Enemies
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious*
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
Away We Go
Humpday
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
In the Loop
A Single Man*
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox*
Up
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Anvil! The Story of Anvil*
Capitalism: A Love Story
Collapse
The Cove
More Than a Game
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Single Man*
The White Ribbon
BEST EDITING
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek*
Up in the Air
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Inglourious Basterds*
Nine
A Single Man
Watchmen
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Hurt Locker
The Informant!
A Single Man*
Star Trek
Up
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar*
Star Trek
Watchmen
BEST ENSEMBLE (not an actual award)
Fish Tank
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds*
In the Loop
The White Ribbon
FINAL TALLY (out of 16):
Inglourious Basterds - 4 (Supp. Actor, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Ensemble)
A Single Man - 4 (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score)
The Hurt Locker - 2 (Picture, Director)
Precious - 2 (Actress, Supp. Actress)
Anvil! The Story of Anvil - 1 (Documentary)
Avatar - 1 (Visual Effects)
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1 (Animated Feature)
Star Trek - 1 (Editing)
Sunday, January 3, 2010
2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: NEW YEAR'S PULSE
It's 2010 and you know what that means... it's time to take the pulse of this year's Oscar race and revise my predictions accordingly. But first, here are the Top 5 Biggest Questions Heading Into the Home Stretch:
1. Q: Does Pixar's UP have a Best Picture nomination in the bag?
A: Beyond its first 20 minutes, I thought UP was pretty disappointing. It more or less already has the Oscar for Best Animated Feature (although FANTASTIC MR. FOX is coming on strong), so personally, I'd like to see another movie take its place in The Ten. That said, a Best Picture nomination is looking more and more likely as late releases like INVICTUS, NINE and THE LOVELY BONES are turning up DOA at the holiday box office.
2. Q: Can A SINGLE MAN win over enough voters to secure a Best Picture nomination?
A: God, I hope so... but probably not. I'm not hearing/seeing the traction it needs outside of Colin Firth's magnificent performance, which in my humble opinion is, without rival, the best of the year. The movie itself just isn't getting the attention it deserves. Harvey Weinstein should stop spending on NINE and start "paying" attention to Tom Ford's debut.
3. Q: What's the deal with THE LAST STATION? Did anybody actually see this movie? Are Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer both sure things?
A: I haven't seen THE LAST STATION but Mirren/Plummer are really messing up my predictions. Mirren I can live with because, well, she's Helen Mirren and I'm not that passionate about the lead actresses who would be left out (although I never saw Tilda Swinton in JULIA). But a "career achievement" nomination for Plummer? C'mon! There are a lot of deserving actors this year whose careers would definitely be helped by a supporting nomination. Can't we just pretend this movie never happened and nominate Emily Blunt or Abbie Cornish (or preferably Maya Rudolph from AWAY WE GO) for Best Actress and either Alfred Molina or Peter Sarsgaard from AN EDUCATION (or BROTHERS' Tobey Maguire or FISH TANK's Michael Fassbender)?
4. Q: Speaking of Best Supporting Actor, that's the deepest race this year. Can THE HURT LOCKER'S Anthony Mackie sneak in?
A: I think so. THE HURT LOCKER was by far the best movie of the year and Mackie was the cast's standout. Jeremy Renner may drive the movie's action but Mackie is the picture's heart and soul. It's a breakout performance that deserves to be properly recognized. But again, he's up against some tough competition, and the press seems to be seizing on Woody Harrelson and Alec Baldwin's late heat for THE MESSENGER and IT'S COMPLICATED, respectively.
5. Q: Does INVICTUS merit any attention outside of Morgan Freeman's lead performance, and is there any debate in the Best Actor category?
A: INVICTUS was a total rush job by Clint Eastwood that failed as a sports movie and as a movie about Nelson Mandela, so no, it deserves to be ignored with the exception of Freeman, who wasn't even that great as Mandela but nonetheless was good enough in a weak field. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis in NINE, but both awards season veterans should find enough good will to secure nominations. It'd be an Oscar travesty if Jeremy Renner isn't nominated for carrying THE HURT LOCKER. He's probably the last guy in but that's OK since there's not really a sixth man threatening his position. The predicted five should be safe.
Without further ado, here are The InSneider's latest predictions for the 82nd Academy Awards. Let's take a look, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: A Single Man
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: None
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Tobey Maguire, Brothers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
ALT: Up
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
District 9
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air
ALT: Julie & Julia
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
ALT: The White Ribbon
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
The Young Victoria
ALT: Public Enemies
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
A Serious Man
ALT: Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The (Non-Doc/Foreign/Short) Contenders: 9, 500 Days of Summer, Amelia, An Education, Antichrist, Anvil: The Story of Anvil, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, The Boys Are Back, Bright Star, Broken Embraces, Bronson, Brothers, Bruno, Capitalism: A Love Story, Cheri, A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Coco Before Chanel, Collapse, Coraline, The Cove, Crazy Heart, Crude, The Damned United, District 9, Everybody's Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Fish Tank, Food Inc., Funny People, The Hangover, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Humpday, The Hurt Locker, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, The Informant!, Inglourious Basterds, In the Loop, Invictus, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Moon, Nine, Ponyo, Precious, The Princess and the Frog, Public Enemies, The Road, A Serious Man, A Single Man, Sin Nombre, The Soloist, Star Trek, The Stoning of Soraya M., Sugar, Taking Woodstock, Terminator Salvation, Tetro, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Up in the Air, Valentino: The Last Emperor, Watchmen, Whatever Works, Where the Wild Things Are, The White Ribbon, The Young Victoria
1. Q: Does Pixar's UP have a Best Picture nomination in the bag?
A: Beyond its first 20 minutes, I thought UP was pretty disappointing. It more or less already has the Oscar for Best Animated Feature (although FANTASTIC MR. FOX is coming on strong), so personally, I'd like to see another movie take its place in The Ten. That said, a Best Picture nomination is looking more and more likely as late releases like INVICTUS, NINE and THE LOVELY BONES are turning up DOA at the holiday box office.
2. Q: Can A SINGLE MAN win over enough voters to secure a Best Picture nomination?
A: God, I hope so... but probably not. I'm not hearing/seeing the traction it needs outside of Colin Firth's magnificent performance, which in my humble opinion is, without rival, the best of the year. The movie itself just isn't getting the attention it deserves. Harvey Weinstein should stop spending on NINE and start "paying" attention to Tom Ford's debut.
3. Q: What's the deal with THE LAST STATION? Did anybody actually see this movie? Are Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer both sure things?
A: I haven't seen THE LAST STATION but Mirren/Plummer are really messing up my predictions. Mirren I can live with because, well, she's Helen Mirren and I'm not that passionate about the lead actresses who would be left out (although I never saw Tilda Swinton in JULIA). But a "career achievement" nomination for Plummer? C'mon! There are a lot of deserving actors this year whose careers would definitely be helped by a supporting nomination. Can't we just pretend this movie never happened and nominate Emily Blunt or Abbie Cornish (or preferably Maya Rudolph from AWAY WE GO) for Best Actress and either Alfred Molina or Peter Sarsgaard from AN EDUCATION (or BROTHERS' Tobey Maguire or FISH TANK's Michael Fassbender)?
4. Q: Speaking of Best Supporting Actor, that's the deepest race this year. Can THE HURT LOCKER'S Anthony Mackie sneak in?
A: I think so. THE HURT LOCKER was by far the best movie of the year and Mackie was the cast's standout. Jeremy Renner may drive the movie's action but Mackie is the picture's heart and soul. It's a breakout performance that deserves to be properly recognized. But again, he's up against some tough competition, and the press seems to be seizing on Woody Harrelson and Alec Baldwin's late heat for THE MESSENGER and IT'S COMPLICATED, respectively.
5. Q: Does INVICTUS merit any attention outside of Morgan Freeman's lead performance, and is there any debate in the Best Actor category?
A: INVICTUS was a total rush job by Clint Eastwood that failed as a sports movie and as a movie about Nelson Mandela, so no, it deserves to be ignored with the exception of Freeman, who wasn't even that great as Mandela but nonetheless was good enough in a weak field. The same goes for Daniel Day-Lewis in NINE, but both awards season veterans should find enough good will to secure nominations. It'd be an Oscar travesty if Jeremy Renner isn't nominated for carrying THE HURT LOCKER. He's probably the last guy in but that's OK since there's not really a sixth man threatening his position. The predicted five should be safe.
Without further ado, here are The InSneider's latest predictions for the 82nd Academy Awards. Let's take a look, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: A Single Man
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: None
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Tobey Maguire, Brothers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
ALT: Up
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
District 9
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air
ALT: Julie & Julia
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
ALT: The White Ribbon
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
The Young Victoria
ALT: Public Enemies
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
A Serious Man
ALT: Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The (Non-Doc/Foreign/Short) Contenders: 9, 500 Days of Summer, Amelia, An Education, Antichrist, Anvil: The Story of Anvil, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, The Boys Are Back, Bright Star, Broken Embraces, Bronson, Brothers, Bruno, Capitalism: A Love Story, Cheri, A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Coco Before Chanel, Collapse, Coraline, The Cove, Crazy Heart, Crude, The Damned United, District 9, Everybody's Fine, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Fish Tank, Food Inc., Funny People, The Hangover, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Humpday, The Hurt Locker, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, The Informant!, Inglourious Basterds, In the Loop, Invictus, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, The Men Who Stare at Goats, Moon, Nine, Ponyo, Precious, The Princess and the Frog, Public Enemies, The Road, A Serious Man, A Single Man, Sin Nombre, The Soloist, Star Trek, The Stoning of Soraya M., Sugar, Taking Woodstock, Terminator Salvation, Tetro, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Up in the Air, Valentino: The Last Emperor, Watchmen, Whatever Works, Where the Wild Things Are, The White Ribbon, The Young Victoria
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