FINAL 2008 OSCAR PREDICTIONS and IF I HAD A BALLOT

This is The End. My only friend, The End.

It all comes down to this, gang. MY PREDICTIONS for the 81st Annual Academy Awards, as well as my own personal selections IF I HAD A BALLOT. It's pretty self-explanatory. Should Win is what I HOPE wins on Sunday night. That doesn't mean I necessarily thought their work was the best of the year (for instance, I'd give Best Supporting Actress to Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, but somehow she wasn't nominated), it just means that OF THE NOMINEES, this is who I would vote for. Likewise, just because I think someone WILL win, doesn't mean I think they SHOULD win. If you have an Office Oscar Pool, you can take these predictions to the bank, because they're money, baby!

There are a couple upsets sprinkled throughout, including both of the lead acting categories. Right now, the only other prognosticator picking Rourke AND Streep is Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere. I just think this is Mickey's year (Sean Penn just won for Mystic River) and Kate Winslet got nominated for the wrong performance, opening the door for Meryl Streep, who hasn't won since Sophie's Choice in 1983. I'd say she's every bit as due as Kate. Supporting Actress is a tight race (I even had difficult deciding who I'd vote for) but Penelope Cruz has a distinguished body of work behind her now, plus she's never won (sorry Marisa Tomei) and she has plenty of screentime (sorry Viola Davis), although that rarely matters in this category (ahem, Judi Dench). Original Screenplay is another one to watch. Dustin Lance Black has Milk's Best Picture nomination on his side but the Academy could choose to reward its first animated film and go with Wall-E. And no, I don't think The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will get shut-out. No way, no how. PLEASE NOTE: I will not be predicting any of the Short Film categories.

I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all my readers (i.e. friends and family) for checking out The InSneider. I hope you all enjoy the show and if you're in the Boston area, feel free to stop by The InSneider's temporary headquarters. It'll be a magical night to remember, so here's hoping Hugh Jackman has some surprises in store for us. So without further ado, here are my Final 2008 Oscar Predictions as well as my wishlist for Sunday night. The envelope, please...

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

SHOULD WIN: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

SHOULD WIN: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
WILL WIN: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, Doubt
WILL WIN: Meryl Streep, Doubt

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

SHOULD WIN: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
WILL WIN: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

SHOULD WIN: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
WILL WIN: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Wall-E

SHOULD WIN: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
WILL WIN: Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Wall-E

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

SHOULD WIN: John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
WILL WIN: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

SHOULD WIN: Kung Fu Panda
WILL WIN: Wall-E

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Betrayal
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

SHOULD WIN: Man on Wire
WILL WIN: Man on Wire

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz With Bashir, Israel

SHOULD WIN: Waltz With Bashir, Israel
WILL WIN: Waltz With Bashir, Israel

BEST ART DIRECTION

Changeling - Art Direction: James J. Murakami; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight - Art Direction: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Peter Lando
The Duchess - Art Direction: Michael Carlin; Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road - Art Direction: Kristi Zea; Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

SHOULD WIN: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL WIN: Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Tom Stern, Changeling

SHOULD WIN: Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL WIN: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Danny Glicker, Milk
Catherine Martin, Australia
Michael O’Connor, The Duchess
Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary Road

SHOULD WIN: Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL WIN: Michael O’Connor, The Duchess

BEST EDITING

Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Lee Smith, The Dark Knight
Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Frost/Nixon
Elliott Graham, Milk
Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire

SHOULD WIN: Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST MAKEUP

Greg Cannom, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan, The Dark Knight
Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz, Hellboy II: The Golden Army

SHOULD WIN: Greg Cannom, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL WIN: Greg Cannom, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST SCORE

Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, Wall-E

SHOULD WIN: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SONG

“Down to Earth,” Wall-E - Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman; Lyrics by Peter Gabriel
“Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire - Music by A.R. Rahman; Lyrics by Gulzar
“O Saya,” Slumdog Millionaire - Music and Lyrics by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasm

SHOULD WIN: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Dark Knight - Richard King
Iron Man - Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire - Tom Sayers
Wall-E - Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
Wanted - Wylie Stateman

SHOULD WIN: Richard King, The Dark Knight
WILL WIN: Richard King, The Dark Knight

BEST SOUND MIXING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
The Dark Knight - Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
Slumdog Millionaire - Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
Wall-E - Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
Wanted - Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montano and Petr Forejt

SHOULD WIN: Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick, The Dark Knight
WILL WIN: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt, Wall-E

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
The Dark Knight - Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
Iron Man - John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

SHOULD WIN: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WILL WIN: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Top 143 of 2008... So Far

Here they are, in a very particular set of orders. All films are judged on a 4-STAR system. Top TBD List COMING SOON!

THE STANDOUTS (24) - See these movies. They will not disappoint.

Tell No One ***1/2
Dear Zachary ***1/2
Doubt ***1/2
Man on Wire ***1/2
The Dark Knight ***1/2
Young@Heart ***1/2
Rachel Getting Married *** 1/2
The Wrestler ***1/2
Slumdog Millionaire ***1/2
Waltz with Bashir *** 1/2
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *** 1/2
Cloverfield ***1/2
Frost/Nixon ***
Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired (It had a qualifying run in NY) ***
Bigger, Stronger, Faster: The Side Effects of Being American ***
Let the Right One In ***
Vicky Cristina Barcelona ***
The Wackness ***
The Fall ***
Wendy and Lucy ***
Gran Torino ***
Nothing But the Truth ***
The Class ***
Elite Squad ***

THE GOOD (36) - All pretty solid/entertaining movies that exceeded my expectations, which are a funny thing, in that they inherently affect what you think of the films themselves.

Pineapple Express ***
Forgetting Sarah Marshall ***
Tropic Thunder ***
What Doesn't Kill You ***
I've Loved You So Long ***
Elegy ***
The Hammer ***
In Bruges ***
Zack and Miri Make a Porno ***
Bolt ***
Kung Fu Panda ***
Shine a Light ***
U2 3D ***
W. ***
Towelhead ***
Baghead ***
Sex and the City ***
American Teen ***
Wanted ***
Step Brothers ***
Battle in Seattle ***
Transsiberian ***
Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist ***
Tony Manero ***
Seven Pounds ***
Yes Man ***
The Incredible Hulk ***
Speed Racer ***
The Foot Fist Way ***
Mister Lonely ***
Ben X ***
Traitor ***
Afterschool ***
The Bank Job ***
Role Models ***
Timecrimes ***

THE GOOD BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BETTERS (21) - I wanted to like these movies more than I actually did. They're all enjoyable but they fall short of greatness. But just because they're listed here doesn't mean I liked 'The Good' films more, I just thought that the potential to be better existed and thus, they fell short of certain expectations.

Gomorrah ***
Milk ***
Revolutionary Road ***
Frozen River ***
The Reader ***
Hunger ***
Iron Man ***
Wall-E ***
Funny Games ***
Happy-Go-Lucky ** 1/2
Red **1/2
The Strangers **1/2
While She Was Out ** 1/2
Get Smart **1/2
Redbelt **1/2
Snow Angels **1/2
Body of Lies **1/2
21 **1/2
Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay **1/2
Charlie Bartlett **1/2
Paranoid Park **1/2

THE GUILTY PLEASURES (19) - People will rag on these movies but if you feel like actually giving them a chance, you should "definitely, maybe" catch up with them on DVD.

The Ruins ***
Lakeview Terrace ***
Rambo ***
Teeth ***
Trick 'r Treat **1/2
The Midnight Meat Train **1/2
Hellboy II: The Golden Army **1/2
Definitely, Maybe **1/2
Untraceable **1/2
Street Kings **1/2
Strange Wilderness **1/2
Frontier(s) **1/2
The Rocker **1/2
The Promotion **1/2
What Happens in Vegas **1/2
Drillbit Taylor **
College **
Pathology **
Mirrors **

THE UNDERWHELMING DISAPPOINTMENTS (33) - Whatever my expectations were, these movies failed to meet them for whatever reason. They all have their moments but ultimately, they're half-baked, at best.

Valkyrie **1/2
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian **1/2
Cassandra's Dream ** 1/2
Hamlet 2 **1/2
Defiance **1/2
Adam Resurrected **1/2
Quantum of Solace **
Blindness **
Burn After Reading **
Choke **
Miracle at St. Anna **
Changeling **
Pride and Glory **
Hancock **
RocknRolla **
Eagle Eye **
Four Christmases **
The Love Guru **
Super High Me **
You Don't Mess With the Zohan **
Jumper **
Vantage Point **
The Grand **
Quarantine **
Appaloosa **
Bedtime Stories **
Semi-Pro *1/2
Stop-Loss *1/2
Smart People *1/2
Be Kind Rewind *1/2
Leatherheads *1/2
Baby Mama *1/2
The Air I Breathe *1/2
Synecdoche, New York *1/2

THE ACTIVELY BAD (12) - I rolled my eyes multiple times and laughed unintentionally at all of these movies, which you should avoid at all costs. Consider yourselves warned.

Righteous Kill *1/2
Homo Erectus * 1/2
The Signal *
The Happening *
The Day the Earth Stood Still *
Anamorph *
Max Payne *
Surfer, Dude *
Saw V *
Shutter *
The Eye 1/2*
Prom Night 1/2*

COMING SOON: Che, The Visitor, Everlasting Moments, Sukiyaki Western Django, Shotgun Stories, In Search of a Midnight Kiss, Son of Rambow, Revanche, The House Bunny