Here's my scorecard, with analysis for every category. Capitalized movies were nominated and movies in parentheses are those that I predicted would be nominated and were not. And let me hear how you did in the comments section below!
NOTE: * indicates my early projection to win the Academy Award
BEST PICTURE (9/10)
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A SERIOUS MAN (Star Trek)
Up
Up in the Air
I was humming along with 7 in a row, and I finished strong with the last 2, but it was #8 that proved to be an insurmountable obstacle. Hours before I made my FINAL predictions, I had A Serious Man locked in as a Best Picture nominee. Then I spoke with a girl I trust and she convinced me that The Blind Side would be nominated. Considering its impressive box office and late-season heat, it wasn't a bad gamble. Because Star Trek was one of the 2-3 standouts of the first half of 2009 and most people liked it, I thought it had a chance at beating out the Coens' love-it or hate-it A Serious Man, which had encountered its own backlash, facing accusations of anti-Semitism. But the Coens prevailed over Capt. Spock and the gang. I suppose it was wishful thinking on my part. The Academy going for 3 sci-fi movies would be unusual, even for them. This race is still Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker and it's looking like the little guy could actually pull off the "upset."
BEST DIRECTOR (5/5)
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
What more is there to say, really? This is between Bigelow and her ex-husband, Mr. James "self-proclaimed 'King of the World'" Cameron.
BEST ACTOR (5/5)
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart*
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
No surprises here. This is Bridges' Oscar to lose at this point.
BEST ACTRESS (5/5)
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side*
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Again, nothing to bat an eyelash over. It's Bullock vs. Streep all over again, although I do think that Sidibe and Mulligan will get a higher percentage of the votes than they did at the Golden Globes. This is the one acting category to keep your eye on. Things could get interesting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (4/5)
MATT DAMON, INVICTUS (Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker)
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds*
Simply an instance of wishful thinking on my part. I wrote from my heart, rather than my head. Mackie turned in the 2nd best supporting performance of the year but somehow got snubbed in favor of a completely forgettable Matt Damon performance that barely registered in a dull, uneven movie. This is a black eye for the Academy. Ridiculous! I understand why Freeman had to be nominated for playing Mandela, but Damon? C'mon, AMPAS! Over Molina and Sarsgaard too? Unacceptable! Waltz will waltz away with this one, no contest.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (3/5)
PENELOPE CRUZ, NINE (Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds)
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL, CRAZY HEART (Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds)
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious*
A couple of surprises here. Predicting both Inglourious actresses was obviously a long-shot on my part, but I wasn't expecting both of them to be snubbed, let alone by someone from Nine not named Marion Cotillard, who was easily the best thing about that movie. Still, I suppose Cruz was the next best and she's obviously beloved by the Academy, since this is her 3rd nomination in 4 years. Fox Searchlight did such a great job with the Crazy Heart campaign that up until the last minute, I thought it had a legit chance at a Best Picture nom. Gyllenhaal has been snubbed before, for Secretary and Sherrybaby, so maybe this was the Academy's way of making it up to her. I do think that she was better than Samantha Morton and Julianne Moore, so I'm fine with her recognition despite my disappointment that both Basterdesses were left out in the cold. Regardless, Mo'Nique takes this award without much of a fight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (4/5)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
THE MESSENGER (500 Days of Summer)
A Serious Man
Up
Along with Mackie, the exclusion of Summer writers Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber was the most heartbreaking for me. I loved their movie and I was very surprised to see them snubbed in a category that Fox Searclight has had success with young writers in before. See Little Miss Sunshine's Michael Arndt and Juno's Diablo Cody. I quite liked The Messenger and would've liked to have seen it nominated over A Serious Man or Up, but it knocked my second-favorite screenplay of the year out of contention, leaving that excellent film with no nominations, same as me. A shame, but congrats to Oren Moverman and Alessandro Camon. Shocked to see the Academy honor two war-themed movies (3 if you count Basterds) here but then again, they are very different depictions. Expect The Hurt Locker's Mark Boal to walk away with the gold statue.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5)
DISTRICT 9 (Crazy Heart)
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air*
Crazy Heart had the WGA and the Scripter on its side but in the end the movie with the Best Picture nomination won out. So happy to see In the Loop here. It looks like the Brit contingent stood up for themselves, and it's a well-deserved nomination. Sad for A Single Man's Tom Ford, who wrote a touching adapted screenplay with David Searce. There's been a lot of bad press swirling around Up in the Air's Jason Reitman but this award is his and Sheldon Turner's to lose.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (4/5)
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
THE SECRET OF KELLS (Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs)
Up*
Find me someone who went 5/5 in this category. I dare you. This was the biggest surprise of the morning. I don't even know what The Secret of Kells is! I thought it was a filler submission so there could be 5 nominees this year. Congrats to Tomm Moore I suppose! Pixar's Up still has this in the bag, although Wes Anderson's Fantastic Mr. Fox will give it a run for its money.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (2/5)
Burma VJ
The Cove*
FOOD, INC. (The Beaches of Agnes)
THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS (Every Little Step)
WHICH WAY HOME (Mugabe and the White African)
See what happens when you don't know the nominees? You get burned! I had a feeling that the Daniel Ellsberg documentary was going to get in. Should've gone with that over Mugabe and the White African. Really thought Every Little Step was going to make the cut here. Surprised to see Food, Inc. in the field. I did see that one and I had some problems with it. The Cove should swim away with Oscar gold on the big night.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (4/5)
Ajami - Israel
THE MILK OF SORROW - PERU (Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands)
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany*
The three locks delivered and Israel found the support it needed for Ajami. Winter in Wartime just got picked up by SPC which made me think it'd be a bit more accessible, which is exactly what I've heard The Milk of Sorrow wasn't. In the end, the Netherlands' loss was Peru's gain. It's always a tough category to predict, and Haneke isn't for everyone, but barring an upset, his White Ribbon has the Oscar wrapped up.
BEST ART DIRECTION (2/5)
Avatar*
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
NINE (Inglourious Basterds)
Sherlock Holmes
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (Star Trek)
Not one of my best categories. Dr. Parnassus was a trendy pick here early in the season and I don't know why I forgot about it. Oh wait, yes I do. It was a horrible movie. But I'm happy to give credit where credit is due and yes, Terry Gillim's movie looked great and brought the funky weirdness. Surprised to see The Young Victoria here and not Basterds but what do I know. The blockbuster guesses did not pay off. Tsk tsk.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)
Avatar
HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE (Nine)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
I've never seen a Harry Potter movie and I don't care to start now. Hadn't really heard a single mention about the cinematography in the latest HP sequel. This one came completely out of left-field, but at least it bumped out Nine, which for all its bells and whistler, still looked visually drab and plastic. No clue who takes this award, other than I feel confident saying it won't be Harry Potter 6. A lot of different styles on display here. Good variety. A fun category that pits Avatar directly against The Hurt Locker.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5)
Bright Star*
COCO BEFORE CHANEL (Inglourious Basterds)
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS (Sherlock Holmes)
Nine
The Young Victoria
Not bad, although I'm puzzled as to why Inglourious Basterds isn't here. Then again, I've only seen Nine and Dr. Parnassus and neither one was a good movie, so perhaps that's where my bias stems from. Still, all of these nominees seem awfully alike with the exception of the wacky Dr. Parnassus. A total toss-up for me.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
DISTRICT 9 (Star Trek)
The Hurt Locker*
Inglourious Basterds
PRECIOUS (Up in the Air)
Kinda shocked to see Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman missing here. Thought she was a can't miss lock. Not surprised District 9 got the nod over Star Trek. Thought some of those cuts in Precious were a little curious to say the least, but I guess the Academy went for its daring choices and artistic flourishes.
BEST MAKEUP (1/3)
IL DIVO (District 9)
Star Trek*
THE YOUNG VICTORIA (The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus)
The Young Victoria's inclusion here came as a surprise, more so than Il Divo, which I still have to see. Apparently Toni Servillo's aging is remarkable. I'll pass and revisit this category at a later date...
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (2/5)
Avatar
FANTASTIC MR. FOX (The Informant!)
THE HURT LOCKER (A Single Man)
SHERLOCK HOLMES (Star Trek)
Up*
So Giacchino didn't pull off the rare double nomination but he's still the front-runner for his wonderful work on Up. The Hurt Locker is the big surprise in this category. I've been a fan of Marco Beltrami's since the Scream days, right up to 3:10 to Yuma. He's paid his dues and it was nice to see him rewarded with a second nomination. He really added to the tension of Bigelow's film. This category could provide a minor surprise on Oscar night. Keep an ear out!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG (2/5)
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett*
NINE - TAKE IT ALL BY MAURY YESTON (Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston)
PARIS 36 - LOIN DE PANAME BY WAGNER/THOMAS (Avatar - 'I See You' by L. Lewis/J. Horner)
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG - 'DOWN IN NEW ORLEANS' BY RANDY NEWMAN (An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley)
I feign ignorance on Disney's The Princess and the Frog. Should've expected two nominations from that one. And I definitely haven't seen Paris 36, let alone listened to any original music from the movie. Picked the wrong song from Nine too. Tough category. Oh well. No U2 or Paul McCartney could leave the door open for a "crazy" win by Ryan Bingham and previous Oscar nominee T Bone Burnett.
BEST SOUND EDITING (3/5)
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
UP (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)
I thought Up would get one of these nods, which is why I had it as the alternate pick in both categories. No idea why Basterds got these nods over District 9 and to be honest, I don't really care. The only people who do are sound editors and mixers. Avatar takes both of these, right?
BEST SOUND MIXING (4/5)
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS (District 9)
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
See above.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3/3)
Avatar*
District 9
Star Trek
Avatar takes this in a cakewalk. It has a date with destiny in this category, I'm afraid.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The InSneider's FINAL 2010 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
The Time is upon us. Nomination Tuesday. There may be a few laughs. There will probably be a few tears. There will definitely be a few surprises. But unfortunately, there will not be any blood, unless Twilight: New Moon is nominated for Best Picture. Then I might be compelled to kill indiscriminately.
For "reel" though folks, tomorrow's Best Picture nominees are anyone's guess. Guys like Kris Tapley, Steve Pond and Dave Karger know better than I, but the bottom line is that none of us have a vote, and with 10 Best Picture nominees this year and a new preferential voting system, the once-predictable Academy is capable of anything. So let's give it our best shot, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: The Hangover
I'd say there are 7 locks in this race and they're not who you might think. The vulnerable three are The Blind Side, Star Trek and oddly enough, Up, in that order from least to most. I really feel that District 9 is a lock and that Blomkamp is a Lee Daniels-backlash away from a Best Director nomination. It's Complicated, The Hangover, The Messenger, Invictus, Nine, The White Ribbon and (500) Days of Summer could all slide in here and shake up the landscape for the Big Prize. I think it really boils down to the consensus... what movies did everyone agree to like. A Serious Man is a polarizing film. Some love it, others hate it. That won't fly with Oscar... I think. Up wasn't nearly as beloved as Wall-E, which famously failed to land a nomination, bu the expansion to 10 nominees seems pre-designed to help Pixar escape the nomination ghetto.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
This category is pretty much sewn up. I don't think Blomkamp will be nominated for his first feature, and even though Daniels hasn't won over many people on the publicity circuit, he deserves credit for pulling off a tricky adaptation of difficult material. If there's a dark horse, it's Austrian helmer Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon. An Education helmer Lone Scherfig is an ultra-long shot.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: Matt Damon, The Informant!
This one is all but set in stone. If there's a weak link, it's Morgan Freeman who seems content to coast on his reputation at this point in his career, but the lure of him as Mandela will be too strong for voters to resist. Some feel The Road's Viggo Mortensen or The Messenger's Ben Foster could pull off a surprise nomination but if anyone sneaks into the field, it'll be Damon, who has hasn't been nominated since Good Will Hunting despite 13 years of steadily impressive work.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Again, I think you can take this category to the bank. It's possible that a lot of voters didn't see The Last Station but I think Mirren has enough support in the ranks. It'll be close but she should hang on against young upstarts Blunt and Abbie Cornish.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Alfred Molina, An Education
UPSET ALERT! The Academy, as a group, is not dumb, nor is it blind. To ignore Anthony Mackie's stellar work in The Hurt Locker would be a crime on par with the nomination of Johnny Depp for Best Actor in Pirates of the Caribbean. Jeremy Renner would never have given the performance that he did, if Mackie didn't push him in every scene. Kathryn Bigelow would not be winning all these awards if Mackie didn't bring his A-game to the set every day. I think the Academy ends up recognizing his invaluable contributions. Molina's heat has been fading fast, especially with his co-star Peter Sarsgaard also competing in the category. If anyone else slips in under the radar, it could be Christian McKay whose portrayal of Orson Welles in Me & Orson Welles won raves across the board. Alec Baldwin has also been popping up on some lists but I think they'll only capacity in which you'll see him at the Oscars will be as co-host with Steve Martin. It would be embarrassing if Matt Damon got nominated here for Invictus in the same year he gave a better performance in the superior film The Informant!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
UPSET ALERT! This is me going way out on a limb. Kruger got the SAG nomination but Laurent was clearly the heart and soul of Inglourious Basterds. The two foreign actresses could cancel each other out, or support for Basterds could overwhelm the mighty trio of Moore, Crazy Heart's Maggie Gyllenhaal and The Messenger's Samantha Morton. Meanwhile, Nine and its lovely ladies, including Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz, seems to have fallen off dramatically. As much as I loved A Single Man, I just don't see what was so special about Moore's performance, but if she is nominated, it'll likely be over one of the Basterdesses and Oscar darling Samantha Morton.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
ALT: Avatar
UPSET ALERT! Why is it such a given that Pixar's Up will be nominated here? Outside of its first 10 minutes, it's a completely forgettable film. Will that heartbreaking first sequence be enough to overpower the box office behemoth known as Avatar. I'm also not sure why The Coen Brothers are considered locks, but if the film finds enough support for a Best Picture nomination, then that passion will carry over to this category. If not, we could see The Messenger, The White Ribbon or possibly The Hangover. History says that since James Cameron wasn't nominated for Titanic, he's liable to miss out again this year. Not surprising since Avatar's strong suit wasn't its screenplay. On the other hand, you don't make $2 billion worldwide with a shitty script...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
UPSET ALERT! Tough category. Crazy Heart and In the Loop are not sure bets at all, and A Single Man, District 9, Julie & Julia or Fantastic Mr. Fox could very well take one of those two spots. But something tells me the Brits will assert their influence in this category and give In the Loop the boost it needs, and none of the three sci-fi Best Picture nominees will score writing nods, but they'll all score visual effects nods. I don't think the Star Trek duo of Kurtzman and Orci should get there hopes up here despite scoring WGA nods, although that recognition is a good sign for Crazy Heart writer/director Scott Cooper.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
The Academy loves Miyazaki but something tells me that tomorrow's forecast will be Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which earned surprising critical acclaim and made a mint at the box office. Mary and Max and A Town Called Panic loom as long-shot contenders.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
UPSET ALERT! I've got a feeling that Food Inc. will find itself on the outside looking in. The Daniel Ellsburg documentary could find its way into this field too. The Cove is the only real lock here but I admittedly haven't seen enough of the movies shortlisted for this award. Scott Feinberg is predicting four different movies in addition to The Cove, so clearly I know nothing.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami - Israel
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany
Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands
ALT: The Milk of Sorrow - Peru
Call it a hunch. This is as much about the movies as it is the countries submitting them, which makes me think Israel's Ajami will get a nomination over Peru's The Milk of Sorrow, which itself could invade The Netherlands' spot. But Winter in Wartime just got theatrical distribution which makes me think it will score a nod after all, plus I've read that Peru's entry is pretty abstract. A Prophet and The White Ribbon will surely make the cut, as should Argentina's entry The Secret in Their Eyes.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
ALT: A Serious Man
Could The Lovely Bones finally find some love here? It's possible, but something tells me Avatar and Basterds are locked, and Sherlock Holmes is a strong #3. I expect Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek to show up before Jess Gonchor's solid work in A Serious Man, while District 9 remains a serious possibility here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon
ALT: The Road
A Serious Man's Roger Deakins is always a threat here, and for my money, A Single Man featured the best cinematography of the year. But The Road's Javier Aguirresarobe could be the one who benefits if Nine registers as a zero with the Academy. It's definitely the one wearing the bulls-eye on its back in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
ALT: Coco Before Chanel
Shame that A Single Man isn't getting more attention for its classy threads, but so it goes for a film that has been criminally ignored this season. The most memorable costumes of the year, in my opinion, were Melanie Laurent's red dress and Brad Pitt's white tux in Inglourious Basterds. The stars of Nine basked in the glow of its high fashion, while the other three nominees all satisfy the Victorian quotient.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
Something tells me that A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer will draw the short straws in this category, especially if all three of the sci-fi films score Best Picture nominations. I thought Alan Edward Bell did a great job handling Summer's unique structure and successfully charting the peaks and valleys of that doomed relationship. If the Coens are, for some reason, ignored in the Original Screenplay category, a consolation nomination could manifest itself here under their editing alias Roderick Jaynes. I give Star Trek the nod over District 9 because it felt like the fastest film of the year to me, although both could get in if Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke pays the price for his long, talky scenes. Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman is a well-respected pro so she's definitely in.
BEST MAKEUP
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek
ALT: Il Divo
Oscar loves its actors who age but the work in District 9 and Star Trek is too showy to be ignored, and I'd "imagine" Dr. Parnassus will steal that third spot thanks to Terry Gilliam's wacky vision.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
UPSET ALERT! Another tricky category. I bet Michael Giacchino scores a well-deserved double nomination here for his work on Star Trek and Up, although the latter is the safer bet. Hans Zimmer was ineligible last year for The Dark Knight, so he could get some sympathy love for his work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat did some delightful work in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Hamlisch's marvelous score for The Informant! could be a critics-only thing but I think the veteran composer will hear his name, along with Abel Korzeniowski, whose work in A Single Man was the single best of the year. James Horner's Avatar score was actively forgettable but I doubt he'll be denied, especially since the Academy's orchestra will be playing his music all evening.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - 'I See You' by Leona Lewis and James Horner
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley
Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
ALT: 'Down in New Orleans' from The Princess and the Frog
I really have no idea how this one goes, as the Music Branch is a fuckin' fickle bunch. If I was concerned about TV ratings, I would nominate U2 for singing "Happy Birthday" at this point. Crazy Heart's Bingham is guaranteed a nomination, as is Randy Newman, although I haven't heard any songs from that soundtrack so I'm not exactly a qualified expert. The Leona Lewis track at the end of Avatar was tacky and didn't really fit with the rest of the movie but Avatar has to get double-digit nominations somehow, right?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Who knows? Who cares? This is for the stat-padders.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Ditto. Except for the ongoing story about Transformers mixer Greg Russell, who has been nominated something like 11 times without winning once.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: 2012
2012 featured non-stop mayhem but something tells me that black hole in Star Trek will be the difference. Plus it was, you know, a good movie. The flashy effects of Transformers 2 could also sneak in here over District 9.
APPRX. FINAL TALLY:
Avatar - 10
Inglourious Basterds - 10
The Hurt Locker - 9
Star Trek - 7
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 5
Precious - 5
An Education - 4
Up - 4
Crazy Heart - 3
Nine - 3
The Blind Side - 2
The Last Station - 2
The Princess and the Frog - 2
Sherlock Holmes - 2
A Single Man - 2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 2
The White Ribbon - 2
(500) Days of Summer - 1
Ajami - 1
The Beaches of Agnes - 1
Bright Star - 1
Burma VJ - 1
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - 1
Coraline - 1
The Cove - 1
Every Little Step - 1
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 1
The Informant! - 1
In the Loop - 1
Invictus - 1
Julie & Julia - 1
The Lovely Bones - 1
The Messenger - 1
Mugabe and the White Elephant - 1
A Prophet - 1
The Secret of Their Eyes - 1
A Serious Man - 1
Winter in Wartime - 1
The Young Victoria - 1
For "reel" though folks, tomorrow's Best Picture nominees are anyone's guess. Guys like Kris Tapley, Steve Pond and Dave Karger know better than I, but the bottom line is that none of us have a vote, and with 10 Best Picture nominees this year and a new preferential voting system, the once-predictable Academy is capable of anything. So let's give it our best shot, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
ALT: The Hangover
I'd say there are 7 locks in this race and they're not who you might think. The vulnerable three are The Blind Side, Star Trek and oddly enough, Up, in that order from least to most. I really feel that District 9 is a lock and that Blomkamp is a Lee Daniels-backlash away from a Best Director nomination. It's Complicated, The Hangover, The Messenger, Invictus, Nine, The White Ribbon and (500) Days of Summer could all slide in here and shake up the landscape for the Big Prize. I think it really boils down to the consensus... what movies did everyone agree to like. A Serious Man is a polarizing film. Some love it, others hate it. That won't fly with Oscar... I think. Up wasn't nearly as beloved as Wall-E, which famously failed to land a nomination, bu the expansion to 10 nominees seems pre-designed to help Pixar escape the nomination ghetto.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Neill Blomkamp, District 9
This category is pretty much sewn up. I don't think Blomkamp will be nominated for his first feature, and even though Daniels hasn't won over many people on the publicity circuit, he deserves credit for pulling off a tricky adaptation of difficult material. If there's a dark horse, it's Austrian helmer Michael Haneke for The White Ribbon. An Education helmer Lone Scherfig is an ultra-long shot.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
ALT: Matt Damon, The Informant!
This one is all but set in stone. If there's a weak link, it's Morgan Freeman who seems content to coast on his reputation at this point in his career, but the lure of him as Mandela will be too strong for voters to resist. Some feel The Road's Viggo Mortensen or The Messenger's Ben Foster could pull off a surprise nomination but if anyone sneaks into the field, it'll be Damon, who has hasn't been nominated since Good Will Hunting despite 13 years of steadily impressive work.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
ALT: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Again, I think you can take this category to the bank. It's possible that a lot of voters didn't see The Last Station but I think Mirren has enough support in the ranks. It'll be close but she should hang on against young upstarts Blunt and Abbie Cornish.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
ALT: Alfred Molina, An Education
UPSET ALERT! The Academy, as a group, is not dumb, nor is it blind. To ignore Anthony Mackie's stellar work in The Hurt Locker would be a crime on par with the nomination of Johnny Depp for Best Actor in Pirates of the Caribbean. Jeremy Renner would never have given the performance that he did, if Mackie didn't push him in every scene. Kathryn Bigelow would not be winning all these awards if Mackie didn't bring his A-game to the set every day. I think the Academy ends up recognizing his invaluable contributions. Molina's heat has been fading fast, especially with his co-star Peter Sarsgaard also competing in the category. If anyone else slips in under the radar, it could be Christian McKay whose portrayal of Orson Welles in Me & Orson Welles won raves across the board. Alec Baldwin has also been popping up on some lists but I think they'll only capacity in which you'll see him at the Oscars will be as co-host with Steve Martin. It would be embarrassing if Matt Damon got nominated here for Invictus in the same year he gave a better performance in the superior film The Informant!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious
ALT: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
UPSET ALERT! This is me going way out on a limb. Kruger got the SAG nomination but Laurent was clearly the heart and soul of Inglourious Basterds. The two foreign actresses could cancel each other out, or support for Basterds could overwhelm the mighty trio of Moore, Crazy Heart's Maggie Gyllenhaal and The Messenger's Samantha Morton. Meanwhile, Nine and its lovely ladies, including Marion Cotillard and Penelope Cruz, seems to have fallen off dramatically. As much as I loved A Single Man, I just don't see what was so special about Moore's performance, but if she is nominated, it'll likely be over one of the Basterdesses and Oscar darling Samantha Morton.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
ALT: Avatar
UPSET ALERT! Why is it such a given that Pixar's Up will be nominated here? Outside of its first 10 minutes, it's a completely forgettable film. Will that heartbreaking first sequence be enough to overpower the box office behemoth known as Avatar. I'm also not sure why The Coen Brothers are considered locks, but if the film finds enough support for a Best Picture nomination, then that passion will carry over to this category. If not, we could see The Messenger, The White Ribbon or possibly The Hangover. History says that since James Cameron wasn't nominated for Titanic, he's liable to miss out again this year. Not surprising since Avatar's strong suit wasn't its screenplay. On the other hand, you don't make $2 billion worldwide with a shitty script...
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
UPSET ALERT! Tough category. Crazy Heart and In the Loop are not sure bets at all, and A Single Man, District 9, Julie & Julia or Fantastic Mr. Fox could very well take one of those two spots. But something tells me the Brits will assert their influence in this category and give In the Loop the boost it needs, and none of the three sci-fi Best Picture nominees will score writing nods, but they'll all score visual effects nods. I don't think the Star Trek duo of Kurtzman and Orci should get there hopes up here despite scoring WGA nods, although that recognition is a good sign for Crazy Heart writer/director Scott Cooper.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
ALT: Ponyo
The Academy loves Miyazaki but something tells me that tomorrow's forecast will be Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which earned surprising critical acclaim and made a mint at the box office. Mary and Max and A Town Called Panic loom as long-shot contenders.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
Burma VJ
The Cove
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
ALT: Food, Inc.
UPSET ALERT! I've got a feeling that Food Inc. will find itself on the outside looking in. The Daniel Ellsburg documentary could find its way into this field too. The Cove is the only real lock here but I admittedly haven't seen enough of the movies shortlisted for this award. Scott Feinberg is predicting four different movies in addition to The Cove, so clearly I know nothing.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami - Israel
A Prophet - France
The Secret in Their Eyes - Argentina
The White Ribbon - Germany
Winter in Wartime - The Netherlands
ALT: The Milk of Sorrow - Peru
Call it a hunch. This is as much about the movies as it is the countries submitting them, which makes me think Israel's Ajami will get a nomination over Peru's The Milk of Sorrow, which itself could invade The Netherlands' spot. But Winter in Wartime just got theatrical distribution which makes me think it will score a nod after all, plus I've read that Peru's entry is pretty abstract. A Prophet and The White Ribbon will surely make the cut, as should Argentina's entry The Secret in Their Eyes.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
ALT: A Serious Man
Could The Lovely Bones finally find some love here? It's possible, but something tells me Avatar and Basterds are locked, and Sherlock Holmes is a strong #3. I expect Harry Potter 6 and Star Trek to show up before Jess Gonchor's solid work in A Serious Man, while District 9 remains a serious possibility here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The White Ribbon
ALT: The Road
A Serious Man's Roger Deakins is always a threat here, and for my money, A Single Man featured the best cinematography of the year. But The Road's Javier Aguirresarobe could be the one who benefits if Nine registers as a zero with the Academy. It's definitely the one wearing the bulls-eye on its back in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
ALT: Coco Before Chanel
Shame that A Single Man isn't getting more attention for its classy threads, but so it goes for a film that has been criminally ignored this season. The most memorable costumes of the year, in my opinion, were Melanie Laurent's red dress and Brad Pitt's white tux in Inglourious Basterds. The stars of Nine basked in the glow of its high fashion, while the other three nominees all satisfy the Victorian quotient.
BEST EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up in the Air
ALT: District 9
Something tells me that A Serious Man and (500) Days of Summer will draw the short straws in this category, especially if all three of the sci-fi films score Best Picture nominations. I thought Alan Edward Bell did a great job handling Summer's unique structure and successfully charting the peaks and valleys of that doomed relationship. If the Coens are, for some reason, ignored in the Original Screenplay category, a consolation nomination could manifest itself here under their editing alias Roderick Jaynes. I give Star Trek the nod over District 9 because it felt like the fastest film of the year to me, although both could get in if Tarantino's longtime editor Sally Menke pays the price for his long, talky scenes. Up in the Air's Dana Glauberman is a well-respected pro so she's definitely in.
BEST MAKEUP
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek
ALT: Il Divo
Oscar loves its actors who age but the work in District 9 and Star Trek is too showy to be ignored, and I'd "imagine" Dr. Parnassus will steal that third spot thanks to Terry Gilliam's wacky vision.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up
ALT: Sherlock Holmes
UPSET ALERT! Another tricky category. I bet Michael Giacchino scores a well-deserved double nomination here for his work on Star Trek and Up, although the latter is the safer bet. Hans Zimmer was ineligible last year for The Dark Knight, so he could get some sympathy love for his work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat did some delightful work in Fantastic Mr. Fox. Hamlisch's marvelous score for The Informant! could be a critics-only thing but I think the veteran composer will hear his name, along with Abel Korzeniowski, whose work in A Single Man was the single best of the year. James Horner's Avatar score was actively forgettable but I doubt he'll be denied, especially since the Academy's orchestra will be playing his music all evening.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Avatar - 'I See You' by Leona Lewis and James Horner
Crazy Heart - 'The Weary Kind' by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
An Education - 'You've Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger' by Beth Rowley
Nine - 'Cinema Italiano' by Maury Yeston
The Princess and the Frog - 'Almost There' by Randy Newman
ALT: 'Down in New Orleans' from The Princess and the Frog
I really have no idea how this one goes, as the Music Branch is a fuckin' fickle bunch. If I was concerned about TV ratings, I would nominate U2 for singing "Happy Birthday" at this point. Crazy Heart's Bingham is guaranteed a nomination, as is Randy Newman, although I haven't heard any songs from that soundtrack so I'm not exactly a qualified expert. The Leona Lewis track at the end of Avatar was tacky and didn't really fit with the rest of the movie but Avatar has to get double-digit nominations somehow, right?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Who knows? Who cares? This is for the stat-padders.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
ALT: Up
Ditto. Except for the ongoing story about Transformers mixer Greg Russell, who has been nominated something like 11 times without winning once.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
ALT: 2012
2012 featured non-stop mayhem but something tells me that black hole in Star Trek will be the difference. Plus it was, you know, a good movie. The flashy effects of Transformers 2 could also sneak in here over District 9.
APPRX. FINAL TALLY:
Avatar - 10
Inglourious Basterds - 10
The Hurt Locker - 9
Star Trek - 7
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 5
Precious - 5
An Education - 4
Up - 4
Crazy Heart - 3
Nine - 3
The Blind Side - 2
The Last Station - 2
The Princess and the Frog - 2
Sherlock Holmes - 2
A Single Man - 2
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 2
The White Ribbon - 2
(500) Days of Summer - 1
Ajami - 1
The Beaches of Agnes - 1
Bright Star - 1
Burma VJ - 1
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs - 1
Coraline - 1
The Cove - 1
Every Little Step - 1
Fantastic Mr. Fox - 1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 1
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus - 1
The Informant! - 1
In the Loop - 1
Invictus - 1
Julie & Julia - 1
The Lovely Bones - 1
The Messenger - 1
Mugabe and the White Elephant - 1
A Prophet - 1
The Secret of Their Eyes - 1
A Serious Man - 1
Winter in Wartime - 1
The Young Victoria - 1
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